Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2022, 6:56 am

Maybe an insight to Padres moves during the off-season. Since the playoffs are the time to go with your best team options, watching Melvin’s line-up / moves may be giving clues.

1. As much as Profar has made the great diving catches, throws and has a high DRS total … Melvin has been putting in Azocar for defense. With Tatis returning (likely to the OF) and Melvin’s confidence in Grisham even after a poor regular season … better indication that Tatis in in LF / Grisham in CF with Profar becoming that super utility guy (if he does not opt out)?

2. Nola is catching every game (and showing good defense / bat) … no sign or hint of Alfaro / Campusano getting time (or AB). With the expected ARB for Alfaro (and a poor second half) this could signal the end of Alfaro plus may not have an add of a front line catcher on the priority list. (Maybe add a veteran at league minimum if Campusano is out of the mix).

3. Melvin’s mix and match at 1B/DH with Myers, Drury, and Bell is not showing confidence in any of the three. Myers is still getting time I expect for his defense at 1B (Melvin clearly prefers plus defense) … suggesting no confidence in Drury / Bell defense. None are hitting in the playoffs. Given what they may demand in FA, maybe Preller goes a completely different direction.

Side: Myers, Bell, and Drury seem out matched by quality playoff pitching … maybe make hay from lesser pitchers in the regular season … and playoffs are a small sample size … but their performance is not improving their cases for being resigned.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 15, 2022, 10:02 am

https://youtu.be/thrygel4xzs

 

Look at that Hat ..already used to the SD..

Senga by the way..lol forgot to post who it was

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2022, 11:08 am

MLBTR had a piece on Shintaro Fujinami being posted out of Japan … interesting back story on this 28 year old RHP who stand 6’6” and 230 pounds. He hit 100 MPH on the FB and has a plus slider. So far so good.

When he came out of HS 10 years ago he was considered in the same vein as Otani but he when directly to the Japan ML … and was immediately successful (2nd in ROY vote) then proceeded to be a dominate SP for the next 5 years.

Then, and NOT due to injury, he lost his control which had been better than league average and started walking more and hitting more batters (we are talking some real wild pitches). Then in an infamous game he was getting bombed but his major left him in for 168 pitches. Since that period, the one time dominate SP, was up and down to the Japan minor leagues and moved to the pen … not back to his early years dominance but not “ugly” yet still control is an issue.

Turning this to the Padres who have had success out of Japan with Suarez, Martinez, and Johnson (good scouting?) … do the Padres take a shot at this guy as a 100 MPH RP? Some think the change of organizations and maybe some new coaching to address whatever happened to his command mechanics … apparently no injury concerns.

He is being posted … so a fee to his current team is part of the deal but no idea teams that may be interested in MLB and the type of contract for a long shot reclamation project.

With Darvish around and Suarez/Martinez having ties to the Japanese league might make his transition easier. Side: he worked out with Senga before the 2022 season … maybe a package deal?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 15, 2022, 12:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2022, 11:08 am

MLBTR had a piece on Shintaro Fujinami being posted out of Japan … interesting back story on this 28 year old RHP who stand 6’6” and 230 pounds. He hit 100 MPH on the FB and has a plus slider. So far so good.

When he came out of HS 10 years ago he was considered in the same vein as Otani but he when directly to the Japan ML … and was immediately successful (2nd in ROY vote) then proceeded to be a dominate SP for the next 5 years.

Then, and NOT due to injury, he lost his control which had been better than league average and started walking more and hitting more batters (we are talking some real wild pitches). Then in an infamous game he was getting bombed but his major left him in for 168 pitches. Since that period, the one time dominate SP, was up and down to the Japan minor leagues and moved to the pen … not back to his early years dominance but not “ugly” yet still control is an issue.

Turning this to the Padres who have had success out of Japan with Suarez, Martinez, and Johnson (good scouting?) … do the Padres take a shot at this guy as a 100 MPH RP? Some think the change of organizations and maybe some new coaching to address whatever happened to his command mechanics … apparently no injury concerns.

He is being posted … so a fee to his current team is part of the deal but no idea teams that may be interested in MLB and the type of contract for a long shot reclamation project.

With Darvish around and Suarez/Martinez having ties to the Japanese league might make his transition easier. Side: he worked out with Senga before the 2020 season … maybe a package deal?

 

Just found out Both Martinez and Suarez played with Senga..didn't tie that together..

Quote from BoosterSD on October 18, 2022, 2:19 pm

ART (after the return of Tatis) we should be fairly set in LF, CF - Grish, and RF in Soto. Machado, Kim, Crone take care of 3B, SS, and 2B, and some combination of Nola/Alfaro/Campusano should be able to handle C duties. Profar, should he return should be able to provide fielding rest at multiple positions as the super sub. Leaving 1B as our big hole.

I read on MLBTR that MIN might be looking for help at C, someone that handle RHP. I know that Alfaro only has one more year of control, and Campusano is probably still a ? of being able to handle ML pitching. Wondering if Alfaro, and maybe a bullpen arm would be enough to get Aaron Sabato from MIN. He seems to be 1B, probably similar to Voit, with maybe some better OBP ability. Maybe a platoon of Sabato and Profar at 1B? Or would we better to send Campusano, for a better 1B prospect, if available?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 19, 2022, 9:41 am

Note to self RIZZO full circle 1B 2023...

Will comment further in 2 weeks after WS..

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 19, 2022, 11:56 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 19, 2022, 9:41 am

Note to self RIZZO full circle 1B 2023...

Will comment further in 2 weeks after WS..

Rizzo is one that the shift ban will really help.

But I don't see the Yanks letting him go...especially if they don't sign Judge.

That short RF porch is also perfect for him.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2022, 2:04 pm

He is still only 33 coming off a very good season making $16MM (basically the same as the previous two seasons) without a lot of other top flight 1B/DH on the FA market.

I would expect a salary in that same range on a multi-year deal. Agree the NYY will push hard to keep the contract level high.

Not sure I would put 1B as the priority for the major money spending when maybe more needed is SP for the bigger money and lower money for the additional bats.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2022, 4:46 am

Maybe before focusing on new adds … Padres may want to focus on locking down some of their current players that were instrumental in the 2022 success.

Martinez, Suarez, and Profar all have been better than expected (at least by me) and all have opt out clauses … that now seems likely that they exercise. MLBTR seems to think Profar can do better than his 2023 net $6.5MM if he stays. Suarez and Martinez … as very effective RP … will be on demand as FA. Hopefully the Padres have some advantage in re-signing them at a fair price rather than trying to replace them out of the FA market at a more expensive price tag.

Out of the Padre FA … there will be some focus on Bell, Drury, Myers, Clevinger, and Manaea but don’t forget Johnson who missed a big chunk of the season but last year he showed to be very effective set-up man (and what could be a bargain price).

Always a difficult call on retaining current players that contributed to a successful playoff season vs going out on the market to (in theory) find better players (at a better price … if they can actually sign them) to replace them.

We see all the “warts” in our current players and usually under evaluate the “warts” in the FA.