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2023 offseason
#3201 · January 13, 2023, 10:09 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 9:58 amQuote from fenn68 on January 13, 2023, 8:30 amThis may be one of the more difficult arbitration rounds for Preller with both Soto and Hader in play for BIG money.
Consider Hader. MLBTR pegs him around $13MM (historically they are close). However, betting that Hader's agent will be pushing (and holding out) for a lot more ... and may have a case.
1.If you look at his past 5 years as a RP, he is ranked #3 (8.5 WAR) only behind Diaz and Hendricks (9.4 WAR)
2. Arbitrators consider the career of a player, not just the last season ... and although 2022 had some bad stats for Hader he still was near the lead in saves and his ERA downfall was based on a Jun/Jul only.
3. Old conventional wisdom was that the last arbitration should be around 80% of what he would get as a FA.
4. Enter this winter's Diaz contract. Drop off the post opt out years and for the next three years Diaz will average $21.3MM.
5. If you drop that down to $20MM (Diaz slight more productive in the past 5 years) then apply 80% ... Hader has an argument for $16MM.
6. If he gets that, that cuts half of the payroll space for the Padres under the next threshold ... down to less than $3MM with Engel not yet included.
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Soto may also have a case for a number above the MLBTR estimate again based on the overall high payouts this winter.
Not going to be "easy" for Preller this round.
Yet both may take a little less to give AJP a little extra room say Hader $12.6 and Soto $21.9 to help the WS chances
I would not bet on that.
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BoosterSD
#3202 · January 13, 2023, 10:20 am
MLBTR had Grisham at 2.6m he got 3.175m
They had Hill at 1.7m he got 1.85m
#3203 · January 13, 2023, 10:24 am
3 of 8 arb players are done, 5 to go.
Of the five remaining, 2 should be easier in Morejon and Nola. One a little more difficult in Cronenworth. And the last two being the most difficult in Soto and Hader.
Would not be surprised if either Soto or Hader actually go to the arbitrator.
#3204 · January 13, 2023, 10:38 am
#3205 · January 13, 2023, 10:40 am
Juan Soto, Padres agree: $23M
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2023
I was faster than Jon on Soto lol
#3206 · January 13, 2023, 10:41 am
Hader too 14.1
#3207 · January 13, 2023, 10:41 am
AJP don't like no arbitrator nonsense... lol
#3208 · January 13, 2023, 11:00 am
So far, about $3.25M over what MLBTR was predicting for the arb numbers.
Good to see what I thought was going to be the difficult ones done early, the biggest one now is Crone. Multi year deal for him, maybe?
#3209 · January 13, 2023, 11:11 am
I am interested to see the arb numbers for Berti and Luzardo, as it could relate to a SD-MIA trade.
And then for fun, interested to see what Renfroe's number comes in at as well.
#3210 · January 13, 2023, 11:19 am
Think Nola signed for $2.35MM.
Morejon and Cronenwoth still pending .... but IF at MLBTR estimates, Padres are about $3.2MM under the threshold to the next penalty level and that is without counting Engel (no salary reported). Given most signings have be above the MLBTR estimate .... and add Engel ... going to be really near the breaking point.