Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:24 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2023, 10:09 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 9:46 am

Could NYY San Diego be a good match for Kim or Grish

Kim + Reynolds to NYY

Dominguez + JTB + Pereira to SD

 

I would think that NYY would prefer Grisham to Kim, and Reynolds to Grisham. However, rumors I have heard is that NYY is unwilling to pay the price for Reynolds. So they would "settle" for Grisham, have seen those thoughts elsewhere, not sure what NYY would be willing to give up for Grisham. Plus, Grisham would give them back up for a possible departure of Bader, FA after this season.

We might be able to go Grisham to NYY. SD gets Schmidt and Jones OF prospect in A+ ball.

Probably pretty close to a match ... if SD likes Schmidt but probably would angle for Pereira as the OF prospect since he actually could impact 2023 and be in the mix of players to get corner OF time.

Just stay away from Hicks ... bad signing by NYY.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:27 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/

 

These projections for Jay Groome make me say..Don't trade too much for Pablo Lopez.. 120 IP of 4.15 ball..yes please

Also Kim 3.4 WAR and Grish 3.4 WAR.. dont give these guys away AJP..

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:12 am

It appears the SP MIA is more interested in moving is Lopez ($8.5MM / 2 years control) ... keeping all the low cost / long control options unless overwhelmed in an offer (or one of the lesser options is moved).

That would be "tricky" for SD if only Grisham went in return and the $6MM difference puts the Padres at the next threshold. IF MIA is trying to lower payroll ... not going to take much in salary back. Not forced to deal Lopez ... and other options exist beyond the Padres. Plus MIA want ML help not prospects at this point.

I will assume that Grisham is the only trade chip that interests MIA ... and that is not enough to get either Lopez, Luzardo, or Cabrera ... would Preller "gamble" on adding Rogers (a rebound candidate) and Garrett (a quality prospect)? Both fit the low cost / long control profile and both could benefit 2023.

Is that "potential" a good gamble for 2023 and beyond vs. the gamble that the mass of remaining position players can cover that open OF slot? Guess that depends on the scouting / projection on Rogers / Garrett.

Pomz = $$ and Need (BP) + Grish = CF  upgrade + throw in Castillo as BP insurance in case Pomz breaks down and as another BP upgrade arm for the fish and Rosales (who is a nice 50 grade spec no matter if everyone here shits on him) and get Lopez to SD

The premise is MIA would want to move Lopez to reduce payroll ... taking a $10MM gamble on Pomeranz does not fit that premise. Not sure MIA really needs RP all that much so giving them two major injury risks is not going to sway them.

If I am Preller, I am pushing for one of the other SP options ... he is holding on maybe the only legit CF option on the market if you consider Reynolds way out of price range in terms of prospects / salary and does not seem any traction on Taylor from anyone.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:12 am

It appears the SP MIA is more interested in moving is Lopez ($8.5MM / 2 years control) ... keeping all the low cost / long control options unless overwhelmed in an offer (or one of the lesser options is moved).

That would be "tricky" for SD if only Grisham went in return and the $6MM difference puts the Padres at the next threshold. IF MIA is trying to lower payroll ... not going to take much in salary back. Not forced to deal Lopez ... and other options exist beyond the Padres. Plus MIA want ML help not prospects at this point.

I will assume that Grisham is the only trade chip that interests MIA ... and that is not enough to get either Lopez, Luzardo, or Cabrera ... would Preller "gamble" on adding Rogers (a rebound candidate) and Garrett (a quality prospect)? Both fit the low cost / long control profile and both could benefit 2023.

Is that "potential" a good gamble for 2023 and beyond vs. the gamble that the mass of remaining position players can cover that open OF slot? Guess that depends on the scouting / projection on Rogers / Garrett.

Pomz = $$ and Need (BP) + Grish = CF  upgrade + throw in Castillo as BP insurance in case Pomz breaks down and as another BP upgrade arm for the fish and Rosales (who is a nice 50 grade spec no matter if everyone here shits on him) and get Lopez to SD

The premise is MIA would want to move Lopez to reduce payroll ... taking a $10MM gamble on Pomeranz does not fit that premise. Not sure MIA really needs RP all that much so giving them two major injury risks is not going to sway them.

If I am Preller, I am pushing for one of the other SP options ... he is holding on maybe the only legit CF option on the market if you consider Reynolds way out of price range in terms of prospects / salary and does not seem any traction on Taylor from anyone.

I dont think Miami wants to move Pablo because he is making $8,5 in 2023 and will make more in 2024..dont think payroll is more than 20% of their concern..especially for 2023.. swaping $8,5 contracts with Pomz expiring after 2023.. I dont think is even a negative to Fish..I think they are thinking down the line 2024 (jump to $11ish)..and then FA... why they view him as the guy to move..all their other guys are locked up (Alcantara) or controlled for very long periods.. I think this is why they are willing to move Lopez..very little to do with $8.5mil in 2023..hell they added Segura at good $$..if cutting payroll was an issue they wouldn't have... just saying..

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:52 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:19 am

How do the projections for Groome/Avila compare to the projections for Rogers/Garrett???

Just asking cause if similar then Lopez is the better fit..

Well scouts need to weigh in but Rogers in 2021 in the ML had a sub-4 ERA and was an All-Star and #2 in ROY as I recall ... BUT fell apart in 2022. So apparent HAD elite stuff ... then didn't. Garrett actually pitched well in the ML last season (sub 4 ERA) but seems to be the odd man out in the pecking order in MIA. Not sure his stuff is mid-rotation level but just don't know.

Groome is probably in the Garrett bracket but with no ML time and Avila is more a fringe option I would think.

Need a lot of quality for SP coming in 2024 so Rogers / Garrett are decent gambles (if the scouts agree). Not so sure for 2023 if the Padres really want a reliable #4 in the mix. Either one has shown enough that they COULD fit that role or maybe just flounder for the #6 role.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2023, 10:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:24 am

Probably pretty close to a match ... if SD likes Schmidt but probably would angle for Pereira as the OF prospect since he actually could impact 2023 and be in the mix of players to get corner OF time.

Just stay away from Hicks ... bad signing by NYY.

Just dont see how trading Grisham for another OFer helps the SP needs, both this season and moving forward in 2024. Schmidt should be able to step in right away to the SP both in 23 and longer.

I was thinking Hicks for Pomeranz would be OK, but then looked at the age of Hicks, he is 33 so probably not a lot of potential for a bounce back.

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:56 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 10, 2023, 10:12 am

It appears the SP MIA is more interested in moving is Lopez ($8.5MM / 2 years control) ... keeping all the low cost / long control options unless overwhelmed in an offer (or one of the lesser options is moved).

That would be "tricky" for SD if only Grisham went in return and the $6MM difference puts the Padres at the next threshold. IF MIA is trying to lower payroll ... not going to take much in salary back. Not forced to deal Lopez ... and other options exist beyond the Padres. Plus MIA want ML help not prospects at this point.

I will assume that Grisham is the only trade chip that interests MIA ... and that is not enough to get either Lopez, Luzardo, or Cabrera ... would Preller "gamble" on adding Rogers (a rebound candidate) and Garrett (a quality prospect)? Both fit the low cost / long control profile and both could benefit 2023.

Is that "potential" a good gamble for 2023 and beyond vs. the gamble that the mass of remaining position players can cover that open OF slot? Guess that depends on the scouting / projection on Rogers / Garrett.

Pomz = $$ and Need (BP) + Grish = CF  upgrade + throw in Castillo as BP insurance in case Pomz breaks down and as another BP upgrade arm for the fish and Rosales (who is a nice 50 grade spec no matter if everyone here shits on him) and get Lopez to SD

The premise is MIA would want to move Lopez to reduce payroll ... taking a $10MM gamble on Pomeranz does not fit that premise. Not sure MIA really needs RP all that much so giving them two major injury risks is not going to sway them.

If I am Preller, I am pushing for one of the other SP options ... he is holding on maybe the only legit CF option on the market if you consider Reynolds way out of price range in terms of prospects / salary and does not seem any traction on Taylor from anyone.

I dont think Miami wants to move Pablo because he is making $8,5 in 2023 and will make more in 2024..dont think payroll is more than 20% of their concern..especially for 2023.. swaping $8,5 contracts with Pomz expiring after 2023.. I dont think is even a negative to Fish..I think they are thinking down the line 2024 (jump to $11ish)..and then FA... why they view him as the guy to move..all their other guys are locked up (Alcantara) or controlled for very long periods.. I think this is why they are willing to move Lopez..very little to do with $8.5mil in 2023..hell they added Segura at good $$..if cutting payroll was an issue they wouldn't have... just saying..

It is still total payroll management and adding Segura may be pushing them their budget ... just don't know. However, adding $10MM for an injury risk they really don't need just to help the Padres makes little sense for MIA.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:57 am

Would Manny take a 12/350 in essence lowering his AAV to $25..could front loaded at 35 for 1st 7 yrs or so.. but for tax purposes only counting $25per? Thus helping the team now and in the future??

Quote from BoosterSD on January 10, 2023, 11:30 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 10, 2023, 10:57 am

Would Manny take a 12/350 in essence lowering his AAV to $25..could front loaded at 35 for 1st 7 yrs or so.. but for tax purposes only counting $25per? Thus helping the team now and in the future??

How does 350/12 come to 25 per season??