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2023 offseason
#3341 · January 18, 2023, 5:10 pm
I'm sure everyone has noticed that it is eerily quiet concerning what is happening with Profar. Pham signs, Duvall signs but not a peep about Profar and Profar arguably has a better overall game than both. If you look at what Kim and Profar are projected to do offensively in 2023 it is similar, with Kim stealing more bases while Profar slightly better OBP/SA. The problem is that Profar is not going to hit that many home runs or steal that many bases to be an impact OF and that won't offset his below average defense in the OF over the season for most teams. On the other hand, if Profar only has to fill the offensive side of a loss of Kim and move around the diamond to play multiple positions to be of value to the Padres his average or less defense will be less of a factor because it will be exposed less - particularly if most of the time is at 1b.
For this reason, until something else happens, I think Preller has Profar "on ice" for an incentive laden contract until he makes that trade for a solid #3 starter that still has a couple of years of control. So predicting Cabrera or Luzardo coming over to San Diego and Kim and possibly a RP like Hill or Garcia moving to Miami. This allows Croney to go back to 2b and us to have a more reliable hitter to back up Soto, Grisham and Tatis (besides spelling Carpenter at 1b) and in a pinch can play 2b. This may open up a backup INF spot for Schrock, Rosario or Batten or the possible inclusion of Berti/Wendle in the above trade but we also have Croney or Tatis who can go back to SS if necessary. We'll likely be over the next AAV level for a period of time, however, that might not be the case by the end of the 2023 season when that amount is calculated. This make too much sense to me so probably Profar signs tomorrow with the Dodgers!
#3342 · January 18, 2023, 5:29 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2023, 5:10 pmI'm sure everyone has noticed that it is eerily quiet concerning what is happening with Profar. Pham signs, Duvall signs but not a peep about Profar and Profar arguably has a better overall game than both. If you look at what Kim and Profar are projected to do offensively in 2023 it is similar, with Kim stealing more bases while Profar slightly better OBP/SA. The problem is that Profar is not going to hit that many home runs or steal that many bases to be an impact OF and that won't offset his below average defense in the OF over the season for most teams. On the other hand, if Profar only has to fill the offensive side of a loss of Kim and move around the diamond to play multiple positions to be of value to the Padres his average or less defense will be less of a factor because it will be exposed less - particularly if most of the time is at 1b.
For this reason, until something else happens, I think Preller has Profar "on ice" for an incentive laden contract until he makes that trade for a solid #3 starter that still has a couple of years of control. So predicting Cabrera or Luzardo coming over to San Diego and Kim and possibly a RP like Hill or Garcia moving to Miami. This allows Croney to go back to 2b and us to have a more reliable hitter to back up Soto, Grisham and Tatis (besides spelling Carpenter at 1b) and in a pinch can play 2b. This may open up a backup INF spot for Schrock, Rosario or Batten or the possible inclusion of Berti/Wendle in the above trade but we also have Croney or Tatis who can go back to SS if necessary. We'll likely be over the next AAV level for a period of time, however, that might not be the case by the end of the 2023 season when that amount is calculated. This make too much sense to me so probably Profar signs tomorrow with the Dodgers!
I think that Preller is probably looking at 3 team trades at this point IF he is looking at moving Kim at all. Miami is looking for a player that primarily provides offense while Kim is a defensive specialist with average offense. Plenty of teams should love to trade a poor defense, good offense 2B or COF for a SS like Kim. If anyone can make it work, it's Preller.
#3343 · January 18, 2023, 5:57 pm
A Kim for Houck (controlled thru 2027) + proposed trade could also give AJP some leverage with Miami.. so even though Miami has some desirable pieces .. at SP...so do other teams. AJP is in a position to sell extremely high on Kim.. no one else has a 5 WAR SS or even a 3 WAR SS available via trade at this moment .. nor a GG CF..
I like the take on Profar.. I also like other options if Crone is sliding to 2B .. Yuli could be an option as 1B. Carp can spell Crone at 2B on occasion.. and Yuli is just one yr removed from an elite offensive season and was one of the best post season bats this past season..
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#3344 · January 18, 2023, 6:23 pm
⚾️🔜 pic.twitter.com/y3eCRho9Pm
— David Dahl (@ddahl21) January 18, 2023
This dude could answer a lot of questions in 2023 . 1/2 the battle is doing the offseason work to get a jump on ST...Dahl doing that
#3345 · January 18, 2023, 6:28 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 18, 2023, 6:23 pmhttps://twitter.com/ddahl21/status/1615848428092944391?t=eJtJXt8FjPQWPw78NgMAHg&s=19
This dude could answer a lot of questions in 2023 . 1/2 the battle is doing the offseason work to get a jump on ST...Dahl doing that
I have news for you....everybody is doing that
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Jeremy Hill
#3346 · January 18, 2023, 6:32 pm
Don’t under estimate the value of Kim beyond his defense … his offense FOR A SS may not be among the elite but after the few elite the drop off is significant and Kim ranks quite high in that next level. Need a SS … limited market … Kim is the top of the pack.
I love the idea of Kim at 2B with the end to the shift … his SS range will be great for the pitchers. However, have to balance the weakness past the top 3 SP (and what that may mean to the season) against adding a legit mid-rotation SP and backfilling Kim. Pluses and minuses … depends on the evaluation of both players.
Still think MIA is the only real trade partner if they want a legit mid-rotation SP … if that came down, likely multiple players are in the deal both ways.
#3347 · January 18, 2023, 6:39 pm
Serious question
You trade Kim for a guy because that's what you all are talking about and Bogaerts gets hurt in ST or early season...who is going to play SS ?
Not one player mentioned is worth the value that Kim brings to the Padres
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#3348 · January 18, 2023, 6:43 pm
Quote from 3fingersplit on January 18, 2023, 6:39 pmSerious question
You trade Kim for a guy because that's what you all are talking about and Bogaerts gets hurt in ST or early season...who is going to play SS ?
Not one player mentioned is worth the value that Kim brings to the Padres
Tatis
If u mean 1st 20 games... Rosario won't hurt us playing SS and batting 9th.. he likely plays as well as CJ Abrams did in April/May last yr
237 .281 .331 .612 not a big bar to clear
If we were able to carry CJ for 33 starts in 2022.. with only Manny.... I think we would be ok with Manny + Soto . (Assuming Xander and Tatis both miss 1st 20 in your injury scenario)
BTW I am not a cheerleader for trading Kim unless is for a longer controlled pre-arb or arb 1 low cost #3 or better upside SP.. Lets be 💯 here there is no way SDP is going to be able to afford Grish or Kim cone 2024-25 Offseason as Soto /Kim and Soto all hit FA.. we either keep Kim and Grish and lose Soto.. or keep Soto and lose the 2... lucky for us by 2025 opening day Merrill should be ready and we will have some OF options including Zavala close to ready or ready by then.. if progression projection goes smoothly...
Having a controllable SP even a #3 /#4 established and reliable by 2025 making $5mil or less (return for Kim or Grish) lets us keep Soto.. not having one makes it very difficult as spending $80 mil between 1 2 3 and 4 doesn't allowed to keep the Fearsome 4 some together.. less so if Othani is signed .. as it stands now (and assuming Nick establishes himself as a SP and Padres pick up his option) 2025 SP looks like this
1. JOE $20
2. Othani $25 (only counting 1/2 of his $50 as P)
3. Cabrera (Kim or Grish trade.. arb 2 $4 mil)
4. Nick Martinez $16
5 and 6 .. Rookie/Soph .. minimum pre arb Mazur/Wolf/Groome/ etc..
We got all 6 SP for around $65mil..
Without Othani but with other probably $20 (so $60)
With the 5 we would be at around $205.. before BP and 4 other position players and 4 bench
Merrill/Zavala/Azocar/Campy/Doershing or Motarella..or alike gives us 5 players at minimum... leaving 3 spots open (think Carp like/Cruz like Vets and a backup C although Seagle or other internal options could be at least the backup assuming Campy elevates his game to #1 C considerstion.. Don't see Salas rising that fast (age 18 almost 19) but who knows with how advanced he is.. 2027 is my eta for him making hin 20 in April (21 in June) when he debuts..
BP would be Suarez $10.. and would have around $25 mil or so for the other 6 arms + the controlled guys at AAA by 2025.. to stay under tier 1 which is projected at $244mil for 2025...
Not saying this is the Blue print .. and not saying Siedler won't spend beyond tier 1 ... but I am trying to basically keep it at a reasonable level here..
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#3349 · January 18, 2023, 7:50 pm
Quote from 3fingersplit on January 18, 2023, 6:39 pmSerious question
You trade Kim for a guy because that's what you all are talking about and Bogaerts gets hurt in ST or early season...who is going to play SS ?
Not one player mentioned is worth the value that Kim brings to the Padres
Every player has a price. That being said, Kim is the starting 2B and far and away best defensive SS. He has a lot of value. I don't see AJ trading him for a questionable #5 starter. A quality #3 starter OTOH...
#3350 · January 18, 2023, 8:22 pm
Padres' Pedro Avila has this unicorn change-up that kindaaa has the movement of a gyro slider (I guess?) but definitely is not one.
It has a consistent 1:15ish tilt with low spin.
I would absolutely love to know the grip on this pitch. pic.twitter.com/B6IcMDYkxr
— Rylan Domingues (@RylanDomingues) January 19, 2023
Avila misses more bats than Groome and Wethers, doesn't have the pedigree or high prospect status that both Groome and Weathers have had.. But the guy can pitch and if El Paso playoff run and postseason is any indication (Avila pitched the team into the playoffs clinching ) he has some Dog in him... He is definetely the least talked about potential 5th/6th SP for us.. But he had the best yr at EP (all season) of any of the SP there.. and put himself right into the convo because of it...
7 - 2 4.58 ERA at AAA EP is pretty solid
I believe Soto and Avila played together in Nats rookie league or at least crossed paths with the Nats... (Avila was part of the Derek Norris trade)