Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 20, 2022, 7:13 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 20, 2022, 5:56 am

I assume they will address our own free agents/option players first.

I also hope they concentrate on SP before bats.

IF we can bring Myers back at a good cost to play 1b we at least will know its addressed if we can't also add another 1b/DH type.

I'm hoping to have Suarez/Martinez and Myers back.

Not sure we will make serious offers to Bell and Drury though.

I'm thinking we won't be having a $225+ mil payroll in 23'.

 

I think DRURY is > Myers .. overall.. He hits the ball hard often is a freaking RBI machine.. I mean even when he is struggling (3 RBis yesterday) he delivers.. I feel better with Drury /Crone at 4-5/5-4 depending RH/LH than anyone else ... Bell and Myers are like #6 or #7 types..

With that said Myers Back as a platoon/Def replacement at 1B getting 100 or so games at 1B/a few in LF/PH... and Drury 140 at DH/1B/3B/2B/PH... would be very good as well...

Bell I fear will get too much $$ and don't think he is as good as Drury + Myers combo.. who will combined for = or < $$

Quote from fenn68 on October 21, 2022, 7:33 am

OK, a very unlikely scenario but can make the argument for Soto going to DH and Tatis to RF.

First I had not paid much attention to Soto’s defense but after the Gold Glove nomination I did some research and his metrics make him one of the worst defensive RF in MLB … which confirms my observations on some very poor jumps, routes, decisions on throws. Yes, he throws in a spectacular play now and then but that is the exception.

Tatis is likely to go to the OF … with Grisham likely stay in CF and Tatis with a great throwing arm RF may be better home than LF. Since he may be there for years … easier to fill a LF slot with an “noodle arm” player.

Then add Melvin clearly has a bias towards defense and even without seeing him in RF … expect Tatis to be better than Soto defensively and if you believe the hype an outstanding defensive player.

If Profar returns to LF (he ranked #2 defensively) with Grisham in CF (ranked #1) then insert Tatis in RF … and elite OF defense. Couple that with Machado’s - Kim - Cronenworth … all top line defensively … while keeping the same bats in the line-up.

Would be 1B the remaking void to fill. Nola may not grade out great defensive but he clearly knows how to handle the staff … so not a liability.

Will not play out that way but other than ticking off Soto (and his agent) … structurally makes defensive sense without altering the offense … in theory.

Quote from 84padres on October 21, 2022, 7:49 am

Off the wall thought : what about Soto to 1B and Tatis to RF ? Soto is a butcher in RF but looks to be a 1B in the future .

Quote from fenn68 on October 21, 2022, 8:05 am

Quote from 84padres on October 21, 2022, 7:49 am

Off the wall thought : what about Soto to 1B and Tatis to RF ? Soto is a butcher in RF but looks to be a 1B in the future .

Thought about that … might be interesting to test that in ST … Padres sort have worked through defensive liabilities at 1B in recent years with Hosmer, Voit, Drury, and Bell … so not a real high bar for Soto to cross. MLB has a lot of defensively challenged 1B if they have a bat.

The concern going in would be projecting a super athlete (Tatis) and moving him to the OF seems doable BUT projecting an already defensive challenged OF and moving him to 1B where he has to deal with ground balls, throws to 2B on double plays, and the need for agility receiving throws … highly doubtful considering Melvin’s bias toward defense.

Worth a look in ST though even if just as a part time fill.

Reality the Padres may not want to make any move the might get into Soto’s head and diminish why they traded for him … a big hitter. The move from WASH to SD seems to have diminished his offensive productively (can debate the reason) so another change would be a downside risk that may be greater than living with the defensive liability in RF

Quote from BoosterSD on October 21, 2022, 8:22 am

I think the only defensive move I would to make with Soto, is a move back to LF instead of RF. He has basically played the same amount of games in LF as he has in RF. So that switch, especially in the bigger parks of the NL West might result in the least offensive move to Soto, and have the least effect on his bat. And looking at his splits on baseball reference, he actually has better numbers in LF than RF, so maybe a move back to LF is the answer for Soto.

Quote from fenn68 on October 21, 2022, 1:28 pm

The offseason should be a challenge for the analytics staff evaluation existing and potential new players for the offense.

Consider the elimination of much of the shifting, hitters allowed to call time only once during an AB, and the schedule change that reduces games in your own division (so less in the big ballparks in the WEST).  The analytical departments probably can lay out every batted ball by each player (direction / exit velocity / trajectory) and then plot expected results based an the defense they should see under the new rules. Might make a difference on who (and how much) players benefit (or don’t). Hard to quantify but there are hitters who take forever between pitches and call time out repeatedly … might they have a problem with the new time rule to get into the box and the single time-out per AB? What happens with Padre players who will have less AB in LA, SF, AZ, and COLO and more AB in AL parks (weather, dimensions) which also can be simulated.

We may never see the analysis but if they go that route … some players we project with good or bad stats may be viewed differently in the new environment and we get surprised by who they let go and who they add.

Same for the pitchers with the time clock and the limits on pickoff attempts. Can pitchers with a slow approach change and remain effective? Would a team shy away from pitcher with slow delivery to the plate / poor pick-off approach?

Will catcher’s throwing become LESS important given the runners may have a major advantage on jumps will be extremely hard to offset by a cacher’s arm but on the other had will we start seeing more catcher to 1st base pick-off attempts making the arm MORE important?

Will base-running speed become more important and alter who among the fringe players are retained / added.

2023 should be fun as we see a different (hopefully better and faster) game.

Quote from fenn68 on October 21, 2022, 1:54 pm

A good chance the Padres don’t sign any of Bell, Myers, or Drury … especially if they focus the money on SP (good pitching beats good hitting) and the re-signing of Martinez, Suarez, and Profar to guaranteed deals.

If looking at offense (past 4 seasons) … Bell is by far the most productive (wRC+), Myers in the middle about 10% above average, and Drury is 3rd at under league average.

If defense … forget Bell who is a very bad 1B (really a DH only) … Myers may be the best 1B … Drury has INF versatility to cover 2B/3B as well as 1B and is decent.

Then the all important money (contract) … Bell likely the biggest (and longest) deal making him a long shot. Drury thought to merit a mulit-year deal with some team as a full-time player (probably 3B) and not a utility guy, Drury may opt for moving on for the contract / starting role … maybe not be an easy re-sign for the Padres. Myers is a mystery … but as much hostility he gets for performance in SD he is a slight above average hitter and is decent defensively as a 1B and as an OF with other teams needing bats more than the Padres. He probably would like to return (not sure if Preller does) but would be OK getting a fresh start in a hitter’s park.

In all cases money first … and Padres may not play to the needed level.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 21, 2022, 1:56 pm

This could be a huge factor in deciding on whether or not to resign Drury or not. With not as much time in the NL West parks, do you see a Drury closer to his CIN numbers, than his numbers in SD after the trade. IF the front office thinks so, then does he become a priority to resign? Maybe even the same with Bell? Who pencils out better? Does Myers become more attractive? Is there a fringe LHH 1B, that may not have been on the SD radar, that becomes more palatible?

And the strategy might come back into play, with the limited throw overs, and pitch clocks. Do we see some pre-DH NL options come back into fashion, like the hit and run, pitch outs, pinch runners? Will these things help eliminate the every boring 3 outcome hitters that have become blah IMO.

Maybe this will better combine the DH which many of did not want to see, and the "small ball" of the NL into a more exciting game??

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 23, 2022, 5:26 am

Man I just realized FA starts in like 2 1/2 weeks... OMG!