Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 30, 2022, 9:02 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2022, 7:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2022, 6:06 pm

Noted in the Dennis Lin piece on the potential of Kim and Grisham being traded the comment that Campusano is not drawing any interest from other teams … considering he is a Top 100 prospect with two years in AAA as a catcher who can hit … have to really wonder about his future as a catcher … and when the Padres will go a different way with him.

Expanding on this, and a piece on MLBTR this morning. They suggest NYY as a potential trade partner for Grisham as well. They suggested as a return for Grisham could be Montas (who struggled in NY, but had a 1.137 WHIP in OAK prior to the trade to NYY) and then either Gleyber Torres or Oswaldo Cabrera. Then Fenn, you mentioned Schmidt as a target you were interested in as well.

I wonder if we could send Grisham and Pomeranz to NYY for Montas, Schmidt, and Cabrera. This saves SD about $5M this season. Plus, Montas gives us 1 year of high end SP, Schmidt gives us a SP going forward, and Cabrera could replace Kim. And then Kim could be used to get us another young controllable arm, Anderson in ATL. Again, helping to solve the rotation issues that will present itself in 2024. And moving Kim saves SD about $14M over the next two seasons, and that money can go towards resigning Darvish and/or Snell.

I know many on here are not a fan of the idea of trading Kim, and I get that for sure, but he is one of our more valuable trade pieces and may help SD more via a trade than playing 2B for SD.

I'd be all over that NYY deal.. Grish + Pomz for Cabrera (prefer his versatility and OBP skills) + Montas and Schdmidt...Schdmit would be our 13th RP and/or 6th SP..Montas #4.. and Martinez 5th... Schdmidt/Lugo and the group from AAA + Tegeran offer more comp which is a good problem and push for starts/Relief innings on that Taxi squad...AAA to MLB...

Looking at our upcoming arb P.. Morejon/CASTILLO/CRISTMATT... could see AJP trading some of these guys as their raise is currently worth more $$ with penalties.. if we can get a 4th OF pre arb type... or a solid Spec/s in the upper minors as well as Intl bonus $$$ (perhaps for 24 ..or a comp pick 2024 draft a +)

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2022, 9:13 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 30, 2022, 8:58 am

What's the deal with Torres? He was a superstar on the brink 2 years ago- now the Yankees want rid of him? What gives?

He is starting to get expensive, close to $10M in arbitration this season, and his defense is sliding for SS, and two of NYY top 3 prospects are SS, so they can replace him for league minimum. Plus they also have DJ LeMahieu that can also play 2B, and is a better bat than Torres.

Makes Torres expendable.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 9:54 am

I can see where NYY would like a LHH gold glove CF in Yankee stadium with a large CF and a friendly RF for LH power hitters. His HR totals should be elevated. Plus even with no change Grisham was a 2.1 WAR and is low cost $2.8MMis with 3 more control years.

I understand their willingness to move Torres at $9.9MM and 2 years control but not a fit position wise or cost wise for the Padres.

A "simple" trade could be Grisham for Montes ($7.7MM ... 1 year control ... 2.0 WAR ... with 4.05 ERA but a much better history with OAK) ... AND ... Cabrera (league minimum for the OF to replace Grisham ...6 years control ... 1.5 WAR ... 111 wRC+ ... plus defense ... switch hitter). Note that Cabrera was not that good a hitter in his time  in the minors so probably should not give his 2022 all that much weight.

However, if the players match reasonably the Padres would be picking-up about $5MM in AAV and sit at the edge for the next tier leaving no room for even a small enhancement at the deadline.

So, maybe more complex ... NYY eat some money? guessing the plan is on Schmidt replacing Montes so he is out of a deal. Maybe instead of eating money they do take the injury risk in Pomeranz ... $10MM in salary to NYY but AAV drop to SD $8.5MM would keep SD about $6MM away from the next tier.

Easier to juggle player for player options but the reality of CBT penalty cost for the #2 and #3 teams in CBT payroll makes balancing the dollars in play on both sides. Especially since we are really talking about support options, not top line impact players.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 30, 2022, 10:02 am

I read that MLBTR blurb too. I don't really see the Yankees as a fit for Grisham. They already have an elite glove with a questionable bat in CF in Bader. Grisham is much less valuable defensively in a corner. That would put even more pressure on an offensive bounce back. I think they'll be looking for a more dependable option if they make a move.

There is also no way I see them giving up that package if they were to make a move. That would be giving up on Montas awfully quickly after they surrendered a nice package of prospects to get him. It would also create a hole in their rotation while removing possibly the best option to fill it. Severino is a serious injury risk. I can't see them moving both Montas and Schmidt in a deal. Then you have Cabrera in the deal coming off a successful rookie season and likely in line to start in LF. He might be greater or equal in value to Grisham for the Yankees on his own.

I know the basis of the deal came from MLBTR, but for the Yankees to give that up for Grisham while also taking Pomeranz seems very unlikely to me.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2022, 10:08 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 9:54 am

A "simple" trade could be Grisham for Montes ($7.7MM ... 1 year control ... 2.0 WAR ... with 4.05 ERA but a much better history with OAK) ... AND ... Cabrera (league minimum for the OF to replace Grisham ...6 years control ... 1.5 WAR ... 111 wRC+ ... plus defense ... switch hitter). Note that Cabrera was not that good a hitter in time minors so probably should not give his 2022 all that much weight.

1st, I dont make this trade unless I am shipping Pomeranz to NYY for the money savings. Dont see Pomeranz as that important to the 2023 RP for SD. And Pomeranz helps offset the money for Montas. Both have 1 year left.

2nd, I dont see Cabrera as a replacement for Grisham in the OF, as he really only played the OF in 2022 in NYY, and I dont think he can play CF. He came up as INF, mainly 2B and SS. His OPS+ was slightly better than Kim's 2022 season, and a lot better than Kims 2021, and a lot cheaper than Kim. IF SD was to get Cabrera, I see a Kim trade for a young, controllable SP, to follow close. And saving money again.

Still would need to find a CFer to replace Grisham in my mind. So I would think that a Grisham trade leads to Kim being traded, and SD trading for Taylor, who is similar defensively to Grisham, and had a better year at the plate BA and OBP wise, and did hit 9 HRs last season as well. I would think that we could get Taylor for Rosario.

Otherwise, I dont see the point of weakening SD defense, by losing Grisham and not netting a long term SP in some way.

And either way SD goes, they still need one more COF to start the season, dont have a lot of faith in Dahl at the moment, and dont want to rely on Azocars bat for the first 20+ games either.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 30, 2022, 10:13 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 30, 2022, 10:02 am

I know the basis of the deal came from MLBTR, but for the Yankees to give that up for Grisham while also taking Pomeranz seems very unlikely to me.

I get everything that you say in your post, and it all makes sense. Three counter points though.

1. Bader is a FA after this season, meaning that Grisham would slide to CF if Bader leaves.
2. NYY love LHH players, especially with the short porch in RF, and Grisham with his pull power would do very well in Yankee stadium, providing he can handle the city. Which seems to be the problem with Montas, and why NYY might be willing to move on from him. See Sonny Gray as an example.
3. NYY still has Aaron Hicks under a contract as well, plus their two stud middle INF coming up, making Cabrera expendable for the right piece.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 10:57 am

I would not under-estimate TO THE NYY the value of a Grisham as a LH power hitter in a line-up with only Rizzo as an impact LHH. Yankee stadium is built for LHH power. Would lose no defense v Bader. Three years control vs one year and lower cost (Bader is at over $5MM).

If the Yankees feel it is time for Schmidt to get his full time ML role … moving Montes at $7.7MM with one year control and their #5 SP also makes sense if it improves the rest of the team.

Part of the Padres thinking has to be Tatis going to CF so adding Cabrera goes to corner (not experienced CF). Yankees can afford dealing Cabrera if they have Judge - Bader - Grisham - Hicks - and a pretty good ML ready prospect. Have to deal with the risk of Tatis injury (and living with Azocar / Cabrera in CF) v the upgrade in SP probably keeping Morejon in the pen (or minors).

Still balancing the money is a challenge if NYY don’t want Pomeranz.

============

Hypothetically, if Montes is out of the deal … a pretty balanced deal could be Grisham for Schmidt, Cabrera, and Pereira (#5 NYY prospect OF) … maybe some minor additional pieces (RP to NYY like Crismatt or Baez) … but money is less a problem and better for the future for the Padres with three players with 6 years control. A fair chance Schmidt could be as good as Montes in 2023.

Quote from dusty on December 30, 2022, 11:01 am

Anyone think the Padres are willing to sign Bauer at minimum? Potential PR nightmare but...at minimum considering dodgers expected to release him...Bauer would have a lot of motivation to come back and pitch at a high level and give a huge middle finger to everyone that doubts him and especially the Dodgers. Wouldn't break the bank obviously BUT big time baggage

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2022, 11:07 am

Quote from dusty on December 30, 2022, 11:01 am

Anyone think the Padres are willing to sign Bauer at minimum? Potential PR nightmare but...at minimum considering dodgers expected to release him...Bauer would have a lot of motivation to come back and pitch at a high level and give a huge middle finger to everyone that doubts him and especially the Dodgers. Wouldn't break the bank obviously BUT big time baggage

Below zero % chance with Seidler as the owner.