Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 10:17 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 7:31 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 7:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 8:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2023, 6:51 pm

Machado has an AAV of 30M, which is the among the lowest for the top 4 highly paid 3b in the league.  Devers, starting in 2024, will have an AAV of 29,100M so that's not a good comparison of what Machado wants. Rendon's contract has an AAV or 35M while Arenado has been getting paid 35M per year since 2020 and will continue to get paid that amount through 2024.  My thought is that is what Machado wants - to be paid equally as his peers (even though Rendon has not earned it!) so my guess is that he gets bumped up to 35M per year, maybe even 35.5 - 36M with a lower amount in his declining extended years to take down the AAV a bit to somewhere around what it is now.  That's how Arenado's contract is structured.

With Padres having approximately 54M AAV coming off the books just from Darvish, Snell, Hader and Pomeranz if Machado signs such an extension they could go all in for 2 very good SPs from among Nola, Severino, Giolito Montgomery or even Urias (despite his personal issues), oldies like Lynn, Maeda or Morton or even re-sign Snell or Darvish.   In fact, Snell might even take the qualifying offer the Padres will extend to him, Darvish and possibly Hader, although the later would really cut into our ability to compete for a top shelf SP.  If you move Soto and his 30M, you get even more flexibility.

Even before that, however, I still think Preller has something up his sleeve to strengthen the current rotation although it might not be until the trading deadline.

 

 

 

Isn't Arenado's AAV like $28 though?... I mean if Manny wants to be the highest paid 3B for the next 5 yrs ...write ot up as 10 yrs $310.. $36 1-5 (age 32- 36) $26 6-10 (age 37 to 41)..

Keep in mind that the existing contracts for the comps were signed in the past … and before the recent “inflation” of contracts. $310 will not get it done … Machado does like money (that is why he is in SD not elsewhere). He will look at all recent contract comps not just 3B. If he got $30MM AAV in 2019 … and arguably improved his stock while contracts inflated … he is not settling for near status quo.

Actually he may look at Tatis’ contract and want to surpass that total contract value while referencing the last 7 years of Tatis’ deal at $36MM/yr. Pretty sure he will push his on-going PROVEN production, ability to play every day, and his team leadership vs an immature, injury prone, 14 year projection in Tatis. He will have a good argument.

 

I am comping with current deals

Boggarts 11 $280

Turner 11 $300

Manny 10 $310?? 11 $341.. is substantially more

Dec 2019 ... Rendon ... $35MM AAV

Mar 2021 ... Lindor ... $34.1MM

Feb 2019 ... Arenado ... $33.4MM

Jan 2023 ... Correa ... $33.3MM

Nov 2021 ... Seager ... $32.5MM

And as a bonus comp using the FA years bought out in his contract from Feb 2021 ... Tatis got a $32MM AAV for those FA years ... from the Padres.

$31MM AAV in 2023 for Machado will be topped by some team ... if not the Padres.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 10:46 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 10:17 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 7:31 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 7:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 8:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2023, 6:51 pm

Machado has an AAV of 30M, which is the among the lowest for the top 4 highly paid 3b in the league.  Devers, starting in 2024, will have an AAV of 29,100M so that's not a good comparison of what Machado wants. Rendon's contract has an AAV or 35M while Arenado has been getting paid 35M per year since 2020 and will continue to get paid that amount through 2024.  My thought is that is what Machado wants - to be paid equally as his peers (even though Rendon has not earned it!) so my guess is that he gets bumped up to 35M per year, maybe even 35.5 - 36M with a lower amount in his declining extended years to take down the AAV a bit to somewhere around what it is now.  That's how Arenado's contract is structured.

With Padres having approximately 54M AAV coming off the books just from Darvish, Snell, Hader and Pomeranz if Machado signs such an extension they could go all in for 2 very good SPs from among Nola, Severino, Giolito Montgomery or even Urias (despite his personal issues), oldies like Lynn, Maeda or Morton or even re-sign Snell or Darvish.   In fact, Snell might even take the qualifying offer the Padres will extend to him, Darvish and possibly Hader, although the later would really cut into our ability to compete for a top shelf SP.  If you move Soto and his 30M, you get even more flexibility.

Even before that, however, I still think Preller has something up his sleeve to strengthen the current rotation although it might not be until the trading deadline.

 

 

 

Isn't Arenado's AAV like $28 though?... I mean if Manny wants to be the highest paid 3B for the next 5 yrs ...write ot up as 10 yrs $310.. $36 1-5 (age 32- 36) $26 6-10 (age 37 to 41)..

Keep in mind that the existing contracts for the comps were signed in the past … and before the recent “inflation” of contracts. $310 will not get it done … Machado does like money (that is why he is in SD not elsewhere). He will look at all recent contract comps not just 3B. If he got $30MM AAV in 2019 … and arguably improved his stock while contracts inflated … he is not settling for near status quo.

Actually he may look at Tatis’ contract and want to surpass that total contract value while referencing the last 7 years of Tatis’ deal at $36MM/yr. Pretty sure he will push his on-going PROVEN production, ability to play every day, and his team leadership vs an immature, injury prone, 14 year projection in Tatis. He will have a good argument.

 

I am comping with current deals

Boggarts 11 $280

Turner 11 $300

Manny 10 $310?? 11 $341.. is substantially more

Dec 2019 ... Rendon ... $35MM AAV

Mar 2021 ... Lindor ... $34.1MM

Feb 2019 ... Arenado ... $33.4MM

Jan 2023 ... Correa ... $33.3MM

Nov 2021 ... Seager ... $32.5MM

And as a bonus comp using the FA years bought out in his contract from Feb 2021 ... Tatis got a $32MM AAV for those FA years ... from the Padres.

$31MM AAV in 2023 for Machado will be topped by some team ... if not the Padres.

Arenado deal has him making $15mil at age 37... his high is $35... my proposed deal has Manny making $36 at 32 33 34 35 and 36 yrs old .. and $25mil per from 37 38 39 40 41.. Arenado would have to resign as a 38 yr old for 4/120 to beat Mannys deal I proposed above

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 11:12 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 10:46 am

Arenado deal has him making $15mil at age 37... his high is $35... my proposed deal has Manny making $36 at 32 33 34 35 and 36 yrs old .. and $25mil per from 37 38 39 40 41.. Arenado would have to resign as a 38 yr old for 4/120 to beat Mannys deal I proposed above

The money per age played is not important. Under the idea that Seidler will keep this team at this salary level for years to come, AAV is what matters.

My guess is Machado, will want to outpace the AAV of Rendon (inferior to Machado) and being compensated as arguably the best 3B in MLB. So whatever length of years you think works 8, 9, 10, the AAV will need to be at least $36M per season, maybe $38M per season. And he might want to see if he can eclipse Judges AAV of $40M, so $41M per season? So, a 10 year deal will need to be at least somewhere in the $360-380M range to keep Machado from walking away.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 11:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 11:12 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 10:46 am

Arenado deal has him making $15mil at age 37... his high is $35... my proposed deal has Manny making $36 at 32 33 34 35 and 36 yrs old .. and $25mil per from 37 38 39 40 41.. Arenado would have to resign as a 38 yr old for 4/120 to beat Mannys deal I proposed above

The money per age played is not important. Under the idea that Seidler will keep this team at this salary level for years to come, AAV is what matters.

My guess is Machado, will want to outpace the AAV of Rendon (inferior to Machado) and being compensated as arguably the best 3B in MLB. So whatever length of years you think works 8, 9, 10, the AAV will need to be at least $36M per season, maybe $38M per season. And he might want to see if he can eclipse Judges AAV of $40M, so $41M per season? So, a 10 year deal will need to be at least somewhere in the $360-380M range to keep Machado from walking away.

Keep in mind that a fair bet other teams will be in the bidding and contracts have escalated .... his case for an AAV in the mid-30s will be strong and met by some team.

Probably will shoot for a total contract at or above $350MM and an AAV at or above $35MM and go to the highest bidder.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 12:01 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 11:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 11:12 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 10:46 am

Arenado deal has him making $15mil at age 37... his high is $35... my proposed deal has Manny making $36 at 32 33 34 35 and 36 yrs old .. and $25mil per from 37 38 39 40 41.. Arenado would have to resign as a 38 yr old for 4/120 to beat Mannys deal I proposed above

The money per age played is not important. Under the idea that Seidler will keep this team at this salary level for years to come, AAV is what matters.

My guess is Machado, will want to outpace the AAV of Rendon (inferior to Machado) and being compensated as arguably the best 3B in MLB. So whatever length of years you think works 8, 9, 10, the AAV will need to be at least $36M per season, maybe $38M per season. And he might want to see if he can eclipse Judges AAV of $40M, so $41M per season? So, a 10 year deal will need to be at least somewhere in the $360-380M range to keep Machado from walking away.

Keep in mind that a fair bet other teams will be in the bidding and contracts have escalated .... his case for an AAV in the mid-30s will be strong and met by some team.

Probably will shoot for a total contract at or above $350MM and an AAV at or above $35MM and go to the highest bidder.

I dont think he will necessarily go to the highest bidder.. Turner didnt.. I think Manny and his wife are quite happy in SD and may take a lesser deal to stay.. as long as Padres are in the ballpark like Phillies were on Turner..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 12:02 pm

Who is a rookie for the Padres as potential 26 man roster

Lopez

Campusano?

Honeywell

Groome

Batten

Rosario

Anyone else?

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 12:02 pm

Who is a rookie for the Padres as potential 26 man roster

Lopez

Campusano?

Honeywell

Groome

Batten

Rosario

Anyone else?

Depending on trades, injuries, and ST performance ... would keep an eye out for Cosgrove (LHRP) and Filipe (RHRP). Long shots but Padres will want to clean out some RP and injuries will happen.

Not sure the quality of these two BUT Padres seemed to think enough to add Filipe to the 40 man at the end of last season so he did not become a FA and Cosgrove was the only prospect added to the 40 man so as to be protected from the Rule 5. Padres may see more than was apparent to me.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 1:39 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 7:20 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 31, 2023, 6:08 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:43 pm

2023 will be very revealing around Soto … massive production / hype while in WASH turning down a mega long term deal and with Boras as his agent angling for a $50MM AAV. However, in his stint with SD (and actually in 2022 with WASH) he was not $50MM man … good stats but not an impact bat and, for me, just annoying in the batter’s box … not feeling the joy.

Hopefully he rebounds to his previous WASH level (I am assuming those stats had some more impact). Then the issue for Preller is does he hold … make a QO … and let him walk or trade him for a decent prospect(s) and redeploy the approx $30MM for 2024.  I don’t think they should re-sign him for his asking price.

Agree that Ohtani is probably not in the future …

So, the wild card becomes Machado … made himself a cornerstone of the Padres roster and expect the Padres make him the priority. Guessing he will shoot for (and get) at least a $350MM/10 year deal. If they get a deal before he opts out (this is an AAV game) he might not opt out (keeping the $150MM/5 years) BUT add a second deal to begin when the current deal ends for $200MM/5 years).

Does Machado want more? Does Machado prefer to be on the East Coast (closer to his home in MIA)? Not a slam dunk signing.

With big money into Bogaerts and Tatis … agree that potentially a better overall team can be made by deploying the cost over more high end players.

Machado has  10M house in Coronado. I don't think Miami as his home is that much of an issue.

I believe he also just built a big house in MIA … as it stands sort of a two city guy.

Did look back and Machado bought an $11MM home in FLA (2019) and in 2020 built another home in FA north of $7MM … don’t know if he sold the first. So, don’t really think the fact that he has built a home on Coronado is a factor one way or the other (house can be sold).

At a $300MM contract … he can play in real estate without any commitment.

In the long run the FLA lifestyle with a strong Cuban/Dominican/Puerto Rican influence fits him and his wife more than San Diego and, no income tax which will be important for his investment portfolio. He will end up at some point FLA.

Now he also has the money to just hop from coast to coast in season / out of season if the Padres put the best deal on the table. But if they don’t ….

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 1, 2023, 2:04 pm

I don't see a Florida team being in the bidding though....neither will pay $35 mil per.....nor Atlanta.