Quote from Notmyopic on February 11, 2023, 5:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2023, 2:43 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 10, 2023, 6:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 4:27 pm

Personally after 2023 I think the Padres are “stuck” with Soto for 2024 unless they eat some salary or they add a prospect (that will not happen) just to move the money.

You're letting your dislike for Soto to visual on this statement.

SD will not need to eat any salary if/when they go to move Soto in 2024. Ohtani is making $30M this season, he is a FA, and there will be a bidding war for his services IF ANA decides to trade him.

Yes, Soto doesnt pitch. But he will be two years younger than Ohtani is this season, and even in a down year for Soto, still had a higher OPS+ than Ohtani. And Soto's career OPS+ is 18 points higher than Ohtani's.

IF it gets to the point that SD wants to shop Soto during the 2024 season, there will be plenty of bidders, even at a $30M salary for SD to move Soto. Wont be a haul like SD paid, but there still we be some decent return for Soto to help someone in a pennant race.

You are right that I am not a fan of Soto at $30MM … not until he shows me more in SD.

However, the $30MM may be his market value but it is the one year control in conjunction with that steep price tag that will make him unappealing to most teams.

As a FA Soto will get bidders well above $30MM and sign the mega contract … long term. It is the long term control that, in part, justifies that level of commitment for most teams.

Bottom line is that the Padres would need to find a buyer that: a) has the payroll space and wants to spend it; b) believes Soto for 1 year will pay for himself in a pennant run; c) actually need a corner OF; d) not have a better strategy in deploying $30MM over maybe multiple adds than going all in on one player.

Difference between Soto’s arbitration price and open market value as a player vs his value to a specific team for one year.

Probably an academic debate since believe Preller will not look to trade Soto and we have our LF for 2024 while still pursuing Ohtani for that DH/SP role. Then Soto walks in 2025. With Darvish in the fold and likely Machado extended … Ohtani may be the only major move next winter to create a World Series roster.

Ohtani - Bogaerts - Machado - Soto - Tatis should make for a pretty good base for the offense in 2024 with Nola, Cronenworth, Kim, and Grisham as a very strong supporting cast. Ohtani - Darvish - Musgrove provides the quality top 3 SP. That is enough for Seidler to bust the payroll through the next threshold in 2024. (Of course have to be able to sign Ohtani).

That top 5 of the batting order sounds like something out of a fevered dream.  Probably what it will end up being with Ohtanis price tag.

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2023, 7:48 am

Checked out the detail of Darvish's new deal ... pretty creative. Does include a full no trade clause.

1. 6 years / $108MM get them a $18MM AAV but takes him to age 42. IF they think the odds are that Darvish maybe has only four years of plus SP (maybe get lucky for more) ... take the $108MM over four years and get a $27MM AAV which his, in this market, a pretty fair value for his performance. So in a sense years 5 and 6 are "free" (or a form of deferred compensation).
2. The cash flow is interesting ... $24MM+$6MM bonus (2023), $15MM (2024); $20MM (2025); $15MM (2026); $14MM (2027); and $14MM (2028). No impact on AAV and luxury tax calculation but not sure the rationale on the annual differences. The $15MM drop in 2024 might signal they are positioning cash for a big signing for 2024 while holding on to Soto. Not an AAV issue but might signal that cash outlay does have a ceiling near term. At the other end the last two years at $14MM each does ease the pain if Darvish is no longer effective and is released (or injured) ... becomes more a Hosmer level "dead money" situation.

We all hope Darvish plays to the $27MM level for all six years but this deals does protect both sides.

Then to speculate on the $15MM salary drop in 2024 ... (lets put Ohtani aside) ... opens a window to sign potentially that Japanese pitcher or the Korean OF (or both) ... longer deals with modest year 1 escalating later in the contract to be funded by Soto's departure? Maybe extension bonuses for Cronenworth and/or Kim?

Seems odd to begin to worry about cash flow after the past few seasons focusing on AAV and luxury tax ... but that could begin to be part of the dialogue. Should note that Tatis' cash flow will start to accelerate soon and will enter into the rationale.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 11, 2023, 8:43 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2023, 7:48 am

Checked out the detail of Darvish's new deal ... pretty creative. Does include a full no trade clause.

1. 6 years / $108MM get them a $18MM AAV but takes him to age 42. IF they think the odds are that Darvish maybe has only four years of plus SP (maybe get lucky for more) ... take the $108MM over four years and get a $27MM AAV which his, in this market, a pretty fair value for his performance. So in a sense years 5 and 6 are "free" (or a form of deferred compensation).
2. The cash flow is interesting ... $24MM+$6MM bonus (2023), $15MM (2024); $20MM (2025); $15MM (2026); $14MM (2027); and $14MM (2028). No impact on AAV and luxury tax calculation but not sure the rationale on the annual differences. The $15MM drop in 2024 might signal they are positioning cash for a big signing for 2024 while holding on to Soto. Not an AAV issue but might signal that cash outlay does have a ceiling near term. At the other end the last two years at $14MM each does ease the pain if Darvish is no longer effective and is released (or injured) ... becomes more a Hosmer level "dead money" situation.

We all hope Darvish plays to the $27MM level for all six years but this deals does protect both sides.

Then to speculate on the $15MM salary drop in 2024 ... (lets put Ohtani aside) ... opens a window to sign potentially that Japanese pitcher or the Korean OF (or both) ... longer deals with modest year 1 escalating later in the contract to be funded by Soto's departure? Maybe extension bonuses for Cronenworth and/or Kim?

Seems odd to begin to worry about cash flow after the past few seasons focusing on AAV and luxury tax ... but that could begin to be part of the dialogue. Should note that Tatis' cash flow will start to accelerate soon and will enter into the rationale.

And the Hosmer drop too..

Looking foward to this in SD dugout

 

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1624399460104011776?t=QS-AlAqtmf8uap80uLMuRw&s=19

I am 💯 cheering for DR in WBC and am not sure if USA is even top 5 for me.. I will root for all the Padres teams and USA has none..

Quote from Randy Manese on February 11, 2023, 10:40 am

Except much the same salary extension structure for Machado - more money up front to match or surpass his peers, but declining a bit over the last 3-5 years of the 10 years extension that will keep his AAV very close to what it is today, 30M, maybe 32M.  Machado may not be playing 3b in the latter part of his contract but he could be at 1st base of DH - bat speed/hard contact rate will dictate whether he can be as effective as Nelson Cruz in the latter part of his career.

For our other major free agents at the end of the year, Snell and Hader, I'd let them walk and give them each a qualifying offer.  If they take it fine, if not we'll have close to 40M to pursue other free agents, like Aaron Nola and those tempting international free agents from Japan and Korea.  If Martin Perez and Joc Peterson can received qualifying offers, then why not Snell and Hader?  Still have a few days to negotiate with them exclusively even if they turn down the QO and certainly after they hit the open market.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on February 11, 2023, 10:50 am

I think having Darvish as your #4 or 5 starter will be fine in 2027 and 2028.  He's found a way to keep healthy and doesn't depend on velocity over finesse, although he still has decent velocity.  Think more Wainwright and Grienke than Verlander or Scherzer.  At 14M in 2027 and 2028 that will be a bargain for a veteran #4 or #5 starter.  Set up bullpen guys will be getting that by then.

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2023, 11:40 am

Quote from Randy Manese on February 11, 2023, 10:40 am

Except much the same salary extension structure for Machado - more money up front to match or surpass his peers, but declining a bit over the last 3-5 years of the 10 years extension that will keep his AAV very close to what it is today, 30M, maybe 32M.  Machado may not be playing 3b in the latter part of his contract but he could be at 1st base of DH - bat speed/hard contact rate will dictate whether he can be as effective as Nelson Cruz in the latter part of his career.

For our other major free agents at the end of the year, Snell and Hader, I'd let them walk and give them each a qualifying offer.  If they take it fine, if not we'll have close to 40M to pursue other free agents, like Aaron Nola and those tempting international free agents from Japan and Korea.  If Martin Perez and Joc Peterson can received qualifying offers, then why not Snell and Hader?  Still have a few days to negotiate with them exclusively even if they turn down the QO and certainly after they hit the open market.

 

Inclined to just let Hader walk given what we have seen in this year’s contract for top RP and rely on Suarez plus some up and comers. Same for Snell given his inconsistency over a full season and being a self admitted 5 inning guy. They (if good in 2023) will cost around $40MM+ combined on long term deals … think the Padres can more effectively deploy that.

Seems as though the Padres are focusing on keeping players that are really focused on being the best physically and mentally for playing the game … e.g. the love for Darvish, Machado, Musgrove, Bogaerts … not sure Snell fits that mold as a long term investment.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 11, 2023, 12:57 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 11, 2023, 11:40 am

Quote from Randy Manese on February 11, 2023, 10:40 am

Except much the same salary extension structure for Machado - more money up front to match or surpass his peers, but declining a bit over the last 3-5 years of the 10 years extension that will keep his AAV very close to what it is today, 30M, maybe 32M.  Machado may not be playing 3b in the latter part of his contract but he could be at 1st base of DH - bat speed/hard contact rate will dictate whether he can be as effective as Nelson Cruz in the latter part of his career.

For our other major free agents at the end of the year, Snell and Hader, I'd let them walk and give them each a qualifying offer.  If they take it fine, if not we'll have close to 40M to pursue other free agents, like Aaron Nola and those tempting international free agents from Japan and Korea.  If Martin Perez and Joc Peterson can received qualifying offers, then why not Snell and Hader?  Still have a few days to negotiate with them exclusively even if they turn down the QO and certainly after they hit the open market.

 

Inclined to just let Hader walk given what we have seen in this year’s contract for top RP and rely on Suarez plus some up and comers. Same for Snell given his inconsistency over a full season and being a self admitted 5 inning guy. They (if good in 2023) will cost around $40MM+ combined on long term deals … think the Padres can more effectively deploy that.

Seems as though the Padres are focusing on keeping players that are really focused on being the best physically and mentally for playing the game … e.g. the love for Darvish, Machado, Musgrove, Bogaerts … not sure Snell fits that mold as a long term investment.

Been thinking about a Manny extension.. 12/$336...$28AVV... yrs 1 to 5 Top in game pay $40 $40 $40 $40 $40.. last 7 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19

If Soto is Soto in 2023 can reverse 1st 5yrs and last 10 to give him 15/$550.. with lowish 1st to 5th yr..ramping up yrs 6 to 10 and then down again last 5.. $25 $25 $25,$25,$25 $50 $50 $50 $50 $50 $35 $35 $35 $35 $15 (AAV  $37)

Obviously AAV is constant BUT financially allows Siedler to adjust team's actual payroll ($$flow) so as to not take too big of a hit in actual dollars in any one yr

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 11, 2023, 1:13 pm

Agree with the QO's 💯

Yu becoming Wainright like in 3 or 4 yrs is actually right in line with Lesko/Snelling others arrivals one more top SP for 2024 (Othani/Nola/Urias...little gap to Yamamoto.. or a slight drop off to Snell or Gray types.. and we should be in excellent shape as AJP would have a few more drafts to further strengthen the system arms and bats...

Having.. the 4 bats (or 5 w/Othani) for 10 yrs and 1 2 and at worst #4 SP slots covered for 5yrs would make it very "organized" for AJP to plug/develop/ or trade for complimentary pieces around that incredible base...

BP /Bench probably the more turnover parts of the team  should we have such a talented base at Position and SP..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 13, 2023, 8:36 am

https://twitter.com/WillHolder9/status/1625170760942878726?t=Y1xb9orOntttXJfYJgBd0g&s=19

 

This makes me both hopeful and nervous