Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:10 am

Need to add in for luxury tax purposes the $20MM for “benefits, etc” so a little more but  clearly phasing in those league minimum players is critical … the pitching will be the high risk past Musgrove, Othani, Gray with real question marks with #4-6 SP and the entire pen.

Still that roster should get them into the playoffs in 2024.

Could see the payroll start to pull back starting in 2025. Merrill should allow Kim to go FA. Soto not likely to be re-signed (Boras agent) and will push for the $50MM AAV ($20MM increase from his projected 2024 ARB). Padres could sign a quality replacement for a fraction of that amount.

Then start layering in Zavala for Grisham (2026) and Salas for Nola (2026-7) … need a surprise to cover Cronenworth (1B) in 2026 as he goes FA. Of course, a lot has to go right with these prospects. Pitching is always the wild card but with that starting 3 … a lot of flexibility with the need for a top of the rotation prospect actually emerging.

At some point … with the help of prospects producing at the ML level … think the payroll will actually fall below the increasing tax threshold for a a few years until the prospects start commanding bigger money in ARB.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 7:50 am

If we are "extremely" lucky Josh Mears learns how to take a BB and limit his K's and ends up at 1B at the major league level.

That  is asking a lot but you did say "surprise".

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 8:45 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 7:50 am

If we are "extremely" lucky Josh Mears learns how to take a BB and limit his K's and ends up at 1B at the major league level.

That  is asking a lot but you did say "surprise".

 

In my mind that is listed as a shock more than a surprise.

Luis ... Mortadella ... Doersching ... Montesino have to be looked at but Cronenworth is around for 3 more years ... so a fair amount of time to develop someone for 2026. Might even be Campsano if he hits to his prospect status while Salas unseats both Nola and Campusano from catching duties.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 9:01 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 5:10 am

Need to add in for luxury tax purposes the $20MM for “benefits, etc” so a little more but  clearly phasing in those league minimum players is critical … the pitching will be the high risk past Musgrove, Othani, Gray with real question marks with #4-6 SP and the entire pen.

Still that roster should get them into the playoffs in 2024.

Could see the payroll start to pull back starting in 2025. Merrill should allow Kim to go FA. Soto not likely to be re-signed (Boras agent) and will push for the $50MM AAV ($20MM increase from his projected 2024 ARB). Padres could sign a quality replacement for a fraction of that amount.

Then start layering in Zavala for Grisham (2026) and Salas for Nola (2026-7) … need a surprise to cover Cronenworth (1B) in 2026 as he goes FA. Of course, a lot has to go right with these prospects. Pitching is always the wild card but with that starting 3 … a lot of flexibility with the need for a top of the rotation prospect actually emerging.

At some point … with the help of prospects producing at the ML level … think the payroll will actually fall below the increasing tax threshold for a a few years until the prospects start commanding bigger money in ARB.

 

Well I picked up Nick Martinez at 2/32 (team option) so clearly he established himself as 150 IP 3.95ish Pablo Lopez type #4 (#3 insurance guy).. otherwise replace Nick with a FA guy with too end #4 (borderline #3) resume

So really only ?? Is #5 and #6.. of which at least 1 spot should be answered in 2023..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 9:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 8:45 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 7:50 am

If we are "extremely" lucky Josh Mears learns how to take a BB and limit his K's and ends up at 1B at the major league level.

That  is asking a lot but you did say "surprise".

 

In my mind that is listed as a shock more than a surprise.

Luis ... Mortadella ... Doersching ... Montesino have to be looked at but Cronenworth is around for 3 more years ... so a fair amount of time to develop someone for 2026. Might even be Campsano if he hits to his prospect status while Salas unseats both Nola and Campusano from catching duties.

Mears is actually a pretty good CF.. with speed and Power.. and a 45% K rate

I mean he could hit .185 with 30+ bombs and 20 SB while playing very good Defense AND if Grisham does 2022 remix in 2023 ..Mears is not a bad replacement (double the HRs same BA..more SB and solid at CF ..not GG but not bad).. or he could simply be a 4th OF with a ton of power and speed coming off the bench.. which will be his role when Zavala comes up either way ..

Then again all Mears needs to do is cut his K% to a still high BUT much better <40% even 39.9% rate with his power/speed would make him a mlb player .. his value may come as a trade chip in a quantity over quality 3 for 1 type move as I see it..

I am much more bullish on Howell. than I am on Mears .. to at least hold CF as we await Zavala ...if we were to move Grish

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2023, 9:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 8:45 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 7:50 am

If we are "extremely" lucky Josh Mears learns how to take a BB and limit his K's and ends up at 1B at the major league level.

That  is asking a lot but you did say "surprise".

 

In my mind that is listed as a shock more than a surprise.

Luis ... Mortadella ... Doersching ... Montesino have to be looked at but Cronenworth is around for 3 more years ... so a fair amount of time to develop someone for 2026. Might even be Campsano if he hits to his prospect status while Salas unseats both Nola and Campusano from catching duties.

I could see a world in which

C Salas/Campusano with Seagle/King Jr at AAA

1B Mortadella/Campusano

SS Merrill

CF Zavala

DH Doersching /Campusano

Being 6 spots 6/13 in the 2026 season all pre arb

If we have Manny/Tatis/Xander/Soto and need min types to fill roster

If we have the 5 (4 + Othani).. Doersching vs Mortadella vs others at 1B.. (with loser likely moved..if development = rise into the top 15ish or higher ranks in the prospect team ranks)

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 2:05 pm

I admit that we can't assume anything anymore when it comes to Seidler and Preller but I just see no way we could keep Soto AND sign Ohtani.

Unless "maybe" if we lose Manny...but all 5?

I just don't think that's possible and to be honest,while it would be AMAZING,I'm not sure it's wise anyway.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2023, 2:24 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 2:05 pm

I admit that we can't assume anything anymore when it comes to Seidler and Preller but I just see no way we could keep Soto AND sign Ohtani.

Unless "maybe" if we lose Manny...but all 5?

I just don't think that's possible and to be honest,while it would be AMAZING,I'm not sure it's wise anyway.

 

 

Agree.

With Tatis and Bogaerts here long term on no trade deals ... and at some point pay for multiple SP .... keeping Machado - Soto - Ohtani  ... the latter two at maybe $50MM each ... just does not pencil out.

Personally don't think they can sign Ohtani away from the likes of the LAD/NYM but if they could ... which ONE of the three would you go all in for? Which one would you first pass on in favor of the others?

Clearly next winter Preller needs to make the call with Machado opting out and Ohtani a FA. Could go for both while trading Soto a year before he hits FA to get some prospects and clear $30MM for the signings.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2023, 3:13 pm

I hope if AJ gets the sense he’s not going to be able to sign Soto he does trade him to at least get a couple good prospects back.
If this happens by all means go all in for Ohtani….for all the reasons we know.

His marketability as well as abilities on the field at 2 diff positions can not be undervalued.

If we let Yu go and trade Soto I don’t see why we couldn’t offer him what others do.

I think where Ohtani signs will be more about the city and the Org rather than the money because he should have multiple offers at the same level and all from teams that could win the WS.