Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2022, 9:49 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on October 23, 2022, 9:43 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2022, 9:21 pm

The Padres traded basically their entire minor league system to pick up big bats at the trade deadline this year. I don't see them handing out more huge contracts for huge bats this off-season. Contreras is going to want a $100 million plus contract. I don't see him getting one here. I'm not sure the Padres will even be willing to afford Senga. He is truly all that I am hoping for this off-season but I don't think it will happen. I actually think the Padres will sign a few garbage starters and no major bats.

Our team is up against the cap, and let's not forget they are still the Padres. I think the biggest thing the Padres need for next year, besides another plus starter, is for Soto to rediscover his stroke. His eye is still as good as ever but his swing is looking long, stiff and slow. We traded for a star who hits .287/.424/.526/.950 lifetime, not just some guy who hits .235/.388/.390/.778. If we had that guy we would likely be in the NL Championship. If we had him and Tatis hitting like they usually do we would have had a great chance at winning the World Series this year. We don't need more bats, we need the huge bats that we already have to stay healthy, actually show up to play instead of getting suspended and hit like the stars they are.

I think our most important signing this off-season will be our new pitching coach. The Padres should spend $20 million per year if they have to to get someone who can actually get these players to perform. Not another guy nobody has ever heard of just out of college, get the best! Whoever it is we need to outbid everybody else to get the best guy, someone who can get the best out of the players we have.

I hope you meant hitting coach because I see nothing wrong with Niebla.

Of course! My bad. I changed it. I am a fan of Niebla.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 24, 2022, 6:49 am

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2022, 9:21 pm

The Padres traded basically their entire minor league system to pick up big bats at the trade deadline this year. I don't see them handing out more huge contracts for huge bats this off-season. Contreras is going to want a $100 million plus contract. I don't see him getting one here. I'm not sure the Padres will even be willing to afford Senga. He is truly all that I am hoping for this off-season but I don't think it will happen. I actually think the Padres will sign a few garbage starters and no major bats.

Our team is up against the cap, and let's not forget they are still the Padres. I think the biggest thing the Padres need for next year, besides another plus starter, is for Soto to rediscover his stroke. His eye is still as good as ever but his swing is looking long, stiff and slow. We traded for a star who hits .287/.424/.526/.950 lifetime, not just some guy who hits .235/.388/.390/.778. If we had that guy we would likely be in the World Series. If we had him and Tatis hitting like they usually do we would have had a great chance at winning the World Series this year. We don't need more bats, we need the huge bats that we already have to stay healthy, actually show up to play instead of getting suspended and hit like the stars they are.

I think our most important signing this off-season will be our new hitting coach. The Padres should spend $20 million per year if they have to to get someone who can actually get these players to perform. Not another guy nobody has ever heard of just out of college, get the best! Whoever it is we need to outbid everybody else to get the best guy, someone who can get the best out of the players we have.

So in a season when Kim improves his batting by +60..Profar/Manny have one of their best hitting seasons of their career and we led ALL NLCS teams in post season batting .. you want to get rid of the batting coach?? Perhaps we should keep the continuity going..lets not forget even as miserable as Grish was at the plate he still had a career high 18 HRs

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2022, 6:59 am

All things in perspective with the league performances in 2022.

Offense delivered 13th place in MLB in both runs scored and wRC+ boosted by an 8th place finish in OBP. The drag was SLG where they ended up 22nd. Don’t really know how much of that lower SLG is a product of PETCO for half the games. However, Padres may not have to do much to elevate that in 2023 with the return of Tatis and a full season of Soto. Also, most of us get frustrated with the perceived high K% when we watch Grisham, Myers, et al striking out more than we like. Another however, the Padres had the 9th LOWEST K% in MLB … no so bad.

Starting Pitching was thought to be very good but ended up 13th in WAR and xFIP … probably lower due to Clevinger and Manaea. Relief Pitching was thought to be the strong suit and it was 6th in WAR but only 12th xFIP. So pitching has room for improvement. A full season of Hader should help the pen but nothing to help the starting pitching.

For me makes the case for focusing on pitching (primarily SP) since can’t rely on any internal options for #4 or #5 being better than Clevinger / Manaea while the offense gets an internal boost for Tatis and a full season of Soto.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 24, 2022, 8:19 am

Spotrac has us at $220mil including Wil and Opt ins and proj Arb

So that's $13 mil to Tier 1.. and $33mil or so to tier 2.. Minus Wil ($19mil)/- say Alfaro arb /- 20 games 15% or so of Tatis $$...etc.. assuming everyone stays we should have $35 to $55mil to cover 1B/DH/SP x 2

If Padres believe in their BP arms at AA/AAA to be Wilson like or better their rookie yr..and Think a combo of or one of Groome/Wethers/Waldron/Avila/Knher can be at least Manea 22 like..then a stud SP Senga(would probably be cheapest cause unknown)/Rodon/Bassitt/come to mind..

As far as 1B/DH.. if Pads believe in Dixon at one position at say .740-.750 OPS or better (not the player he was earlier in his career after JPN and AAA this yr) then only ONE Bat and one SP (Quality vs Quantity) would be the game plan...

? Of other roster players.. IF Tatis is CFer what do we do with Trent? Profar? Azocar? I can see ONE of Profar or Grish being dealt.. Azocar is a fine 4th OF/PR/Def replacement for all 3 spots.. Got to believe Grish's value is as high as it will be (WAR > Bellinger and over 2) GG finalist and likely winner and absolute 🔥  in WC and NLDS ..even NLCS as cold as ice but hit a couple of balls that could have changed game 1 and game 4..if not for defensive gem and a millimeter under the other (to the fence).. on the other hand wouldn't we want to keep that?? And move Profar and his 3+ WAR and what the 2nd best fielding LF.. I mean, If Tatis is in CF ..Grish becomes odd man out.. If Tatis is in LF then Profar is odd man out.. Both Profar and Grish are MLB caliber starters and wasting one in the Bench when we have a DH/1B hole is not good baseball roster construction...

The other thought with shift gone.. Tatis at 2B and Crone at 1B would be very rangy on the right side and thus we would have every position covered ..with only DH ??

Also consider the batters mostly impacted by the end if the shift are mostly all LHB ..so another lefty bat (bench or DH) may be an educated add

Lots of ?? Lots of decisions.. But we are here for what should be a Fun offseason

Quote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2022, 9:02 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 24, 2022, 8:19 am

The other thought with shift gone.. Tatis at 2B and Crone at 1B would be very rangy on the right side and thus we would have every position covered ..with only DH ??

IF Tatis is going to be in the INF, he will not be 2B. In that scenario Kim would slide to 2B, and Tatis would be at SS.

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2022, 9:10 am

Not in agreement with the SPOTRAC numbers. I have the Padres (for CBT purposes) just under Tier 1. That is just the under control players for 2023 (Myers option NOT selected)... with the three opt in ... assumed arb decisions ... Hosmer's dead money ... and the seven TBD league minimums to fill out the 26 man roster ... and the approximate $20MM to cover benefits, minor leaguers on 40 man, etc.

Also keep in mind that the CBT calculation is based on AAV not current salary. So what they save on Myers is only $13.833 MM less buyout of $1MM ... not the $20MM less buyout. That logic follows every player ... for CBT purposes ... Snell, Pomeranz, and some others lower AAV vs their 2023 salary but Tatis' AAV is higher.

At this stage have to function under the assumption that any major additional spending is Tier 1 spending.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2022, 9:19 am

So trying not to overreact to the last season versus PHI, I have been trying to stay calm about the last two games. Lets face it, there are 26 other teams that would be happy to be in our spot. And we were close, PHI is really hot right now! For offseason moves, the most important question has been mentioned quite a few times, how much salary is Seidler willing to pay for the final steps to a championship??

I will look at our position players and pitching seperately.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2022, 9:20 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 24, 2022, 9:02 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 24, 2022, 8:19 am

The other thought with shift gone.. Tatis at 2B and Crone at 1B would be very rangy on the right side and thus we would have every position covered ..with only DH ??

IF Tatis is going to be in the INF, he will not be 2B. In that scenario Kim would slide to 2B, and Tatis would be at SS.

Agree Tatis would take SS under that INF assumption but Cronenworth was one of the top defensive 2B in 2022 (NL gold glove candidate) so would you put Kim at 2B and Cronenworth to 1B would be great defensively but does his bat a 1B role? Or do you trade Kim or Cronenworth? Then what do you do when Tatis goes on the 60 day IL? Who do you put in LF if still going with Grisham in CF?

Putting Tatis at SS would create a disruptive domino effect across the defense ... a defensive that got them to the playoffs. Not seeing the upside for the team.

Keep in mind that Cronenworth has the range at 2B ... range and arm that allow the Padres to consider him the back-up SS.

Quote from fenn68 on October 24, 2022, 9:30 am

I guess what is "easiest" to add to fill out the roster ... maybe LF/1B.

If that is the "easiest" maybe they should go with Tatis in CF (he has the athletic skills and is going to play somewhere) ... Grisham (plus defense but more than unacceptable offense) goes to the bench as a defensive option ... Padres if they retain Profar who they like in LF they really focus on someone to handle 1B.

I not of the opinion that Grisham burst of hitting in the early playoffs reflects a turnaround for his miserable offensive season ... some confirmed by his miserable NLCS. Love defense but his is not enough to keep him a starter with that offense.