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2023 offseason
#2781 · December 30, 2022, 11:09 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 10:57 amI would not under-estimate TO THE NYY the value of a Grisham as a LH power hitter in a line-up with only Rizzo as an impact LHH. Yankee stadium is built for LHH power. Would lose no defense v Bader. Three years control vs one year and lower cost (Bader is at over $5MM).
If the Yankees feel it is time for Schmidt to get his full time ML role … moving Montes at $7.7MM with one year control and their #5 SP also makes sense if it improves the rest of the team.
Part of the Padres thinking has to be Tatis going to CF so adding Cabrera goes to corner (not experienced CF). Yankees can afford dealing Cabrera if they have Judge - Bader - Grisham - Hicks - and a pretty good ML ready prospect. Have to deal with the risk of Tatis injury (and living with Azocar / Cabrera in CF) v the upgrade in SP probably keeping Morejon in the pen (or minors).
Still balancing the money is a challenge if NYY don’t want Pomeranz.
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Hypothetically, if Montes is out of the deal … a pretty balanced deal could be Grisham for Schmidt, Cabrera, and Pereira (#5 NYY prospect OF) … maybe some minor additional pieces (RP to NYY like Crismatt or Baez) … but money is less a problem and better for the future for the Padres with three players with 6 years control. A fair chance Schmidt could be as good as Montes in 2023.
Don't forget Howell (AA) May .920 June .922 at AA before getting injured..already a good/great CF defender and has good OBP skills.. he is very Grish like in many ways and has a lot better speed *maybe fastest in System.. sure he is green .. But if he continues his torrid OPS progress to start the year (or even in ST) I can see Azocar getting challenged in ST..Howell is also a good fielding SS and 2B .. so even if Tatis claims CF (Offensively and Defensively) Howell can be a very valuable up the middle utility piece..especially if Rosario and/or Kim move.... I am intrigued by this specs unique Defensive (position) skills and speed
#2782 · December 30, 2022, 11:23 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 11:07 amQuote from dusty on December 30, 2022, 11:01 amAnyone think the Padres are willing to sign Bauer at minimum? Potential PR nightmare but...at minimum considering dodgers expected to release him...Bauer would have a lot of motivation to come back and pitch at a high level and give a huge middle finger to everyone that doubts him and especially the Dodgers. Wouldn't break the bank obviously BUT big time baggage
Below zero % chance with Seidler as the owner.
At best I could see a better chance of this like 10% if say the Reds sign him ..he proves he still has it and SD or others make a push at the deadline ..pending Bauer being a model citizen til then..still low probability but a little better odds vs now..
Just aming at potential deadline SP ..Othani and Gray a top of my list with LAA maybe contending and Twins maybe falling behind Sox /Guardians ..early and often perhaps Gray would be the one available then...
I think we have enough SP to get us to the deadline even with a 2 month injury type situation.. I can see AJP picking up a SP >Poppen..perhaps >Groome+ Company.. as rosters get tight and folks get DFAd.. and a guy like Zach Davies signs a deal similar to Teheran (split) with an invite to ST ..I dont know why Davies got so little $$ last offseason (maybe Domestic issue) but he is kind of the ideal #4/5SP..healthy + eats innings at around 4.00 or below..last time in SD he pitched like a #2
#2783 · December 30, 2022, 11:37 am
Chickenshit way of reporting it from whatever sources Heyman has. Pawning the reasoning off on a few players for not liking Bauer. That’s garbage. https://t.co/Rv3ZycXTDV
— rich (@rich_roberts) December 30, 2022
LAD using its own players as the justification to release Bauer is a bad look
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#2784 · December 30, 2022, 11:47 am
Still like my trade of SDP #5 Eguy Rosario for Dbacks #12 OF Dominic Fletcher (David's younger bro)..
They need better options IF and we need more ready to contribute OF..
Castillo hitting arb 2 .. maybe should be traded save us $1.5+ mil.. proj ..
Pads MLB or MLB ready assets
1. Kim*
2. Grish*
3. Pomz
4. Rosario
5. Campy*
6. Garcia
7. Castillo
8. Morejon (for the right SP upgrade)
9. Wilson (but only in a huge trade I love the control and the stuff)
Not much else (Maybe Crone BUT?? Would have to be for a Reynolds type bat++)
* some of these may require at least a backup option so as to not create more holes/lack of depth
#2785 · December 30, 2022, 12:00 pm
Like speculating on potential next moves but really don’t think the Padres need to make any major move. I (and a number of others) see this roster being good enough to unseat LAD in the NL West and one “predictor” had the Padres at 100 wins and a 1st round bye.
For now tinker on the fringe to upgrade the bench and save the ammo for a targeted trade deadline move.
Offense with Soto, Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts providing an elite four … then the rest don’t need to carry the team … and collectively they are about “average” offensively, so no real hole going through #9. (Do think Grisham will have a better average but he does deliver LHH power). So, the defensive quality provided from Grisham and Kim is arguably more valuable than any incremental offense gain in a trade.
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#2786 · December 30, 2022, 12:18 pm
Doubt this has any takers but it would make some sense for the Padres:
Trade Pomeranz (and his contract) for a PTNL basically save $10MM salary / $8,5MM AAV. Use one of Morejon, Lopez, Castillo, Cosgrove as the 3rd LHRP. If necessary add Rosario (or a Baez level RP) to Pomeranz to soften the money hit on the buyer.
With the extra payroll space sign either Cueto (SP support) or Profar (super utility 10th man).
Sort of the Padres on the flip side of the trade that returned Headley because Preller wanted Mitchell (?). So, the idea works.
Padres overall should be better while staying basically in the same place financially.
#2787 · December 30, 2022, 12:22 pm
Padres started the 2022 season hot even without Tatis and a much less talented line-up. They won consistently with outstanding defense, very good pitching, timely hitting and a little bit of luck. I think the 2023 schedule lines up much the same in the early months with the only tough stretches on the road in Atlanta and New York in April; it gets tougher in May with 2 series against the Dodgers and playing the Yankees in New York in a middle of a long road trip. However, we should be in decent shape win % wise when Tatis returns to the everyday line-up and we'll know a lot about the state of our pitching, both SP and RP, and the strength (weakness) of our bench by then. That could prompt some movement from what we envision the current 40-man roster/26 man on-field team to be.
Until that time, I don't expect any major outlays but rather those kind of deals like Teheran and Severino signed. I think most people on the board agree but it is fun to speculate and play "outguess Preller" - a truly challenging exercise!
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#2788 · December 30, 2022, 12:27 pm
I will go back to the idea of just moving on from Campy as a catcher and convert him to a 1B/DH … hitting has always been his calling card … and apparently not any takers for him in a trade (says a lot about how others think of him as a catcher).
Severino can step in as the back-up catcher with good defense and ML experience … important for a contender. Campy provides a RHH option to spell Carpenter or Cronenworth.
Low cost … long control … not much offensively coming near term in system. He is only 24 so a lot of upside remains in his bat. Padres need those internal low cost / long control options to succeed.
#2789 · December 30, 2022, 1:20 pm
As we are on 12/30/22.. our lineup 4/20/23
1. Tatis RF
2. Soto LF
3. Manny 3B
4. Xander SS
5. Crone zone 1B
6. Carpenter DH
7. Nola C
8. Kim 2B
9. Grish CF
SP Lugo (assuming 5 SP 20th start to start yr )
On 4/20/22 this was our lineup ..we won 6-0 vs Reds...
1. GRISH CF
2. Manny DH
3. Crone 2B
4. Hosmer 1B
5. Profar LF
6. Myers RF
7. Alfaro C
8 CJ Abrams SS
9. HS Kim 3B
SP Gore 5 IP
Wilson 1 IP
Johnson 1 IP
Garcia 1 IP
Lamet 1 IP
I mean these guys had us 1 1/2 games behind LAD with the 3rd best record in baseball on 6/23... and we have What Now?.. WOW!
#2790 · December 30, 2022, 1:28 pm
For fun looking at a crystal ball 4/20/25..after locking up Soto..
1. Tatis RF
2. Soto LF
3. Manny 3B
4. Xander SS
5. Merrill 2B (pre arb)
6. Doersching DH (pre arb)
7. Dixon 1B (arb 1)
8. Nola C ($4.5 mil)
9. Zavala CF (pre arb rookie)
#5 SP J. Wolf (pre arb Soph)
Still a lot better than NLDS team had in 2022 on 4/20/22...