Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2023, 11:50 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 11:42 am

My guess is that because we need some early length in the bullpen and possibly a 6th or piggyback starter, we will option out both Hill and Wilson (who have options) and keep Morejon and Groome while adding Crismatt and retaining Lopez.  As Fenn mentions, several of these (I'm looking at Hill, Crismatt, Garcia) could be traded and I agree that it is likely Poppin will be the DFA person.   It is possible we will try to sneak Honeywell through if he shows a healthy arm in spring training and the other possibility is that Pomeranz goes on the IL again.

Heard part of an interview with Pomeranz the other night on MLB on XM, and he says that he will ready to go full bore for ST. His throwing program is only a week or two behind where he would normally be if he was healthy the season before.

He also mentioned how this is Machado's team now, and he is the leader of the team. He mentioned that Cruz would help Machado in that situation as well, taking some of that "burden" off of Manny's shoulders. Sounds like the Cruz signing has an additional bonus aside from on field production.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 11:51 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2023, 11:42 am

From Fenn:

"13 pitchers on the active roster … but 25 pitchers on the 40 man … some on the bubble types without minor league options and no clear cut 6th starter.

There are 11 “probable” for the final 13: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell; Martinez; Lugo; Hader; Suarez; Pomeranz; Garcia; Hill; Wilson; (all are potential trade chips)

The remaking 2 come out of:

4 players without minor league options: Crismatt; Lopez; Poppin; Honeywell (trade chips, DFA candidates, Lopez returned to original club as a Rule 5)

10 that could be optioned: Morejon; Groome; Weathers; Avila; Knehr; Filipe; Baez; Castillo; Cosgrove; Kerr (all trade chips … but no need unless a good return."

My guess is that because we need some early length in the bullpen and possibly a 6th or piggyback starter, we will option out both Hill and Wilson (who have options) and keep Morejon and Groome while adding Crismatt and retaining Lopez.  As Fenn mentions, several of these (I'm looking at Hill, Crismatt, Garcia) could be traded and I agree that it is likely Poppin will be the DFA person.   It is possible we will try to sneak Honeywell through if he shows a healthy arm in spring training and the other possibility is that Pomeranz goes on the IL again.

 

Then again if Honeywell is DR like 0.96 ERA in ST.. he could start in SD as #5 or 6th and AJP can manipulate IL stints to give him some rest as needed ..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 12:05 pm

So Position wise baring a trade pretty much all set post Tatis

1. Machado

2. Soto

3. Tatis

4. Xander

5. Crone

6. Cruz

7. Carp

8. Nola

9. Grish

10. Kim

11. Campy

12. Engel

13. Azocar

 

Before Tatis ..I could see Dixon or Rosario as #13.. but if everyone is healthy post ST the above 13 (in no particular order) is our projected 13 position players for opening day (minus Tatis 4/20)..

Compare that to our opening day 13 2022.. and we are way better.. even without Tatis

Only things to watch for in ST is who sets the tables as 1st up etc.. when Knicks and bruises happen..

P 13 is a different story

SP 1-4 pretty set with Nick

#5 and #6 ??

#7 (closer) Hader

8 Suarez

9. Garcia

10-13 baring a trade of Garcia above.. is where the battles will be ..with Hill/Wilson and Lugo all but guaranteed the majority of available innings (Lugo could factor at #5 or #6 as well)..and if healthy and pitching well Pomz will be in... not sure if Lopez is as good as I think he is (could be with control ^) forces a trade of 2 of some mentioned here..not to mention the presence of Morejon/Crismatt/Baez/and others

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 1:07 pm

Morejon will be an interesting call. Start with the basic point that the Padres really really like his potential … he is still young … he is low cost … he has minor league options … and, probably a lot lower trade value than his value to the Padres if kept.

He has 3 years control but if optioned to the minors to fully condition as a SP … they will end up adding a year of control … so three seasons 2024-6.

Although the Padres want to see him as a SP … IF Pomeranz is injured (traded) and Castillo is injured (or just not effective in ST) and Lopez is not ML ready … could see him back in the pen as LHRP.

I would go the minor league route … given the current options for the final 13 in 2023 and the potential wipeout of pitchers to FA after the season. Even if he does not hit his original projections and settles in as a mid-bottom rotation arm … that is still a lot of value (low cost) as they fill out the 2024 + roster.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 1:25 pm

I hope Pomeranz’ interview (and his optimism) translates into ST performance … but optimism in the past has not really panned out.

At the same time, Lopez, Castillo, Cosgrove, and Morejon will be battling for a spot as a LHRP. Not sure they would deal a low cost veteran in Hill of the LHRP group who has been very productive for his cost but still unlikely to generate much in a trade.

Assuming everyone is healthy and (being optimistic) all are showing ML readiness, Padres will have and interesting call.

Trade Pomeranz knowing that a healthy Pomeranz is a dominant LHRP and in a pennant race having two LH dominant RP is great plus adds insurance if Hader goes down to injury? Probably gets a decent prospect if dealt and saves some money if traded.

How good do the potential replacements have to look for the Padres take that gamble? I see “potential” in the others … but do they take the gamble to start 2023 or nurture the options for mid-season call-ups / 2024?

Maybe not so clear cut decision (also assuming another team would take on the risk).

(Note: I would take the gamble and trade him if I could … just too much history of injuries and an expensive FA in 2024 … to take the risk of him on the roster and expect a full season and elite performance)

==========

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 1:32 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 1:07 pm

Morejon will be an interesting call. Start with the basic point that the Padres really really like his potential … he is still young … he is low cost … he has minor league options … and, probably a lot lower trade value than his value to the Padres if kept.

He has 3 years control but if optioned to the minors to fully condition as a SP … they will end up adding a year of control … so three seasons 2024-6.

Although the Padres want to see him as a SP … IF Pomeranz is injured (traded) and Castillo is injured (or just not effective in ST) and Lopez is not ML ready … could see him back in the pen as LHRP.

I would go the minor league route … given the current options for the final 13 in 2023 and the potential wipeout of pitchers to FA after the season. Even if he does not hit his original projections and settles in as a mid-bottom rotation arm … that is still a lot of value (low cost) as they fill out the 2024 + roster.

The other way this could go is Morejon is our #6 from day 1 and he goes 65-75innings for 2023 (was 47.1 combined Minors and MLB in 2023) assuming 4 avg per start that's about 18 starts... (if he goes 5 avg 13 to 15)..as the #6 probably can skip 5 or 6 starts along the way when off days allow for this..so that puts his max innings ceiling for 2023 around mid August.. lets say he makes it til deadline and gets shut down til 2024..that would be a Huge Win for SDP..and get 65-75 IP of the roughly 300 IP it needs to cover from 2022 (Clev/Gore/Sean) to 2023 .. leaving 225-230 innings for the rest of the guys..

No need to waste innings at AA or AAA when he can pitch at the MLB level

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 12, 2023, 1:35 pm

I've said it before, and I'll say it again....DO NOT TRADE your young controllable pitching for anything less than a proven young starting pitcher that is controllable for at least two years that is truly going to move the needle.

Teams aren't going to move a starting pitcher like that until the deadline and only if they are out of contention. We all agree that pitching is the most valuable commodity for any team and depth is the name of the game. I don't want to be in the situation where we take on a Jake Arrieta again...that was embarrassing.

AJ has done a good job of stockpiling some pitching that will all be hungry for a MLB job and a chance to pitch for a contender at a minimal cost. It only takes one or two of these guys to become the next Cinderella story and if they don't then they become trade chips down the road for position prospects in the areas the Padres are light on.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2023, 1:41 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 9:52 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-dfa-connor-seabold.html

 

Seabold is an interesting DFA.. some (Fangraphs #7) had him >Groome in the Red Sox system last yr.. sure he got rocked like a pinata last yr at Boston .but his FIP was nearly 50% of his actual ERA and his AAA numbers were pretty solid.. not saying he is our SP or anything ...I just think he would improve our upside vs Poppen or Brooks (AAA) ..probably a moot point since he is almost going to be claimed by a lot of teams ahead of us..

Well maybe not “moot”. Seabold has a minor league option as I understand … Padres don’t really have a 40 man roster problem … and BOST has a window to trade Seabold before any waiver claim is honored (if he is claimed).

Given that BOST will lose him for zip via waivers (if claimed) … and probably not a lot of teams would claim him AND try to trade to jump the first priority team (27 and high risk for 2023) … Padres could put in a claim and then work a trade for minor prospect and the always popular Cash Considerations.

Basically take a 2023 flyer on health / rebound looking more towards 2024. Sort of a similar move as with Honeywell, Poppin, and even Lopez … need pitching so gather everyone with upside and weed them out in ST/minors.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 12, 2023, 1:45 pm

BTW in looking at Padres 2022 baseball reference

Crismatt 0.6 WAR was #7 amongst all pitchers just ahead of 0.5 Clevenger.

We also used 30 different Pitchers in 2022..including Myers and Batten..so 28 actual Pitchers so expect many if not ALL the guys we've mentioned (and some we havent) to see some innings at some point or another and some (J. Guerra for example early on ) get traded before or soon after the season starts..

One guy not getting mentioned much is knuckleballer Waldon.. a bit older but serious miss bats as he "learned" the knuckle ball which he throws harder than the typical knuckleballer but with great movement ..some think a little more seasoning (mastering of the pitch) and he can be a very effective mid rotation guy.. hope to see him /Cienfuegos and Brito at ST..