Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 31, 2023, 5:31 pm

I don't think you can rule anything out with Peter and AJ in charge. We know AJ gets fixated on his guys and Ohtani is one of his guys. He went after him hard when he came over and there are reports out that he plans to make a big push for him again. I don't think it's likely that they add Ohtani while keeping all of the existing big contracts, but I wouldn't call it a pipe dream either.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:43 pm

2023 will be very revealing around Soto … massive production / hype while in WASH turning down a mega long term deal and with Boras as his agent angling for a $50MM AAV. However, in his stint with SD (and actually in 2022 with WASH) he was not $50MM man … good stats but not an impact bat and, for me, just annoying in the batter’s box … not feeling the joy.

Hopefully he rebounds to his previous WASH level (I am assuming those stats had some more impact). Then the issue for Preller is does he hold … make a QO … and let him walk or trade him for a decent prospect(s) and redeploy the approx $30MM for 2024.  I don’t think they should re-sign him for his asking price.

Agree that Ohtani is probably not in the future …

So, the wild card becomes Machado … made himself a cornerstone of the Padres roster and expect the Padres make him the priority. Guessing he will shoot for (and get) at least a $350MM/10 year deal. If they get a deal before he opts out (this is an AAV game) he might not opt out (keeping the $150MM/5 years) BUT add a second deal to begin when the current deal ends for $200MM/5 years).

Does Machado want more? Does Machado prefer to be on the East Coast (closer to his home in MIA)? Not a slam dunk signing.

With big money into Bogaerts and Tatis … agree that potentially a better overall team can be made by deploying the cost over more high end players.

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 31, 2023, 6:08 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:43 pm

2023 will be very revealing around Soto … massive production / hype while in WASH turning down a mega long term deal and with Boras as his agent angling for a $50MM AAV. However, in his stint with SD (and actually in 2022 with WASH) he was not $50MM man … good stats but not an impact bat and, for me, just annoying in the batter’s box … not feeling the joy.

Hopefully he rebounds to his previous WASH level (I am assuming those stats had some more impact). Then the issue for Preller is does he hold … make a QO … and let him walk or trade him for a decent prospect(s) and redeploy the approx $30MM for 2024.  I don’t think they should re-sign him for his asking price.

Agree that Ohtani is probably not in the future …

So, the wild card becomes Machado … made himself a cornerstone of the Padres roster and expect the Padres make him the priority. Guessing he will shoot for (and get) at least a $350MM/10 year deal. If they get a deal before he opts out (this is an AAV game) he might not opt out (keeping the $150MM/5 years) BUT add a second deal to begin when the current deal ends for $200MM/5 years).

Does Machado want more? Does Machado prefer to be on the East Coast (closer to his home in MIA)? Not a slam dunk signing.

With big money into Bogaerts and Tatis … agree that potentially a better overall team can be made by deploying the cost over more high end players.

Machado has  10M house in Coronado. I don't think Miami as his home is that much of an issue.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2023, 6:51 pm

Machado has an AAV of 30M, which is the among the lowest for the top 4 highly paid 3b in the league.  Devers, starting in 2024, will have an AAV of 29,100M so that's not a good comparison of what Machado wants. Rendon's contract has an AAV or 35M while Arenado has been getting paid 35M per year since 2020 and will continue to get paid that amount through 2024.  My thought is that is what Machado wants - to be paid equally as his peers (even though Rendon has not earned it!) so my guess is that he gets bumped up to 35M per year, maybe even 35.5 - 36M with a lower amount in his declining extended years to take down the AAV a bit to somewhere around what it is now.  That's how Arenado's contract is structured.

With Padres having approximately 54M AAV coming off the books just from Darvish, Snell, Hader and Pomeranz if Machado signs such an extension they could go all in for 2 very good SPs from among Nola, Severino, Giolito Montgomery or even Urias (despite his personal issues), oldies like Lynn, Maeda or Morton or even re-sign Snell or Darvish.   In fact, Snell might even take the qualifying offer the Padres will extend to him, Darvish and possibly Hader, although the later would really cut into our ability to compete for a top shelf SP.  If you move Soto and his 30M, you get even more flexibility.

Even before that, however, I still think Preller has something up his sleeve to strengthen the current rotation although it might not be until the trading deadline.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 7:20 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 31, 2023, 6:08 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:43 pm

2023 will be very revealing around Soto … massive production / hype while in WASH turning down a mega long term deal and with Boras as his agent angling for a $50MM AAV. However, in his stint with SD (and actually in 2022 with WASH) he was not $50MM man … good stats but not an impact bat and, for me, just annoying in the batter’s box … not feeling the joy.

Hopefully he rebounds to his previous WASH level (I am assuming those stats had some more impact). Then the issue for Preller is does he hold … make a QO … and let him walk or trade him for a decent prospect(s) and redeploy the approx $30MM for 2024.  I don’t think they should re-sign him for his asking price.

Agree that Ohtani is probably not in the future …

So, the wild card becomes Machado … made himself a cornerstone of the Padres roster and expect the Padres make him the priority. Guessing he will shoot for (and get) at least a $350MM/10 year deal. If they get a deal before he opts out (this is an AAV game) he might not opt out (keeping the $150MM/5 years) BUT add a second deal to begin when the current deal ends for $200MM/5 years).

Does Machado want more? Does Machado prefer to be on the East Coast (closer to his home in MIA)? Not a slam dunk signing.

With big money into Bogaerts and Tatis … agree that potentially a better overall team can be made by deploying the cost over more high end players.

Machado has  10M house in Coronado. I don't think Miami as his home is that much of an issue.

I believe he also just built a big house in MIA … as it stands sort of a two city guy.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 8:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 31, 2023, 4:20 pm

Come on yall, Ohtani is a pipe dream, like Mr. P said, I really believe he is going to choose a major city, not to mention Cohen is going to dump a pile of cash on him. And think about him, even if we do sign him for $50M, that is more than 1/5 of the CBT for the next few years until it goes up.

Plus, Machado is the heart of the team, the team captain, we need to keep him. Soto, when we see the real Soto bat this season, and at his age, we will want to keep him.

I know Ohtani is "two" players, but he is also "two" players if/when he gets hurt. And he is only one bat.

Spread the money around many players, its much safer anyway, and more bats in the line up as well.

The thing with Othani is that unlike Senga who publicly said he wanted to go to a Big Market team.. Othani is more of a stay at Home chill dude who doesn't like to go out much.. so San Diego is the perfect environment for him...

In a perfect world we Win the 2023 WS.. we Sign Othani and trade Soto... Manny is kept..

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 8:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2023, 6:51 pm

Machado has an AAV of 30M, which is the among the lowest for the top 4 highly paid 3b in the league.  Devers, starting in 2024, will have an AAV of 29,100M so that's not a good comparison of what Machado wants. Rendon's contract has an AAV or 35M while Arenado has been getting paid 35M per year since 2020 and will continue to get paid that amount through 2024.  My thought is that is what Machado wants - to be paid equally as his peers (even though Rendon has not earned it!) so my guess is that he gets bumped up to 35M per year, maybe even 35.5 - 36M with a lower amount in his declining extended years to take down the AAV a bit to somewhere around what it is now.  That's how Arenado's contract is structured.

With Padres having approximately 54M AAV coming off the books just from Darvish, Snell, Hader and Pomeranz if Machado signs such an extension they could go all in for 2 very good SPs from among Nola, Severino, Giolito Montgomery or even Urias (despite his personal issues), oldies like Lynn, Maeda or Morton or even re-sign Snell or Darvish.   In fact, Snell might even take the qualifying offer the Padres will extend to him, Darvish and possibly Hader, although the later would really cut into our ability to compete for a top shelf SP.  If you move Soto and his 30M, you get even more flexibility.

Even before that, however, I still think Preller has something up his sleeve to strengthen the current rotation although it might not be until the trading deadline.

 

 

 

Isn't Arenado's AAV like $28 though?... I mean if Manny wants to be the highest paid 3B for the next 5 yrs ...write ot up as 10 yrs $310.. $36 1-5 (age 32- 36) $26 6-10 (age 37 to 41)..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 9:42 pm

Was just thinking of the way AJP got Paddack back in the day from Marlins (Fernando Rodney).. and how history could repeat itself with another such trade Pomz ($8.5) /Garcia ($3.5) or someone like Crismatt (no options) depending if AJP wants to clear $$ or perhaps a 40 man spot to add a Dahl or Teheran without DFAing anyone..

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 7:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 8:23 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 31, 2023, 6:51 pm

Machado has an AAV of 30M, which is the among the lowest for the top 4 highly paid 3b in the league.  Devers, starting in 2024, will have an AAV of 29,100M so that's not a good comparison of what Machado wants. Rendon's contract has an AAV or 35M while Arenado has been getting paid 35M per year since 2020 and will continue to get paid that amount through 2024.  My thought is that is what Machado wants - to be paid equally as his peers (even though Rendon has not earned it!) so my guess is that he gets bumped up to 35M per year, maybe even 35.5 - 36M with a lower amount in his declining extended years to take down the AAV a bit to somewhere around what it is now.  That's how Arenado's contract is structured.

With Padres having approximately 54M AAV coming off the books just from Darvish, Snell, Hader and Pomeranz if Machado signs such an extension they could go all in for 2 very good SPs from among Nola, Severino, Giolito Montgomery or even Urias (despite his personal issues), oldies like Lynn, Maeda or Morton or even re-sign Snell or Darvish.   In fact, Snell might even take the qualifying offer the Padres will extend to him, Darvish and possibly Hader, although the later would really cut into our ability to compete for a top shelf SP.  If you move Soto and his 30M, you get even more flexibility.

Even before that, however, I still think Preller has something up his sleeve to strengthen the current rotation although it might not be until the trading deadline.

 

 

 

Isn't Arenado's AAV like $28 though?... I mean if Manny wants to be the highest paid 3B for the next 5 yrs ...write ot up as 10 yrs $310.. $36 1-5 (age 32- 36) $26 6-10 (age 37 to 41)..

Keep in mind that the existing contracts for the comps were signed in the past … and before the recent “inflation” of contracts. $310 will not get it done … Machado does like money (that is why he is in SD not elsewhere). He will look at all recent contract comps not just 3B. If he got $30MM AAV in 2019 … and arguably improved his stock while contracts inflated … he is not settling for near status quo.

Actually he may look at Tatis’ contract and want to surpass that total contract value while referencing the last 7 years of Tatis’ deal at $36MM/yr. Pretty sure he will push his on-going PROVEN production, ability to play every day, and his team leadership vs an immature, injury prone, 14 year projection in Tatis. He will have a good argument.