Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 3:07 pm

The other part of trading for starting pitching is simply the numbers.  Each of the 30 teams has got to have at least 9 pitchers completing for the starting rotation - that equals a potential pool of at least 270 starters.  If you deduct the Padres 9, you get 261 and then eliminate the top 25% of the remainder as staff aces/untradeable you still get around 195 pitchers who are contending for the 3-5 spot in other teams' rotations.

With some pitchers emerging and some getting injured as well as team needs in the position player spots emerging, there should be ample opportunity to land that missing piece to solidify the Padres pitching staff, even if no internal candidates emerge.  Financial concerns and a realistic view of how the season will play out may also determine whether some pitchers are dealt.  It's a numbers game and given the above considerations I think the Padres are in very good position to further strengthen their SP staff as we move closer to opening day.  If not, we'll just outscore them by a bunch!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 3:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 3:01 pm

Once Tatis returns, and with Engel the 4th OF, and Carpenter apparently having the skill to be the emergency 5th OF … could we see Azocar optioned to AAA where he plays every day and be poised for a call-up?

Would expect Soto and Tatis basically playing every day … and Grisham / Engel covering CF. Not much playing time for Azocar except as a defense replacement.

With Engel a one year player … will need Azocar (until something better comes around) for back-up CF in 2024 so would not trade him. Plus if an injury in 2023 he is the call-up.

IF Azocar is optioned … open slot but with Cruz on board no value in a DH/1B type or a 3rd C. So, do they have either a “specialist” for PR duties/defense (but not a real prospect) or do they opt for a more versatile INF/OF utility type for emergencies (again not a big prospect type). Sitting as the 13 position player on the roster will an exercise in frustration unless an older player who recognized his limited future.

Maybe that is life for Batten / Dixon? Maybe non-roster Schrock gets a longer look.

With Howell in AAA and almost ready (big ST could put him on 26) and his unique defensive skill set of SS/CF/2B) he is my sleeper pick for #13... Azocar could be at AAA or then again because of Howell same or > defense + more speed and power than Azocar.. and the lack of CFers in MLB could Miami take the longer controlled Azocar over Grish in a package for one of their SP..or even one further down the line ready in 2024?.. not saying Azocar as the primary piece but what if we can keep Grish and pit together a package Morejon + Azocar + Campusano that fits into Marlins window better for one of their arms (maybe include a golden ticket further down the line like #17 spec SS Rojas)... Howell's ++ defense, speed and position flexibility could be the best fit for the 2023 Padres.. occasional playing time won't expose the team, if anything it could spark it.. think Azocar 210 or so ABs in 2022..pushed to maybe 250.. between CF/SS/2B..and PR

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 3:15 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 2:57 pm

Post suspension, barring injury our everyday batting order/starting line-up would probably look something like this:

1. Tatis  RF
2. Cronenworth 1b
3. Machado 3b
4. Soto LF
5. Bogaerts SS
6. Carpenter/Cruz DH
7. Campusano/Nola c
8. Kim 2b
9. Grisham CF                                                                                                                                                                                                         Previously, I projected Cronenworth to have a very good year, looking more like he did in 2021.  I'm hoping we see a little more growth from Kim, not so much in BA, but more OBP and SA (believe a 330/420 is possible for a 750 OPS) to go along with a slightly improved BA - maybe 260-ish.  Grisham will never be a great hitter, but a 225-230 average is possible with an occasional pop -12-18 HRs.  If you get this from the bottom of the line-up and just average performance from your 6th and 7th hitters, we should have a very productive line-up.  The question with Grisham is whether you could get almost the same kind of offensive production by platooning Azocar and Dahl.  If so, then Grisham could be on the move but not until we get pretty deep into spring training.

Think with that top of the line-up … and if they don’t do a lot of juggling (no real need) … can see a lot of benefit of taking pressure of Kim/Grisham/Nola to produce in the clutch game after game. The should get more AB with runners on … more pressure on the pitchers to make a mistakes.  Plus the top of the line-up should knock out the SP earlier more often and then the team feasts on the second tier arms trying to finish the games.

That “a rising time lifts all ships” should make the stat line for everyone better even if they really are not improved.

Have see over the years secondary hitters on outstanding offensive teams appear to be better than they are … then go to a team that wants them in a key role and underperform their history. Now being mercenary, if stat-wise this team gets Kim/Grisham/Nola to appear better than they are … trade value next winter will go up and that is a good thing for the Padres.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 3:25 pm

Fenn, you are correct.  I forgot about Engel; it would be Engel over Azocar.  AND Schrock, a LH bat, can also play outfield but not CF.  Could be in the picture if Dahl doesn't show well.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 3:33 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 3:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 3:01 pm

Once Tatis returns, and with Engel the 4th OF, and Carpenter apparently having the skill to be the emergency 5th OF … could we see Azocar optioned to AAA where he plays every day and be poised for a call-up?

Would expect Soto and Tatis basically playing every day … and Grisham / Engel covering CF. Not much playing time for Azocar except as a defense replacement.

With Engel a one year player … will need Azocar (until something better comes around) for back-up CF in 2024 so would not trade him. Plus if an injury in 2023 he is the call-up.

IF Azocar is optioned … open slot but with Cruz on board no value in a DH/1B type or a 3rd C. So, do they have either a “specialist” for PR duties/defense (but not a real prospect) or do they opt for a more versatile INF/OF utility type for emergencies (again not a big prospect type). Sitting as the 13 position player on the roster will an exercise in frustration unless an older player who recognized his limited future.

Maybe that is life for Batten / Dixon? Maybe non-roster Schrock gets a longer look.

With Howell in AAA and almost ready (big ST could put him on 26) and his unique defensive skill set of SS/CF/2B) he is my sleeper pick for #13... Azocar could be at AAA or then again because of Howell same or > defense + more speed and power than Azocar.. and the lack of CFers in MLB could Miami take the longer controlled Azocar over Grish in a package for one of their SP..or even one further down the line ready in 2024?.. not saying Azocar as the primary piece but what if we can keep Grish and pit together a package Morejon + Azocar + Campusano that fits into Marlins window better for one of their arms (maybe include a golden ticket further down the line like #17 spec SS Rojas)... Howell's ++ defense, speed and position flexibility could be the best fit for the 2023 Padres.. occasional playing time won't expose the team, if anything it could spark it.. think Azocar 210 or so ABs in 2022..pushed to maybe 250.. between CF/SS/2B..and PR

We see Howell differently … not near ML ready. In 2022 only 146 AB before injury ended his season in AA. BA not great but a more worrisome 37% K%. He really needs more time in the minors … IF they consider him a real prospect he needs to play (mainly to refine his hitting) and not be the 13th man … he would not get much playing time ahead of Engel or Carpenter.

Side: Howell appears to be the kind of ranked prospect that frustrates me … ranked because he has all the tools except hitting and that profile rarely turns into a productive ML player.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 3:39 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 3:25 pm

Fenn, you are correct.  I forgot about Engel; it would be Engel over Azocar.  AND Schrock, a LH bat, can also play outfield but not CF.  Could be in the picture if Dahl doesn't show well.

Plus if they burn through Grisham and Engel … Tatis would swing over to CF. So, could argue that Azocar (or any other CF option) is really unnecessary for the 13 position players if Azocar is only a phone call away.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2023, 8:19 pm

SD signs a local kid, Alfonso Rivas, LHH that according to MLBTR can really glove it at 1B, he is 26 and had some decent OBP and SLG numbers in the MiL, walks a lot, but whiffs a lot as well. He still has some options as well. Has played a little in OF corners as well.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 8:30 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2023, 8:19 pm

SD signs a local kid, Alfonso Rivas, LHH that according to MLBTR can really glove it at 1B, he is 26 and had some decent OBP and SLG numbers in the MiL, walks a lot, but whiffs a lot as well. He still has some options as well. Has played a little in OF corners as well.

Minor league deal... nice insurance AAA guy and lefty which is a +...

Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2023, 8:38 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 8:30 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2023, 8:19 pm

SD signs a local kid, Alfonso Rivas, LHH that according to MLBTR can really glove it at 1B, he is 26 and had some decent OBP and SLG numbers in the MiL, walks a lot, but whiffs a lot as well. He still has some options as well. Has played a little in OF corners as well.

Minor league deal... nice insurance AAA guy and lefty which is a +...

It would be nice if he could start swinging like our last LHH 1B from Chula Vista.