Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 7:19 am

Actually a few clubs are looking to add LHRP and I suspect they all view the demands of the remaining FA are too high. The FA are probably waiting for a team to crack and come up in their offers … maybe waiting for ST injuries.

So, Pomeranz could be in play IF he shows healthy and effective in ST. AT 1 year / $10MM agree the best return is a mid level prospect.

However, from the Padres perspective, IF Pomeranz is healthy and pitching well do they want to trade him just to save the money? That decision may rest on the health of Hader and Hill as the #1, #2 LHRP and one (or more) of the other LHRP options looking good enough to step in at #3. I exclude Morejon for this call since he is more targeted for the #6 SP/long RP and probably want a LHRP ticketed for that role.

So, should be carefully evaluation Lopez (Rule 5 make it or sent back), Castillo (still on track to recover from injuries), Cosgrove (somewhat of an unknown but good enough to get added to the 40 man), and Kerr (probably not really much of a future). They are all RP. Outside chance Padres could gamble on a conversion of Groome or Weathers to the pen. Then IF the RHRP are all lights out … maybe they go with only 2 LHRP and Morejon and keep a RHRP.

Given the primary objective is building the best bullpen for a pennant run … and keep quality in AAA for call-ups, ST is needed to truly evaluate the 2023 projection for all the candidates. So IF they deal Pomeranz it maybe near the end of ST.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 10, 2023, 7:38 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 7:19 am

So, should be carefully evaluation Lopez (Rule 5 make it or sent back), Castillo (still on track to recover from injuries), Cosgrove (somewhat of an unknown but good enough to get added to the 40 man), and Kerr (probably not really much of a future).

I think the performance of Lopez will be essential for the possibility of trading Pomeranz as well. If SD considers Lopez and Pomeranz fairly equal, the savings of being able to send Pomeranz to someone like CHC, could be huge. Being able to put an extra $9M towards a deadline trade, would allow Preller to have more flexibility in the avenues that he pursues at that time.

Heres hoping all are healthy and effective, and SD can make a good baseball move and get us across the finish line.

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 7:44 am

I don’t think the Padres will make the call on Soto until 2024 … and much of that call will be based on the team’s 2023 performance (and Soto’s). Machado’s extension will be a critical factor. An offense with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts … all All-Star Level long term high paid … is the basis of a quality offense with only needing a supporting cast of quality players … not necessarily super stars.

Pitching will still be the primary upgrade need behind Darvish and Musgrove … add a strong top of the rotation arm for 2024 on a longer term deal. That will cost. I could also keep an eye out for a catching upgrade … Nola is aging, Campusano his a lot to prove, and Salas is years away.

Machado first then next winter the FA/trade moves to get that SP and maybe catcher will set the priority with Soto.

If the payroll still fits … guessing they will not deal Soto for just prospects and prefer to run with his bat towards a 2024 World Series (not much to replace him in LF). Preller was willing to give up elite prospects for three playoff runs … no reason for him to change that view. Then let him walk.

What might alter that is the signing of Ohtani (one big AAV) providing SP and offense coupled with a second major SP add and a major catcher add. That combo would be a major impact on payroll … but would be locking down the team for several years … and Soto’s arb at about $30MM and the uncertainty of signing as a FA might just make him expendable but don’t expect all that big a haul for 1 year at $30MM … very few teams will even be interested at that price.

I expect him to play out his time in SD and go FA after 2024 with two World Series appearances in 2023 and 2024.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 10, 2023, 8:32 am

I think with the action of the last couple of years, we dont really know how high Seidler is willing to go payroll wise to win a World Series. I mean two years ago we did not think they would go over $150M in team pay, and now we are kissing $275M. We know that they will; so far, extend the budget to fit the right person/player that fits the type of player SD wants on its roster. And maybe that declines slightly after winning a World Series, since the pressure would be off at that time.

With that being said, looking forward, and with regards to budget consider the following. At this time, we have 4 players signed with no opt outs, Tatis ($24.29M), Bogaerts ($24.45M), Musgrove ($20M), and now Darvish ($18M). That is $86.74M for those four, and assuming an extension for Machado ($34M), that would put SD base CBT for the big 5 at $120.74M leaving about $110M± for support players to 3 bats and 2 SPs without exceeding the CBT first level. That should go a long ways towards supporting sustainable championship caliber team going forward.

If you were to add in another big salary, $4oM for Soto or $50M, that really cuts down the amount of dispersible dollars for filling out a roster. There is a big difference between $60-70M and $115M when filling out a roster. Unless we know we can count on some prospects coming, I think Soto and/or Ohtani are big expenses that may not be worth it in aspects of building a long term successful team.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 10, 2023, 8:32 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 10, 2023, 6:15 am

Read a blurb on MLBTR where CHC are looking to add a LHRP or two. Now there are still some good/decent FA options out there in Chaffin, Britton, Smith, and maybe Hand.

Wondering if SD could get CHC interested in Pomeranz. When healthy, he is probably behind only Chaffin in performance. And since CHC is not really close to the CBT level, they could actually use both Chaffin and Pomeranz, and not need to send someone in a salary offset move. Preller could just get a "lotto" level prospect back, and relieve some money from SD's CBT level.

LAA also looking for BP help... OAK could use a cheap Closer (aka Garcia).. almost every team is still looking for BP help

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 10, 2023, 8:39 am

With Soto being 24 and the recent wave of guys signing deals that take them into their early 40s you have to wonder what kind of a deal it would take to keep Soto. We know he turned down 440 over 15 from the Nats. Are we looking at 500+ over 17 or something?

I love Soto, but he's not a great defensive outfielder now. I think there's a very real chance he ends up as primarily a DH for a good portion of any long-term deal that he signs. If you can keep the AAV around 30m I think you consider it. If he's pushing for something significantly higher than that the money can probably better used elsewhere.

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2023, 9:07 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 10, 2023, 8:39 am

With Soto being 24 and the recent wave of guys signing deals that take them into their early 40s you have to wonder what kind of a deal it would take to keep Soto. We know he turned down 440 over 15 from the Nats. Are we looking at 500+ over 17 or something?

I love Soto, but he's not a great defensive outfielder now. I think there's a very real chance he ends up as primarily a DH for a good portion of any long-term deal that he signs. If you can keep the AAV around 30m I think you consider it. If he's pushing for something significantly higher than that the money can probably better used elsewhere.

Soto's contract will be "interesting" as a FA. A lot depends on him rebounding to his pre-2022 form but if he does and is a $40MM AAV ... could be a base 15 year deal taking him to age 40 but with opt outs after 5 and 10 years if the overall MLB payroll structure continues to escalate and he wants to dive in again for more money. So a $600MM deal? Sort of depends on Boras but could go a lot shorter with a much higher AAV (gets more money earlier) and plan to do better in his next FA round to max out the money for the 15 years.

With potentially Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts around for 10 years ... and players do get older and skills deteriorate at different paces ... the escape route of moving a aging player to DH really only works for one at a time. Add Soto to that trio and the challenge is greater. Could be moving to a time with big money invested in no trade players who are under preforming blocking the next generation of prospects. Basically can really over do this type of signing for "short term" benefit (with no guarantee) causing a major future problem. At some level have to balance the "elite" players with the development of the support players.

A year from now we should have a clear picture.

Quote from dusty on February 10, 2023, 9:09 am

If you concede to not being able to re-sign/extend Soto but sign Ohtani on top of extending Machado...do you take the penalties of the Luxury tax and roll with having Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado, Darvish, Musgrove, Soto, and Soto all on the same team for one glorious season?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 10, 2023, 9:12 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 10, 2023, 8:39 am

With Soto being 24 and the recent wave of guys signing deals that take them into their early 40s you have to wonder what kind of a deal it would take to keep Soto. We know he turned down 440 over 15 from the Nats. Are we looking at 500+ over 17 or something?

I love Soto, but he's not a great defensive outfielder now. I think there's a very real chance he ends up as primarily a DH for a good portion of any long-term deal that he signs. If you can keep the AAV around 30m I think you consider it. If he's pushing for something significantly higher than that the money can probably better used elsewhere.

I think 15/600 is where Boras would say Yes right now.. I think Padres will offer 15/525 and see if that = a Yes..thats $40 AAV and $35 AAV respectably...

I keep going back and forth on this...nice to have Soto longterm at his age ..BUT if Manny + Soto + the others are all locked in WE are going to need an equal "track record" or > from AJP with regards to our system.. which has graduated for us or others P Fried/Lauer/Quantrill/Paddack/Eflin/Cease/Bednar/Wilson/Gore/Munoz/etc...

If we can have some mix of pitchers = to or able to be moved for similar guys to the above list over the next 4 seasons we will be in great shape..

Same with position players - Renfroe/Margot/Crone/Azocar/Naylor/France/Mejia/Miller/Tupica/Jamkowski/Urias/CJ/Reyes/Campy etc... again a big range of talent levels but again players who would fit anywhere from 5 to 13 over the next 4 yrs as well .. and again traded for or developed from draft/signing to mlb doesn't matter ..just in pre-arb yrs in SD.. with the 4 Horsemen 1 to 4.. the roster could be a mix of FA (in the Cruz + Carp type mold).. (1 of Kim/Grish/or Jake staying put(extended)... and the group of upcoming pre arb prospects in out minors now or soon to be...

Having 4 position players locked up.. and 2 top of the order arms ..makes it a lot more feasible to fill out a roster with $60 to $100 mil vs not having those guys