Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 11:36 am

Going to be a fun battle for 5th and 6th SP in ST..no official word from SDP .. but I think they like how that 6th SP helped with 1 2 3 staying healthy and fresh in 2022.  So I am inclined to believe we will see more of that..

As it stands right now with 1. YU/2. SNELL/3. Joe and /4. MARTINEZ

The battle for 5 and 6.. Groome/Lugo/Morejon/Avila/Font/Wethers/Teheran/Holliday jr/Knher/Waldron/ and others will be a lot of FUN to follow... especially if everyone stays healthy

The battle for #13 position player ST will also be fun.. 1st 12 pretty set baring injury.. Engel on board does open #12 a bit as Azocar could find some comp to keep that spot...

Big ST for Campy as well.. he needs to fend off Severino and challenge Nola for Starts..

Other than that our BP is stacked (and likely needs a few trades to be honest/how many and who will get sorted in ST by how rule V Lopez looks, and how mlb ready/ or healthy guys like Cosgrove/Castillo/Baez/Pomz/Others are

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 11:39 am

https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-padres-announce-2022-opening-day-roster

At least 14 new faces will be in our opening day roster 2023 vs 2022.. find that amazing

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2023, 12:04 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 14, 2023, 11:13 am

Signing Morejon to just above the league minimum was a surprise - most projections I saw were closer to $950,000.  My guess is that there are some incentives in that contract that would include games started and innings pitched that could be expected of someone who could evolve into the #5 or #6 starter role (if you can squeeze out 6 starters on a 13 man pitching roster) vice a RP arm.  We'll see how healthy he is in ST and whether they can stretch him out to go at least 4 innings in the early part of the year.  Could be slotted into a regular long relief role behind Darvish or paired with Lugo/Martinez so he gets into a regular SP rhythm - the rest will be up to him to show whether he gets sent down to El Paso (yikes!) or continues on the major league roster.  This is a critical year for him to establish his future even though he has 2 options left.

Most of us see SA as a better place for a pitching prospect than EP and most seem to think Morejon needs to build up his inning count if he is going to become a SP factor in 2024. Better chance he can get those innings in SA than struggling in EP. Long man with SD, given the top 6 RP and Melvin’s bias toward SP going deeper into games also will not get him those innings or condition him in a starters routine.

I would not be adverse to sending Morejon to SA to start the season … control innings as part of his build up and if needed he may be ready for a mid-seas0n call-up or bump to EP. Add that some time in the minors will extend his control and extra year (2024-26).

Padres appear to have viable alternatives for the ML in 2023 … so the minors route may be the best for Morejon’s development and for the future Padres starting rotation.

Potentially a side benefit to start the season, Padres may hold onto a pitcher without minor league options a bit longer to more fully evaluate under regular season conditions … also retains some insurance for an injury to the initial 13.

If the choices are “close” … may take the route of preserving the most players initially and let time sort performance / health. 162 is a long season and we have seen the number of arms used normally. Maybe that thinking gives Crismatt, Lopez, and Honeywell an advantage in a “toss up” choice at the end of ST.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on January 14, 2023, 12:06 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 11:36 am

Going to be a fun battle for 5th and 6th SP in ST..no official word from SDP .. but I think they like how that 6th SP helped with 1 2 3 staying healthy and fresh in 2022.  So I am inclined to believe we will see more of that..

As it stands right now with 1. YU/2. SNELL/3. Joe and /4. MARTINEZ

The battle for 5 and 6.. Groome/Lugo/Morejon/Avila/Font/Wethers/Teheran/Holliday jr/Knher/Waldron/ and others will be a lot of FUN to follow... especially if everyone stays healthy

The battle for #13 position player ST will also be fun.. 1st 12 pretty set baring injury.. Engel on board does open #12 a bit as Azocar could find some comp to keep that spot...

Big ST for Campy as well.. he needs to fend off Severino and challenge Nola for Starts..

Other than that our BP is stacked (and likely needs a few trades to be honest/how many and who will get sorted in ST by how rule V Lopez looks, and how mlb ready/ or healthy guys like Cosgrove/Castillo/Baez/Pomz/Others are

I can't imagine Engel( and his lack of offense) could supplant Azocar? Or are they both headed to SD?

Isn't Azocar's calling card defense( same as Engel)? And if we see similar offensive numbers as 2022. Azocar is the better player.

I'm also putting my money on Teheran to bounce back and be our #5.

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2023, 12:24 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 14, 2023, 12:06 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 11:36 am

Going to be a fun battle for 5th and 6th SP in ST..no official word from SDP .. but I think they like how that 6th SP helped with 1 2 3 staying healthy and fresh in 2022.  So I am inclined to believe we will see more of that..

As it stands right now with 1. YU/2. SNELL/3. Joe and /4. MARTINEZ

The battle for 5 and 6.. Groome/Lugo/Morejon/Avila/Font/Wethers/Teheran/Holliday jr/Knher/Waldron/ and others will be a lot of FUN to follow... especially if everyone stays healthy

The battle for #13 position player ST will also be fun.. 1st 12 pretty set baring injury.. Engel on board does open #12 a bit as Azocar could find some comp to keep that spot...

Big ST for Campy as well.. he needs to fend off Severino and challenge Nola for Starts..

Other than that our BP is stacked (and likely needs a few trades to be honest/how many and who will get sorted in ST by how rule V Lopez looks, and how mlb ready/ or healthy guys like Cosgrove/Castillo/Baez/Pomz/Others are

I can't imagine Engel( and his lack of offense) could supplant Azocar? Or are they both headed to SD?

Isn't Azocar's calling card defense( same as Engel)? And if we see similar offensive numbers as 2022. Azocar is the better player.

I'm also putting my money on Teheran to bounce back and be our #5.

I see Azocar right now a better defender but he needs to play and will barely see the light of day in an OF of Soto/Grisham/Tatis/Engel and a Carpenter/Cruz DH. Good chance he is optioned to AAA to keep in game shape and refine his hitting. Just a phone call away if needed.

If optioned, most likely on the the fringe roster pieces (not real prospects) fill that 13th position player slot. In theory,  it should be a utility type for emergency INF/OF with good base running skills to come in for Cruz when needed. Hitting would not be much of  a factor. Sort of just do no harm wherever you are needed.

==========

Teheran does have a real shot … guessing not out of ST but early call-up potential. Have not heard if he has one of those deals were he can opt out mid-season if not added to the ML roster. Sometimes that opt out option is after ST.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 1:16 pm

That was more of my thinking Engel will be the 4th OF and Azocar benefits more from AAA regular ABs and Taxi squad to MLB than sitting behind Engel and no playing time.. same with Rosario.. why I think a defensive speedy guy that can play 1B 2B SS 3B and every OF spot as well as P in blowouts.. like Batten (older now too so not really a prospect that needs ABs).. one of the reasons I think Batten will be that 2022 version of Alcantara early on... other non roster guys with similar skills have also been signed so that role might see more than just Batten in 2023.. Dont expect much more than 100-150ABs...as almost all our projected regulars are 150 games a yr types..and DH Queue is likely 3 deep with Cruz/Carp and Campy a little further down the depth chart

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 14, 2023, 1:46 pm

Just occurred to me we need to add Cruz to the 40 and -minus- 1 guy for DFA

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2023, 5:54 pm

Just reflecting on how much the offense has improved for the beginning of last season … and the Padres made the playoffs last year:

Tatis (returns for full season) massive improvement over Mazara (and others)

Soto (full season) major improvement over Profar

Bogaerts (full season) major improvement over Hosmer after recognition of the position changes

Cruz/Carpenter should be improvement over Voit (and others) as DH.

Can debate Campusano and Alfaro as the 2nd catcher

Machado - Kim - Cronenworth - Grisham remain the same.

Preller did really well in building a major offense. Should get credit.

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2023, 6:12 pm

Looking at the pitching with 2022 stats:

1, Musgrove ,,, 30 starts (181 innings) … 2.93 ERA (returns)

2. Darvish … 30 starts (195 innings) … 3.03 ERA (returns)

3. Snell … 24 starts (128 innings) ,,, 3.38 ERA (returns)

had forgotten how good that trio of ERA / innings were at the top of the rotation

4. Manaea … 28 starts (158 innings) …4.96 ERA (gone)

5. Clevinger … 22 starts (114 innings) … 4.33 ERA (gone)

6. Gore … 13 starts (70 innings) … 4.50 ERA (gone)

7. Martinez … 10 starts / 47 games (106 innings) … 3.47 ERA … better in 2022 as a RP but recognize he went 106 innings and the hurdle to take the #4 slot is not that high (see Manaea)

=================

* Lugo (with Mets) .. 0 starts / 68 games (65 innings) … 3.60 ERA … will be interesting to see innings limits but the hurdle for the #5 is not that high (see Clevinger). He should get the first shot.

Not unreasonable to think the starting 5 will be no worse than in 2022 with the Manaea / Clevinger hurdles not that high.

So 6 is really being better than Gore (also not such a big hurdle that a very good chance one (or a combo) of Groome, Morejon, Teheran, et al can match (and potentially exceed)

So, offense massively improved and SP should be no worse (maybe better) than 2022 when the Padres made (and went deep) into the playoffs. Preller has no need to make any panic moves now. They are very good.