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2023 offseason
#3321 · January 18, 2023, 8:47 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2023, 7:45 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on January 18, 2023, 7:30 amMy take on Morejon "stretching out" at SA this season.. is that we need to make up innings in SD .. Why not just stretch him out in the MLB.. clearly "stuff and upside" alone puts him at #4 SP..
I say start him and have an 80-100 inning limit on him.. wether that's 15 starts or 25 starts we will navigate as the season goes and as Morejon shows efficiency past more than 2-3 innings or 4-5 per start.. could piggy back someone like Crismatt or the like on his starts.. but get him in the rotation and on that SP schedule.. I think it was Conniff that said Morejon thrives when he has a set routine and knows when he is due to pitch in advance (aka SP)... We need to make up 300+ IP from 4th through 6th (+ whatever IP Nick and others had as SP in 2022 besides Gore/Clev and Sean).. why not let Morejon stretch at the MLB level for 80 of those...?
Is 80 innings out of the pen really stretching him out to be a SP in 2024? At least a SP than can go at least 150 innings? With only 3 years control using 2023 in the pen and 2024 a limited SP may not really do that much for the future.
Now could argue (if writing him off as a future SP) his biggest value is a LHRP (multi-inning) considering Pomeranz is a real injury risk for 2023 and both he and Hader are FA after the season. (Of course Morejon is also a major injury risk given his history).
Keeping Morejon will force a bump of someone … could go a lot of ways.
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Did hear an interview with Glaser … not really all that high on the future of either Morejon or Groome … thinks maybe at best a #5/6 SP. With Morejon, combo of injuries (seems to happen a lot) and never having been able to go deep into games even with starting. Not sure his issue with Groome.
Conniff disagrees he sees both as potential #3's or better .. with a floor of 4th and 5th...
Personally I see both as great 4th or 5th guys .. as well as others coming up Lizarraga/Wolf etc.. only high upside 1 2 or 3 guys atm are Lesko/Snelling/Mazur and maybe Henry Williams ... DR Intl signing Leija (from last yr) needs to show same dominance in Rookie ball before I elevate him to that "elite" 1 2 3 SP status..
I think of Groome as a Zach Davies type.. BUT if his workouts with Joe this offseason net a 20lbs loss and increased stamina, flexibility and strength and his Velo goes +2 ish then his excellent secondary pitches will have him in the #3 or better type .. Morejon has the stuff to be elite.. but I don't think he will ever be a big inning eater to get there.. he will be a #4 120 IP guy with something like 3.75 ERA.. if everything lines up...
* LOL if Wethers had Groomes secondary pitches he would be elite and if Groome had Wethers Velo he would too LOL.. Groome once had it can he get it back after staying healthy for a season+?
#3322 · January 18, 2023, 8:54 am
I do agree that Morejon is a huge risk/reward guy.. Why I proposed a Lauer for Morejon type swap with Brewers or Houser for Morejon... in essence trading for Morejon's Floor without the risks... and letting Brewers have the bigger upside play
#3323 · January 18, 2023, 8:59 am
What it all boils down to is three, reliable, high level SPs and then a bunch of hopes and wishes after that.
Martinez, Lugo, Morejon, Groome, Weathers, Honeywell, Font, and the rest of the gang all have issues, question marks, and other peripherals that make them unreliable for a WS contending team.
I would hate for SD to lose ground in the division race, and or WC position because for the 1st 3 months of the season, SP 4 down dont perform. And God forbid we have an injury to one of the main 3, SD could really be screwed.
I am sure that against 70% of MLB teams, we can simply beat the other team into submission with the offense that we are going to run out there everyday. However, when we play that other 30%, the NYM, PHI, ATL, LAD, STL and maybe MIL types, offense will be at a premium in those series, and I still have real concern with our SP after Darvish, Snell, Musgrove. And even Snell makes me nervous, he is one sneeze and a strong wind from tweaking a fallopian tube and being on the IL for 5 weeks.
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Jeremy Hill
#3324 · January 18, 2023, 9:02 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 18, 2023, 8:54 amI do agree that Morejon is a huge risk/reward guy.. Why I proposed a Lauer for Morejon type swap with Brewers or Houser for Morejon... in essence trading for Morejon's Floor without the risks... and letting Brewers have the bigger upside play
While Houser from a stamina point, can give SD more innings this season than Morejon. Not sure that his actual stuff is any better. Housers WHIP is really high, and only 69 Ks in 102 IPs.
So not sure I would do a Houser for Morejon trade.
#3325 · January 18, 2023, 9:04 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2023, 7:32 amWould not have raised an eyebrow if that contract was given a month ago … but NOW? Can’t be many teams bidding on his services at this point … would think BOST could have squeezed the price down more. Not as though (even if he is good) he will be a game changers for the last place Red Sox.
Well, Pham just got $6M +2M in incentives from NYM. That makes the Duvall signing look a lot better now, IMO.
#3326 · January 18, 2023, 9:39 am
With Morejon have to juggle near term value to the club with the fact that he only has three years control remaining. Agree his "stuff" has (always has had) the potential for an upper rotation arm but potential has to be balance with the reality that he has a long history of injury and frankly little success as a SP. Not a lot of time to get him to that upper rotation SP ...if they can with his history.
Stretching him out to a SP at the ML level might just be an academic exercise .... don't think he has ever pitcher more that 65 innings in a season at the ML/MiL level since he began in 2017. Last season only about 47 innings, ML/MiL. So even getting him to 80 innings as a 6th SP/long RP may be a very optimistic gamble for a contender in 2023. I would not RELY on him succeeding ... and his overall results in ML have not been exciting so far.
ST issue but Padres should want the 13 man roster to be filled with the arms they see as the most productive (not necessarily the best potential) to start and run through the season ... they are contenders and not in 2023 a proving ground for potential.
If we have as LHRP Hader, Pomeranz, Hill in and Groome, Lopez, Castillo, Cosgrove, Kerr pushing for a slot ... is gambling on Morejon the better choice as a LHP. Is he a better choice than the RPRP options?
Beginning to think Groome if at all competent in ST can unseat Morejon given that Groome did pitch 144 innings (pretty well) in AA/AAA last season. LHP who can start / pitch innings for that #5/6/long relief role.
#3327 · January 18, 2023, 9:57 am
A bit more of a long shot to unseat Morejon for the #5-6-long relief role is Julio Teheran but would not rule him out. He is still only about 30 and was a workhorse in his Atlanta days with 175-200 innings through 2019. 2020-22 with COVID and some other injury issues basically a non-factor but in 2022 (INDY/MEX) did log 75 innings albeit vs inferior completion. Still enough for the Padres to sign to a $6MM deal if he makes the club ... so really must see the upside.
Excluding Teheran ... could see a lot of optioned / called up arms for that role to control the workloads (plus strategic IL stints). If they needed to add Teheran (out of options) ... probably indicates they are concerned about the productivity of the others (including Lugo / Martinez who may return to the pen).
Also, the health of Pomeranz may be a factor ... if IL, Morejon to the pen in Pomeranz' role may be a priority. Also if healthy Pomeranz' is dealt for payroll relief would set the same scenario in motion.
#3328 · January 18, 2023, 10:17 am
With all the LHP options that SD has, while Morejon may have the best stuff, SD and Morejon are best served to have him start everyday in SA. He gets to keep his routine, SD gets an extra year of control, and he gets to build his arm up without the pressure of having to perform at a top level for a WS contending team.
#3329 · January 18, 2023, 10:19 am
Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2023, 9:04 amQuote from fenn68 on January 18, 2023, 7:32 amWould not have raised an eyebrow if that contract was given a month ago … but NOW? Can’t be many teams bidding on his services at this point … would think BOST could have squeezed the price down more. Not as though (even if he is good) he will be a game changers for the last place Red Sox.
Well, Pham just got $6M +2M in incentives from NYM. That makes the Duvall signing look a lot better now, IMO.
Apparently with the signs of Duvall (Bost) and Pham (NYM) ... two of Profar's speculated landing spot have dried up and considering the base deals were at $7MM and $6MM plus incentives ... probably think Profar (Boras) still have a higher price point for Profar.
Texas is still in the mix apparently. Keep in mind that Profar turned down a $7.5MM option and got a $1MM buyout ... so net exposed at only $6.5MM ... right in the zone of Duvall and Pham. Would seem that he will come out at worst even on a one year deal with incentives.
Now the pure speculation ... although the Padres have no real need for him with an OF of Soto/Grisham/Tatis/Engel/Azocar and the DH of Carpenter/Cruz ... if Preller makes some trades (thinking SP) using a starter (Kim or Grisham) causing a position shuffle along with a deal to move Pomeranz' salary ... we might just see Profar on the menu. Clearly liked by Preller and the team.
#3330 · January 18, 2023, 10:31 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2023, 10:19 amNow the pure speculation ... although the Padres have no real need for him with an OF of Soto/Grisham/Tatis/Engel/Azocar and the DH of Carpenter/Cruz ... if Preller makes some trades (thinking SP) using a starter (Kim or Grisham) causing a position shuffle along with a deal to move Pomeranz' salary ... we might just see Profar on the menu. Clearly liked by Preller and the team.
So what do you think the defense alignment would like with a Grisham trade and back fill of Profar. Same as last season with Profar in LF, Soto in RF, and Tatis replaces Grisham in CF.
Or do you go Soto in LF, Engel/Azocar in CF, and Tatis in RF with Profar being a late inning defensive replacement for Soto and giving Soto the occasional day of from fielding?
Wish Profar could handle CF.