Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 12:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2023, 11:16 am

OK, I am going to stir the pot again. Knowing two things, one we need some inexpensive, controllable SP, and two, I know most of you dont want to trade Kim or Grisham.

So 4 trades to make you all upset and unhappy.

Trade #1 - SD gets Elder, Shoemaker, and Conley from ATL. ATL gets Kim. Elder is ML ready and under control until 2028.

Trade #2 - SD gets Seth Brown. OAK gets Zavala, Kerr, and Waldron. Brown is under control until 2026.

Trade #3 - SD gets Luzardo. MIA gets Grisham, Crismatt, Groome, and Williams. Luzardo is under control until 2026.

Trade #4 - SD gets Taylor. KC gets Rosario.

Brown plays 1B, Crone stays at 2B, Carpenter/Azocar cover LF until the return of Tatis. Then the OF alignment switches to Soto in LF, Taylor in CF, and Tatis in RF. After Tatis return, batting order goes,

Tatis, Carpenter - DH, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, Brown, Nola, Crone, Taylor.

Rotation of Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Luzardo, Elder, Martinez/Lugo battle out for #6 in ST, loser goes to the bull pen.

SD saves about $6M± available to deploy towards deadline deals.

I'll say 0 for 4.

Trade #1: Given his 2022 WAR and economical contract for a upper end SS ... Kim is worth a lot more than proposed return. Atlanta would have to lead with Ian Anderson and a second piece of either Elder or Schuster (Padres choice) ... maybe Padres throw in Crismatt to seal the deal. Still think ATL says no valuing the SP more than their need for a SS upgrade.

Trade #2: Don't get the love for Seth Brown who at 30 had a good post-All Star run in 2022 but nothing before that. Power yes, but lousy OBP. Limited defensively. Never would give up a prime prospect and OAK would not expect that ... Zavala is way too elite to even be considered. However, if for some reason the Padres wanted him ... maybe Weathers straight up and maybe add Howell if needed.

Trade #3: Not enough to get Luzardo from MIA ... they may take Grisham but Padres would have to offer stronger complementary pieces ... and still likely out bid by another team who would offer more ML ready talent offensively.

Trade #4: KC could get a better deal from MIA ... not sure if Rosario has much trade value on his own.

==========

Padres are thinking they are contenders and are not trading Kim ... a SS with a 3-4 WAR and elite defense without getting an impact player in return who will deliver similar productivity in 2023. So, if a team is out there with that kind of SP on the market (and need a SS) ... Kim is in play. Anything less and Kim is the Padres' 2B.

Also, really doubt they deal Zavala (or any prime prospect) unless in a deal for an established MAJOR talent ... not in deals for filler players.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2023, 12:32 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2023, 12:12 pm

Just a "for the hell of it" conversation.

I'm asking this because the "trade Tatis' gossip is still out there.

NYY gets Taits. SD gets ML Peraza - SS/2B/COF, and MiL Volpe (#1)- AAA SS, Dominguez (#2)- AA OF, Warren (#8) - AA RHP, Beeter (#9) - AA RHP.

(#) marks MLB.com NYY prospect ranks.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 3, 2023, 12:36 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2023, 12:12 pm

Just a "for the hell of it" conversation.

IF we can't keep all four of Manny/Soto/Tatis/Xander and have to let one go....which one and why?

Obviously Bogaerts is here for awhile now.

I'm asking this because the "trade Tatis' gossip is still out there.

While his value is at a low atm because he hasn't played in over a year and has had multiple surgeries he is obviously worth a TON in trade.

I want to go on record as saying I hope he is a Padre for life and gets his statue at Petco......however.

Due to Mannys contract and Soto being a free agent in 2 years Tatis is really the only one we would consider trading(despite how absurd that sounds).

At first I was 100% against trading him...but just imagine the return and if that means keeping the other three then.......?

Again,IF we can't keep all three what is the other alternatives?

Trading Soto with 1 or even 1/2 a season left?

Letting Manny walk after this season?

Praying Seidler just says "F it" and extends Manny and Soto but if not...what's the best alternative in your mind?

 

 

 

If all 4 are extended/resigned for 10yrs + each as Padres.. BUT I had to trade one say in 2024..and all 4 had typical seasons for them with Tatis showing no rust and staying healthy say plays 130/142... I would trade Tatis..

Not Manny - he is our Captain

Not Xander - He is the best pure hitter of the 4

Not Soto - he is the OBP machine that makes the engine go

Why Tatis? - young and controlled for a decade + at his current salary (seems like a huge bargain) say he goes .275/.380/.550 with 40 HRs and 40 SB... we can get the mother of all mother hauls and I mean MLB proven young guys + MLB ready specs

For instance say NYY - Schdmit + Cabrera + Torres + Dominguez + Pereira and Volpe

We could flip Volpe for Luzardo ++ from fish...

Dominguez was compared to Bo Jackson early on his career..he gotten a little thicker with age but he still has + speed..just not ++ still handles CF well..and has big bat potential with huge power.. so could always slide to RF if Say Zavala is ++ CF

Torres has some nice offense and could be 1 and done in SD help ease some of the Bat we will miss from Tatis and could further be moved on..

Cabrera can be a Jack of all trades 1st off the bench utility Swiss knife..nothing great but very valuable to a contending team..

Pereira is also very good and perhaps allows us to move Grish before he hits FA and can be moved for a SP especially if he bounces back to a .725 OPS level with = D and perhaps 20 SB .. (close to 4.5 WAR with those #'s)..

Such a move (Trading Tatis) would be hugely unpopular BUT the return for a cheap (relatively speaking) All Star coming off a big year..could turn the Padres into favorites in the NL at lowish fiscal levels for the foreseeable future...

Off course keeping all 4 and working around the $$ especially beyond 2025 as specs begin to arrive ..might be the best outcome for SD as well.. we get to cheer for our Fearsome 4 some while paying lots of attention to our prospects as they come up.. all I can say " In AJP and Siedler I thrust"

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 12:36 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2023, 12:12 pm

Just a "for the hell of it" conversation.

IF we can't keep all four of Manny/Soto/Tatis/Xander and have to let one go....which one and why?

Obviously Bogaerts is here for awhile now.

I'm asking this because the "trade Tatis' gossip is still out there.

While his value is at a low atm because he hasn't played in over a year and has had multiple surgeries he is obviously worth a TON in trade.

I want to go on record as saying I hope he is a Padre for life and gets his statue at Petco......however.

Due to Mannys contract and Soto being a free agent in 2 years Tatis is really the only one we would consider trading(despite how absurd that sounds).

At first I was 100% against trading him...but just imagine the return and if that means keeping the other three then.......?

Again,IF we can't keep all three what is the other alternatives?

Trading Soto with 1 or even 1/2 a season left?

Letting Manny walk after this season?

Praying Seidler just says "F it" and extends Manny and Soto but if not...what's the best alternative in your mind?

 

 

 

I was debating that too.

1 Not Bogaerts (in the near term) since just signed (no idea if he has a no trade) but as a middle INF holds more usefulness for the intermediate term with the life span of Kim and Croney is shortening.

2. Not Tatis (even if he would waive his no trade) ... market value has to be at a real low given the injury / suspension ... with that "uncertainty" his huge / long contract will not appeal to probably any team. Only a few teams would have the resources so not talking about a lot of trade candidates. My guess IF any team was interested the would demand the Padres eat a big part of the contract ... and that defeats the point.

3. Machado case is more in Machado's control after the season ... first shoe to drop. Padres will try to extend him but there will be a limit and in reality Machado may prefer to play for another team. Just don't know.

4. Trade Soto based on what I have seen in conjunction with his contract demand (re: Boras). When? sort of depends on how the Padres do in 2023 and their view of 2024 (see SP). Also, just a possibility to let him walk in FA with a QO if 2024 is still financially sound and the Padres are really contenders.

As you can tell ... Soto has not won my heart.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2023, 12:55 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 12:20 pm

Trade #1: Given his 2022 WAR and economical contract for a upper end SS ... Kim is worth a lot more than proposed return. Atlanta would have to lead with Ian Anderson and a second piece of either Elder or Schuster (Padres choice) ... maybe Padres throw in Crismatt to seal the deal. Still think ATL says no valuing the SP more than their need for a SS upgrade.

Trade #2: Don't get the love for Seth Brown who at 30 had a good post-All Star run in 2022 but nothing before that. Power yes, but lousy OBP. Limited defensively. Never would give up a prime prospect and OAK would not expect that ... Zavala is way too elite to even be considered. However, if for some reason the Padres wanted him ... maybe Weathers straight up and maybe add Howell if needed.

Trade #3: Not enough to get Luzardo from MIA ... they may take Grisham but Padres would have to offer stronger complementary pieces ... and still likely out bid by another team who would offer more ML ready talent offensively.

Trade #4: KC could get a better deal from MIA ... not sure if Rosario has much trade value on his own.

 

Of course probably flawed, I ran all these trades through that simulator, and all were deemed fair.

In response to trade #1. Elder had better numbers in MiL than Anderson according to WHIP, and has two more years of control. The simulator says that a trade of Kim/Crismatt for Anderson/Elder is a minor overpay for ATL, but they rank Kim as a 2B, so I would say that your counter proposal is fair and accepted.

In response to trade #2. Brown is what SD needs. LHH power that can play LF and 1B, and cheap and controllable. SD has plenty of OBP, some cheap power would be nice. You and the simulator differ on the value of Brown probably the 25 HRs. So if OAK would take that trade, I would do that counter offer as well.

In response to trade #3 and #4. I think MIA would prefer Grisham over Taylor for the salary (Taylor about $2M more than Grisham) and the power from the left side of the plate. So I would counter SD gets Luzardo and Berti. MIA gets Grisham, Snelling, Rosario, and Groome. Then modify the trade to KC for Taylor. Taylor for Weathers.

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 1:21 pm

Just to interject some more thought on the "difficulty" of finding a trade partner after the 2023 season for Tatis.

First, and maybe the biggest issue, is he will have 11 years / $$327MM left on his contract. That is still a major contract that only a very few teams would even consider.

Second, even with a strong 2023, given his injury history (only made more of a concern with the wrist) and the PED the evaluation of his risk to be available over the term of the contract diminishes his value.

Third, Tatis has full no-trade, and IF the Padres found a trade partner ... may not be a team / city Tatis accepts (see Hosmer).

Fourth, I think that even if Tatis was on the FA market, he would be challenged to get want is remaining on his current deal. So, unlikely  any team would take that contract AND give any real talent in return. Just wait for the next best thing as a FA ...

So, IF they really wanted to deal Tatis (and his contract) ... probably for a nondescript return if they could find a partner. No upside in dealing Tatis and eating a big chunk of his salary just to get some unproven prospects. So, the best route is to hold onto Tatis for a few years and hopefully he can really build so value with a return to his performance levels and STAYS HEALTHY.

Padres are in a situation where IF Tatis proves to be worth his contract .... do the Padres want to trade him but IF Tatis slumps / injured again does any team want him and his contract?

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2023, 1:28 pm

It won't take "a few years" for Tatis to rebuild his trade value.

He just turned 24 and if he plays this season and stays healthy and puts up "Tatis numbers" his value will be back immediately.

He is a superstar and a draw.

Every team would want him if they could afford him....and they can.

I hate that we even after to contemplate this but until we know what the plan is with Manny and Soto we will be speculating if we can keep all four or not.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 1:48 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2023, 1:28 pm

It won't take "a few years" for Tatis to rebuild his trade value.

He just turned 24 and if he plays this season and stays healthy and puts up "Tatis numbers" his value will be back immediately.

He is a superstar and a draw.

Every team would want him if they could afford him....and they can.

I hate that we even after to contemplate this but until we know what the plan is with Manny and Soto we will be speculating if we can keep all four or not.

 

I agree that he can rebuild the justification for getting that large contract fairly quickly (if healthy) but not sure that translates into trade value. Basically his value is in his contract ... so giving up talent is pure overpay. Not many teams will want to go that route ... if they wanted spend that money, just harvest the FA market and keep the prospects. It would take a very specific set of conditions to get a trade partner.

I would move on from Tatis ... but just don't see a high probably of that setting up for a few years.

=======

I still will stick with moving on from Soto ... given his contract demands (AAV / length) ... not paying that for one of the worst defense OF to just get OBP predicated on taking walks. He will have to show some high leverage HITTING (SLG/RBI) to justify the money we wants.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2023, 2:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2023, 1:48 pm

 

I still will stick with moving on from Soto ... given his contract demands (AAV / length) ... not paying that for one of the worst defense OF to just get OBP predicated on taking walks. He will have to show some high leverage HITTING (SLG/RBI) to justify the money we wants.

Agree that 2023 will be an important season for Soto and his "value" in a new contract. I am a little more positive on Soto than you, so WHEN he bounces back this season, and IS the Soto that we traded for, it will be hard to not look at extending/signing as a FA, especially after the players given up to get him.

When we get his 2021 season this year, with a BA around .300, OBP around .430, and a SLG around .530 with 27 HRs and 90-100 RBIs we will see his true value.

Along with that WS trophy in SD!! 😉