Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 23, 2022, 9:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2022, 6:09 am

Assuming the Padres retain the three opt out candidates … either re-signed or they don’t opt out (unlikely) … Padres will be around the $233MM luxury tax threshold already and will remain one of the top payrolls in MLB. Yet, clearly they will still have needs with no legit system prospects ready for the ML on a contender.

Keep in mind if the three do opt out and leave … they will need to be replaced likely at cost at a similar level for similar production.

So, how much realistically over the threshold do we think the Padres will go? $20MM? That will not go far if looking a premium players for SP and a bat. Do the Padres get boxed into dealing Merrill for immediate help?

Will be an interesting off-season.

Merrill only moves for Othani.. BUT Othani fixes 2 spots.. SP and DH

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 23, 2022, 10:00 am

I can see a Pomz + Garcia + Rosario + Campy package for something... Maybe to Tigers.. for their lefty

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2022, 10:31 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 23, 2022, 10:00 am

I can see a Pomz + Garcia + Rosario + Campy package for something... Maybe to Tigers.. for their lefty

Going to have a real hard time trading Pomeranz with his $10MM / 1 year remaining considering he never returned from injury in 2022.

If the Padres wanted to move him during the winter probably would have to add Campusano to Pomeranz for a return of a couple of A ball prospects … would clear some salary space for a FA signing, so that is why that is possible.

More likely they will have to plan with Pomeranz a Padres then IF he is impressive in ST swing a deal (without a prospect attached) just to clear salary. Also as a hedge, need to be sure they have a replacement if he never recovers from his injury (or is just ineffective). As it stand, Pomeranz is dead money until he proves in ST he can play effectively again.

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They can easily move Garcia even at age 38 … just not for more than a very good prospect. Only one year control but at a bargain $3.8MM contract a contender would want him but not give a good ML asset.

Padres get more 2023 value keeping him than trading him … not sure who would step in to replace him at his level of productivity.

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2022, 11:02 am

Looking at the returning roster (assuming they retain Profar):

2) Nola/Alfaro; 3) Profar; 4) Cronenworth; 5) Machado; 6) Kim; 7) Tatis; 8) Grisham; 9) Soto. No bad IF everyone stays healthy but they will not, and they will need rest leading us to the remaining four active roster slot for covering DH/bench.

Consider four out of the following six on the current roster:

a. Dixon (30) … 536 AB … 676 OPS

b. Azocar (26) … 216 AB … 630 OPS

c. Campusano (24) … 85 AB … 510 OPS

d. Batten (27) … 19 AB … 385 OPS

e. Rosario (23) … 5 AB … 533 OPS

f. Sullivan (39) … no ML experience

There is no way any combination of those six can effectively support a contender over a 162 game schedule … one always in the line-up to accommodate the 9th hitter and have to expect injures  requiring another moving to the starting line-up.

If the Padres put a priority on a SP (maybe two) that will cost a lot for quality, could they take a different strategy on another bat. Not pay $8MMish for a Myers / Drury type then sort through what they have for the rest of the bench but take that same spending and gamble on adding 2 or 3 proven ML role players? (Note that I have already ruled out a big money signing for a hitter given the pitching needs).

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 23, 2022, 1:47 pm

Guess it all depends on what our final payroll limit is.

Can we re-sign 2 of Bell/Drury/Myers AND a couple starters?

Or do we have to use that $ for pitching only?

Will be an interesting off season for sure.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2022, 5:25 pm

Money is the big issue / unknown ... then add who is available and wants to sign with SD over other bidders ... if they are good ... there will be other bidders.

One proven legit ML starter (better than Clevinger or Manaea) will at a minimum be in the mid-teens with the top liners around $20MM (see Musgrove). Add on "better" SP and maybe gamble a bit on #5 but in a proven ML SP with some "issues" still a $5MM shot ... so maybe $15-25MM on SP?

Bell should be between $10MM (his current salary) and $16MM. Drury maybe around $5-8MM ... same with Myers ... maybe less. So maybe another $10-20MM for two of them.

Plus a very good chance Profar - Suarez - Martinez will opt out given the seasons they had putting the Padres in the position to sweeten the pot to get them to return or pay up to get equal replacement (if they can find one). Collectively maybe another $5MM over their opt in salaries?

Wide range but can easily see the need for an additional $30-50MM in payroll to fill all the holes in the roster with quality ML players ... basically that become the amount over the CBT threshold. Still paying Hosmer and getting hit with the full year of a arbitration elevated salary for Soto and Hader offsets all the savings for departing FA.

Given the success in 2022 ... and the core still around for another run ... expect Siedler to spend more (just how much?).

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 23, 2022, 5:41 pm

With a lot of needs ... they may have to make a call in allocation funds based on

1. winning enough games in the 162 game season to get into the playoffs ... that would suggest having a strong #4 and #5 plus depth on the bench to cover injuries (especially SP) maybe be more important than a big bat when Machado - Tatis - Soto are already here.
2. winning in the playoffs may be different construct that suggests the strongest SP 1-3 and another big bat since the bench and the #5 SP are not used all the much.

Want both but not easy to build such a roster without unlimited funds (and some luck). So,

1. Can't win if not in
2. Strong pitching beats good hitting.

So, I would go for the best they can get in SP #4-5 ... rely on Machado - Tatis - Soto et al to provide enough offense to rack up sufficient wins to get into the playoffs and, if necessary, use the trade deadline to incorporate a rental bat or two (like a Drury).

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Add that if they land two legit quality SP ... it opens up some trade possibility of low cost prospect pitchers (always desired) like Morejon, Knehr, Groome, et. al. to fill those offensive holes. Doesn't work the other way since the Padres have no real trade chips there except maybe Campusano in the near term.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 23, 2022, 7:20 pm

I look at Contretas DH/C as the best fit still.. and here is why..He has a history of destroying balls @ Petco.. He would be our best C and a Huge upgrade..and he would be a more consistent proven track record dude at DH...

Contreras slots behind Tatis CF/Soto RF/Manny 3B/Contreras C vs lefties and 5th (Crone #4 vs Righties).. He C 50/50 with Nola

Campusano can be moved/Ditto Alfaro for something

DIXON becomes our 1B ..bats 6th..Profar 7th..Kim 8.. Nola 9th..

The offensive upgrades with FTJ + Contreras > than our current batch

We have Grish/Azocar/Rosario/and ,??? I think 5/75 gets us Contreras..with the DH wear and tear should be eased.. Campy can be kept as a 3rd C/2nd DH.. AB for Grish would be diminished quite a bit.. (unless Profar leaves..then Grish CF and Tatis LF)

For P

Senga (JPN) is my #1 priority.. if we can spend $30 mil and get Senga and Contreras while Martinez and Suarez opt in.. We are golden

Quote from JasonE135 on October 23, 2022, 9:21 pm

The Padres traded basically their entire minor league system to pick up big bats at the trade deadline this year. I don't see them handing out more huge contracts for huge bats this off-season. Contreras is going to want a $100 million plus contract. I don't see him getting one here. I'm not sure the Padres will even be willing to afford Senga. He is truly all that I am hoping for this off-season but I don't think it will happen. I actually think the Padres will sign a few garbage starters and no major bats.

Our team is up against the cap, and let's not forget they are still the Padres. I think the biggest thing the Padres need for next year, besides another plus starter, is for Soto to rediscover his stroke. His eye is still as good as ever but his swing is looking long, stiff and slow. We traded for a star who hits .287/.424/.526/.950 lifetime, not just some guy who hits .235/.388/.390/.778. If we had that guy we would likely be in the World Series. If we had him and Tatis hitting like they usually do we would have had a great chance at winning the World Series this year. We don't need more bats, we need the huge bats that we already have to stay healthy, actually show up to play instead of getting suspended and hit like the stars they are.

I think our most important signing this off-season will be our new hitting coach. The Padres should spend $20 million per year if they have to to get someone who can actually get these players to perform. Not another guy nobody has ever heard of just out of college, get the best! Whoever it is we need to outbid everybody else to get the best guy, someone who can get the best out of the players we have.