Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 6:49 am

Andrew McCutchen 1yr back with Pitates

Why I post here? Cause 1yr guys are always on my radar as potential deadline pickups if we need them

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2023, 7:30 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 6:49 am

Andrew McCutchen 1yr back with Pitates

Why I post here? Cause 1yr guys are always on my radar as potential deadline pickups if we need them

Makes you wonder if this means a deal is in place to move Reynolds....Rangers?

Bringing back Cutch would help "ease the angst" with the fans for one thing plus give them a legit outfielder.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2023, 7:32 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 6:49 am

Andrew McCutchen 1yr back with Pitates

Why I post here? Cause 1yr guys are always on my radar as potential deadline pickups if we need them

1 year Starting Pitchers will most likely be of interest to Preller at the deadline.

Hopefully it won't become necessary......but?

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2023, 7:34 am

Since we have gone into mega spending/win mode, I normally dont suggest many DFA candidates for SD to consider. However Mark Leiter Jr. has just been DFA'd. I know he was once considered a top level prospect, and not sure if he has options left, probably not.

But is this type of arm SD should look at taking a flyer on?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 7:56 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2023, 7:34 am

Since we have gone into mega spending/win mode, I normally dont suggest many DFA candidates for SD to consider. However Mark Leiter Jr. has just been DFA'd. I know he was once considered a top level prospect, and not sure if he has options left, probably not.

But is this type of arm SD should look at taking a flyer on?

I don't know man is he better than Poppen ? Or whomever is lowest hanging fruit on 40?.. his metrics don't look good.. and it's early in the process I say wait on other DFAs who bring us > fit upgrade..

I probably like to see Font/Teheran in ST Before adding someone like Leiter Jr to the 40.. I guess we can always DFA him again.. but I would like him better on a minot league deal

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2023, 7:59 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 7:56 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2023, 7:34 am

Since we have gone into mega spending/win mode, I normally dont suggest many DFA candidates for SD to consider. However Mark Leiter Jr. has just been DFA'd. I know he was once considered a top level prospect, and not sure if he has options left, probably not.

But is this type of arm SD should look at taking a flyer on?

I don't know man is he better than Poppen ? Or whomever is lowest hanging fruit on 40?.. his metrics don't look good.. and it's early in the process I say wait on other DFAs who bring us > fit upgrade..

I probably like to see Font/Teheran in ST Before adding someone like Leiter Jr to the 40.. I guess we can always DFA him again.. but I would like him better on a minot league deal

Sorry, had him confused with Jack Leiter.

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2023, 8:30 am

This may be one of the more difficult arbitration rounds for Preller with both Soto and Hader in play for BIG money.

Consider Hader. MLBTR pegs him around $13MM (historically they are close). However, betting that Hader's agent will be pushing (and holding out) for a lot more ... and may have a case.

1.If you look at his past 5 years as a RP, he is ranked #3 (8.5 WAR) only behind Diaz and Hendricks (9.4 WAR)

2. Arbitrators consider the career of a player, not just the last season ... and although 2022 had some bad stats for Hader he still was near the lead in saves and his ERA downfall was based on a Jun/Jul only.

3. Old conventional wisdom was that the last arbitration should be around 80% of what he would get as a FA.

4. Enter this winter's Diaz contract. Drop off the post opt out years and for the next three years Diaz will average $21.3MM.

5. If you drop that down to $20MM (Diaz slight more productive in the past 5 years) then apply 80% ... Hader has an argument for $16MM.

6. If he gets that, that cuts half of the payroll space for the Padres under the next threshold ... down to less than $3MM with Engel not yet included.

=======

Soto may also have a case for a number above the MLBTR estimate again based on the overall high payouts this winter.

Not going to be "easy" for Preller this round.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 9:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2023, 8:30 am

This may be one of the more difficult arbitration rounds for Preller with both Soto and Hader in play for BIG money.

Consider Hader. MLBTR pegs him around $13MM (historically they are close). However, betting that Hader's agent will be pushing (and holding out) for a lot more ... and may have a case.

1.If you look at his past 5 years as a RP, he is ranked #3 (8.5 WAR) only behind Diaz and Hendricks (9.4 WAR)

2. Arbitrators consider the career of a player, not just the last season ... and although 2022 had some bad stats for Hader he still was near the lead in saves and his ERA downfall was based on a Jun/Jul only.

3. Old conventional wisdom was that the last arbitration should be around 80% of what he would get as a FA.

4. Enter this winter's Diaz contract. Drop off the post opt out years and for the next three years Diaz will average $21.3MM.

5. If you drop that down to $20MM (Diaz slight more productive in the past 5 years) then apply 80% ... Hader has an argument for $16MM.

6. If he gets that, that cuts half of the payroll space for the Padres under the next threshold ... down to less than $3MM with Engel not yet included.

=======

Soto may also have a case for a number above the MLBTR estimate again based on the overall high payouts this winter.

Not going to be "easy" for Preller this round.

Yet both may take a little less to give AJP a little extra room say Hader $12.6 and Soto $21.9 to help the WS chances

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 13, 2023, 10:05 am

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1613960184661176320?t=3t3r34jYfqW7PaaHjgfOFA&s=19

Hill done