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2023 offseason
#3601 · February 10, 2023, 9:18 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 10, 2023, 8:39 amWith Soto being 24 and the recent wave of guys signing deals that take them into their early 40s you have to wonder what kind of a deal it would take to keep Soto. We know he turned down 440 over 15 from the Nats. Are we looking at 500+ over 17 or something?
I love Soto, but he's not a great defensive outfielder now. I think there's a very real chance he ends up as primarily a DH for a good portion of any long-term deal that he signs. If you can keep the AAV around 30m I think you consider it. If he's pushing for something significantly higher than that the money can probably better used elsewhere.
I understand he had a leg injury last season prior to coming to SD, and it greatly reduced his defense speed. Heard on XM on MLB from Eduardo Perez I believe, that he has really worked on his speed drills this offseason, and should be back to his regular form, where in 2019 he was a gold glove finalist. So I think he can man LF until age 34-36 easily.
IF he was to sign an extension this season, yes, I think it would be for 17 years, taking him to age 41. If he waits to his FA time, he would be 26 and a 15 year term should be realistic, once again taking him to age 41 as well.
He did turn down 15 years for $440M, which would be just shy of $30M AAV. I think that Judges contract and Ohtanis future contract will provide an frame for him to fall between. Probably the same or a little higher than Judges AAV since Soto is younger but not the same power as Judge. And lower than Ohtanis since Ohtani is also an upper level SP as well as a dominant bat.
Judge is at $40M per season and Ohtani is rumored to get close to $50M AAV.
So......15-17 years at an AAV of $42.5M, so between $637.5 to 722.5M depending on what age he is when he signs.
#3602 · February 10, 2023, 9:34 am
2024 offseason (assuming Manny extended)
SP Yamamoto (JPN)+ CF JHL (KBO) + Joc Pederson
VS
Extending Soto beyond 2024
* Obviously all would be together in 2024
Lee Jung-Hoo’s connection to HSK is even closer, aside from being former teammates. Lee looks up to Kim and has been taking swing advice & working out together in the off-season. If Pads find room for JHL then they would lock up South Korea fandom/market. https://t.co/RAOsgZeRXB
— GoPads (@ehnprodigy) February 10, 2023
#3603 · February 10, 2023, 10:05 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 10, 2023, 9:34 am2024 offseason (assuming Manny extended)
SP Yamamoto (JPN)+ CF JHL (KBO) + Joc Pederson
VS
Extending Soto beyond 2024
* Obviously all would be together in 2024
https://twitter.com/ehnprodigy/status/1624061913100390473?t=k5w-jHRjfZbHzcynD0MCNg&s=19
I think I would wait and see what kind of season we get from Grisham before investing a lot of money into a Korean player that is unproven in the MLB.
If Jung-hoo's stats can transfer to MLB, then he is obviously a great leadoff candidate. However, for someone with the speed to play CF, got to wonder why he is not a better base stealer? Is stealing bases not a strategy in Korea? Does he need some better coaching at stealing?
And I know that he is working with Kim to change his swing to fit ML, but it will take some time to adjust.
Gotta see what the real Grisham is this season, with the lack of the shift, and with all the other bats around him, and see what we have in Grisham, before switching gears to a new direction.
#3604 · February 10, 2023, 12:16 pm
Well both Grisham and the Korean OF have 2023 to make their cases for the future. Remember that Grisham is only controlled through 2025 (but relatively cheap until then) … Soto may be out after 2024 … Engel will be out after 2023 …. Azocar has a lot to show to be a ML semi-regular … nothing near term in the minors.
So, if the Padres see big upside in the Korean OF, signing him on a longer term deal fits the potential Padre needs allowing a 2024 decent 4 man OF rotation … and with Cruz likely gone after this season … more room for DH coverage.
Sounds as though this guy is a decent CF and would avoid needing to move Tatis to CF if Grisham injured. Also, at some point, opens the opportunity to deal Grisham as a gold glove CF when MLB teams need real quality CF.
If Preller sees quality … he will try to sign him and deal with the next steps later. They did not NEED a SS but signed Bogaerts … so even if they don’t NEED a CF that will not stop Preller.
#3605 · February 10, 2023, 2:00 pm
Not to beat a dead horse but simply to continue to play Devils advocate here.
Fenn said: "If the payroll still fits … guessing they will not deal Soto for just prospects and prefer to run with his bat towards a 2024 World Series (not much to replace him in LF). Preller was willing to give up elite prospects for three playoff runs … no reason for him to change that view. Then let him walk."
I get keeping "the band" together in 2024 to go for the Series win(esp if we don't win it this year) but Soto will cost $30 mil in arbitration.
"IF" AJ does decide to trade him to recoup some prospects that $30 mil would go a long way to replace him in LF.
I just keep thinking saving money AND signing a guy like Ian Happ for instance AND gaining a top prospect+ could still be an option.
Not trying to "will" Soto out of here but if it happens I would at least get it.
#3606 · February 10, 2023, 2:21 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2023, 2:00 pmNot to beat a dead horse but simply to continue to play Devils advocate here.
Fenn said: "If the payroll still fits … guessing they will not deal Soto for just prospects and prefer to run with his bat towards a 2024 World Series (not much to replace him in LF). Preller was willing to give up elite prospects for three playoff runs … no reason for him to change that view. Then let him walk."
I get keeping "the band" together in 2024 to go for the Series win(esp if we don't win it this year) but Soto will cost $30 mil in arbitration.
"IF" AJ does decide to trade him to recoup some prospects that $30 mil would go a long way to replace him in LF.
I just keep thinking saving money AND signing a guy like Ian Happ for instance AND gaining a top prospect+ could still be an option.
Not trying to "will" Soto out of here but if it happens I would at least get it.
If Machado is extended... Manny/Tatis and Xander should give us a 5 yr WS contention window (foundationally speaking) or longer...and likely a 10 yr playoff contention one yrs 6-10 of their deals ... Pitching will be equally important we need at least 3 studs (as we currently do) and a solid to elite BP. Keeping Soto beyond 2024 I think opens that WS contention window for a decade as Soto and Tatis will still be in their late prime (34) or not quite on the back end of their careers yet..
Soto's exodus is not necessarily an end to this journey we are currently on.. as long as funds are allocated to improving in his absence
#3607 · February 10, 2023, 4:27 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2023, 2:00 pmNot to beat a dead horse but simply to continue to play Devils advocate here.
Fenn said: "If the payroll still fits … guessing they will not deal Soto for just prospects and prefer to run with his bat towards a 2024 World Series (not much to replace him in LF). Preller was willing to give up elite prospects for three playoff runs … no reason for him to change that view. Then let him walk."
I get keeping "the band" together in 2024 to go for the Series win(esp if we don't win it this year) but Soto will cost $30 mil in arbitration.
"IF" AJ does decide to trade him to recoup some prospects that $30 mil would go a long way to replace him in LF.
I just keep thinking saving money AND signing a guy like Ian Happ for instance AND gaining a top prospect+ could still be an option.
Not trying to "will" Soto out of here but if it happens I would at least get it.
The scenarios abound when it comes to Soto’s future. A couple of points:
1. I think it may be harder to deal Soto ($30MM/1 year) than many think let alone get a top prospect in return. There is not going to be many teams interested in shelling out that money for one year of Soto (maybe no team). Has to be a clear contender with a lot of “free cash” and a major hole in the offense. Then they will know the Padres want to trade him and realize they are the only potential buyer … then play hard ball. They too will consider their alternative with $30MM … like signing Happ and more.
2. If they did would not seek a major replacement LF and use the “saved” $30MM on and elite upper rotation arm. Go with a lesser option that the Happ level OF believing that the rest of the offense is strong enough to carry the team. Maybe use any excess to add a plus catcher if Nola/Campusano are found wanting.
Personally after 2023 I think the Padres are “stuck” with Soto for 2024 unless they eat some salary or they add a prospect (that will not happen) just to move the money.
#3608 · February 10, 2023, 6:47 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 4:27 pmPersonally after 2023 I think the Padres are “stuck” with Soto for 2024 unless they eat some salary or they add a prospect (that will not happen) just to move the money.
You're letting your dislike for Soto to visual on this statement.
SD will not need to eat any salary if/when they go to move Soto in 2024. Ohtani is making $30M this season, he is a FA, and there will be a bidding war for his services IF ANA decides to trade him.
Yes, Soto doesnt pitch. But he will be two years younger than Ohtani is this season, and even in a down year for Soto, still had a higher OPS+ than Ohtani. And Soto's career OPS+ is 18 points higher than Ohtani's.
IF it gets to the point that SD wants to shop Soto during the 2024 season, there will be plenty of bidders, even at a $30M salary for SD to move Soto. Wont be a haul like SD paid, but there still we be some decent return for Soto to help someone in a pennant race.
#3609 · February 10, 2023, 6:57 pm
Just found out Steve Wilson was the 1st pitcher in MLB history to close a game and the very next day Start a game.. pretty cool to do that (historical 1st) and do it in your rookie yr
#3610 · February 10, 2023, 8:39 pm
BREAKING: Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. has requested a trade.
Friction between the two sides has grown in recent weeks over his contract, the upcoming world baseball classic, his health, and his playing ability.
Atlanta will listen to offers, but has all the power.
— LionInTexas (@LionInTexas10) February 11, 2023
Oh... Is he Padres material...? Asking for a friend
LIES LIES LIES to rain on our Yu Darvish parade..
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