Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 15, 2023, 7:06 am

https://twitter.com/BaseballBros/status/1603776355023421443?t=stJXlPV4tK9fRwjyhDMprw&s=19

Opening day Catcher let's Go!

That pop ❤️ 😍

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2023, 10:44 am

On Roster Resource Engel is now listed as signing for $1MM (seems like a real good deal unless he has totally lost it).

Padres are now listed as under the next threshold by only $2.395MM. Incentives … ML call-ups to backfill injuries should easily eat all that up.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 15, 2023, 12:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2023, 10:44 am

On Roster Resource Engel is now listed as signing for $1MM (seems like a real good deal unless he has totally lost it).

Padres are now listed as under the next threshold by only $2.395MM. Incentives … ML call-ups to backfill injuries should easily eat all that up.

Still see a trade or 2 from the BP ..easily creating another $1mil + in room depending on who

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2023, 12:44 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 15, 2023, 12:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2023, 10:44 am

On Roster Resource Engel is now listed as signing for $1MM (seems like a real good deal unless he has totally lost it).

Padres are now listed as under the next threshold by only $2.395MM. Incentives … ML call-ups to backfill injuries should easily eat all that up.

Still see a trade or 2 from the BP ..easily creating another $1mil + in room depending on who

Remember that anyone dealt has to be replaced on the 26 man … likely at league minimum ($720K) plus not able to trade Suarez until Jun 15 since was signed as a FA (same for Lugo and Martinez).

So only four net payroll savings opportunities out of the RP (AAV net of replacement at league minimum)

1. Hader ($13.8)

2. Pomeranz ($7.8)

3. Garcia ($2.8)

4. Hill ($1.1)

Hader is not going anywhere but the other three could be moved. A lot depends on how they look in ST and how their potential replacements look … keeping in mind the Padres want the best pen to win over the potential future value of additional payroll space.

Hope Pomeranz has a hot ST along with Lopez, Castillo, Cosgrove and potential replacements. How much of Pomeranz’s $10MM 2023 contract would the Padres eat to move him (doubt a team in ST will take his full contract). Would the Padres add a mid-range prospect to move his full contract?

Garcia and Hill would help the payroll but not substantially.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 15, 2023, 1:00 pm

There were talks of trying to extend Darvish and replace his current deal to lower his luxury tax hit early in the off-season. I think they'll probably try to revisit that concept. If they can get something done under a 21.5m AAV they could save some CBT money that way.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2023, 1:32 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 15, 2023, 1:00 pm

There were talks of trying to extend Darvish and replace his current deal to lower his luxury tax hit early in the off-season. I think they'll probably try to revisit that concept. If they can get something done under a 21.5m AAV they could save some CBT money that way.

That is a possibility … not sure how his AAV works but the $21.5MM does have a $1MM offset on money coming from the Cubs … so maybe a $20.5 AAV. His 2023 pay is at $19MM.

Given the kind of money being tossed around this winter (and seeing the money Scherzer / Verlander are getting as older SP) plus he is coming off a good season … he may not be all that interested in a lower contract … maybe looking higher than $19MM in 2023 and going forward.

Note to change the 2023 AAV the new contract needs to replace the current deal … not just extend it.

The strategy may have to be giving Darvish an “extra” year at a lower salary (but without getting into conflict with MLB). No idea what Darvish would want in a length of contract (probably 3 years minimum at his age) … so would giving a 4th (at a lower salary) work for both sides?

$80/4 ($20MM AAV) or $90MM/5 ($18MM AAV) … or something similar … make sense for both sides? That 5th has Darvish around age 41 so probably not all that productive and Darvish as a FA probably not going to get a FA deal … the extra $10MM may make sense for him. Given the CBT penalties, would the potential money saved on penalties in the current tier but more important if avoiding going to next tier offset some of that “extra” $10MM?

Both sides will need their financial “A Team” working the scenarios / dollars to get this done.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 16, 2023, 6:25 am

In the interest of being a little silly, and always liking the idea of brothers being on the same MLB team at the same time, so with SD signing Salas, how about this.

SD gets Luzardo, Garrett, Berti, and Salas. MIA gets Grisham, Kim, and Merrill.

SD saves a little money, gets 10 years of control of ML ready SP, and Salas gets to go through the system with his brother, and both are SH prospects. MLB.com rates Merrill a 55 overall, and Salas as a 50 and he might not stick at SS depending on how he fills out. But they say he could be a 2B, CF, or 3B. But with Bogaerts and Tatis, we have the ability to cover SS for awhile.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 16, 2023, 6:53 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 16, 2023, 6:25 am

In the interest of being a little silly, and always liking the idea of brothers being on the same MLB team at the same time, so with SD signing Salas, how about this.

SD gets Luzardo, Garrett, Berti, and Salas. MIA gets Grisham, Kim, and Merrill.

SD saves a little money, gets 10 years of control of ML ready SP, and Salas gets to go through the system with his brother, and both are SH prospects. MLB.com rates Merrill a 55 overall, and Salas as a 50 and he might not stick at SS depending on how he fills out. But they say he could be a 2B, CF, or 3B. But with Bogaerts and Tatis, we have the ability to cover SS for awhile.

You lost me at Merrill . AJP didn't move Merrill for Soto..I doubt he moves him for anything short of Sandy Alcantara/Bryan Reynolds or better type ...

If it ain't broke don't fix it man.. GG Defense up the middle was probably the most influential factor for the 2022 Padres.. If I am trading for Luzardo (and now I am in the Luzardo (or equivalent) or nothing train of thought.. I am only moving Grish (not Kim).. I would probably do Grish + Lizarraga for Luzardo and leave it at that... if we want to swap prospects Rosario is a 50 and Ethan's Bro is a 50.. swap them out..

Soto's Bro likely would have been a Padre had Soto been acquired last offseason instead of deadline since this kids pretty much agree to deals about a year in advance... Like DeVie to Padres next January already being the thing...

Quote from BoosterSD on January 16, 2023, 7:15 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 16, 2023, 6:53 am

You lost me at Merrill . AJP didn't move Merrill for Soto..I doubt he moves him for anything short of Sandy Alcantara/Bryan Reynolds or better type ...

If it ain't broke don't fix it man.. GG Defense up the middle was probably the most influential factor for the 2022 Padres.. If I am trading for Luzardo (and now I am in the Luzardo (or equivalent) or nothing train of thought.. I am only moving Grish (not Kim).. I would probably do Grish + Lizarraga for Luzardo and leave it at that... if we want to swap prospects Rosario is a 50 and Ethan's Bro is a 50.. swap them out..

I get Merrill. And I think there could be a way to change the prospects to make it work without Merrill. And I think you might be over valuing Rosario and Lizarraga. Even though they are both 50s, it seems that the older Salas may have more prospect value than Rosario, so I dont think many would think that they are an even swap at least according to some websites. But the bigger trade gets us two young, controllable SPs for a total of 10 years.

And I get the defense idea as well. However, you would trade Grisham, so you counter yourself in that statement. And while Kim is great defensively, Crone is just as good especially at 2B. So no change in defense, yes we would need to back fill something at 1B. I back on thinking that SD needs to pull the trigger for Yandy Diaz from TAM. He and Carpenter can split 1B duties. And then you can mix and match Diaz, Cruz, and Carpenter at DH.