Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 29, 2022, 10:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2022, 9:10 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 29, 2022, 8:43 am

From Dennis Lin's latest on The Athletic on the possibility of trading Kim or Grisham.

Publicly, the Padres have downplayed the possibility. Speaking with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal last week, Preller acknowledged he had received inquiries on Grisham and Kim. “With the Bogaerts signing, our intention is to play this position group together,” Preller added. “We like the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.”

 

Industry sources, however, have indicated that San Diego is open to discussing either player — Grisham, in particular. The Marlins, flush with starting pitching, are one team that could make sense as a trade partner; the Padres have expressed interest in right-hander Pablo López and possibly others in the Miami rotation.

"Industry sources" ... "open to discussing" is pretty vague since Preller is always "open to discussing" the entire roster. Plus watching Preller he will be working deals until opening day.

As for a deal with MIA ... now that they have signed Segura for 2 years (Jazz to SS) ... likely they would seek some ML offense if they moved a SP ... not sure the Padres can fill that need (others probably could). They do want a CF so Grisham makes some sense but that would require Tatis to CF and open a major hole in a corner while still seeking that back-up OF. Not seeing it as a match.

Maybe those comments were just out of date v current situation.

 

I agree. It's hard to see Miami as a match if they want major league talent back and aren't interested in Grisham. There are rumors about Wendle and Rojas being on the block which could open a spot for Kim, but Lin's piece also made it sound like they would be much more hesitant to trade Kim due to his popularity in the clubhouse and relationship with Manny.

I think it's probably just a case of AJ checking in and doing his due diligence. Maybe starting a dialogue now pays off at some point down the line.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2022, 10:35 am

I'm fairly certain the Marlins signed Segura to play 2B for Jazz could move to SS.

I don't see any reason they would give up a controllable SP for a package around Kim.

I also think despite Grishams' defense they will want someone with more offense...which is what they are severely lacking.

So unless they are high on Campusano I don't think we line up well...which is why nothing has already happened.

Their signing of Segura was the final nail in this plan.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2022, 11:08 am

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

=================

Padres are in a pretty steep penalty zone to consider spending on fringe player / back-up. The next $6MM will effectively cost $9.72MM with the penalty. Note that Teheran (if he makes the roster) is ticketed for about $6MM ... not sure the commitment to Dahl if he makes the roster.

The 92% penalty for the over $173MM level is really a killer (along with dropping 10 in the draft). Basically paying double ... not worth it for any of the remaining FA plus to avoid that level the Padres need to leave that next $6MM on the table for strategic adds during the season / trade deadline.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2022, 11:44 am

https://twitter.com/TooMuchMortons_/status/1608548215397441536?t=WCPdeiZ6pfTTo6HfYhRTvg&s=19

Trent and Kim wayy too valuable to Padres to trade for anything else.. obviously a controllable pre-arb .to 1st arb SP type = as valuable assuming he is = or close in on field value to Grish or Kim

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 29, 2022, 11:49 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2022, 11:08 am

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

=================

Padres are in a pretty steep penalty zone to consider spending on fringe player / back-up. The next $6MM will effectively cost $9.72MM with the penalty. Note that Teheran (if he makes the roster) is ticketed for about $6MM ... not sure the commitment to Dahl if he makes the roster.

The 92% penalty for the over $173MM level is really a killer (along with dropping 10 in the draft). Basically paying double ... not worth it for any of the remaining FA plus to avoid that level the Padres need to leave that next $6MM on the table for strategic adds during the season / trade deadline.

So Cueto at $13 is really like Cueto at $23 after 62% on the 1st $6 and 95% on the next $7.. plus 10 slots ($700k+ roughly less total draft $$)

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2022, 12:35 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 29, 2022, 8:43 am

From Dennis Lin's latest on The Athletic on the possibility of trading Kim or Grisham.

Publicly, the Padres have downplayed the possibility. Speaking with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal last week, Preller acknowledged he had received inquiries on Grisham and Kim. “With the Bogaerts signing, our intention is to play this position group together,” Preller added. “We like the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.”

 

Industry sources, however, have indicated that San Diego is open to discussing either player — Grisham, in particular. The Marlins, flush with starting pitching, are one team that could make sense as a trade partner; the Padres have expressed interest in right-hander Pablo López and possibly others in the Miami rotation.

Grisham and Crismatt for Luzardo works as a fair trade on BTV. The problem is that Miami wants to trade Lopez who has half the control and 1/3 more value. I'm sure Miami is trying to force Lopez and are probably asking for Lesko and possibly even Merrill, which is not going to happen.

I don't know that I would even trade Grisham. If we did that would force us to not only play Tatis full time in CF, but would also put us in need of another starting COF like Profar. That's in addition to the 4th OF we need to cover Tatis for 20 games.

I think the Padres would be best off just signing Cueto at this point. He had a better ERA than Lopez had last year anyway. Filling holes in the roster by making other holes in the roster does not put us ahead.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 29, 2022, 1:17 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2022, 10:35 am

I'm fairly certain the Marlins signed Segura to play 2B for Jazz could move to SS.

I don't see any reason they would give up a controllable SP for a package around Kim.

I also think despite Grishams' defense they will want someone with more offense...which is what they are severely lacking.

So unless they are high on Campusano I don't think we line up well...which is why nothing has already happened.

Their signing of Segura was the final nail in this plan.

It seems Segura may be slated to play 3B.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/marlins-planning-to-play-jean-segura-at-third-base.html

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2022, 1:26 pm

Looks as though MIA will deploy Segura at 3B … keep Jazz at 2B … and Rojas at SS with Wendle (unless traded) the bench for all three slots.

If the MIA is setting up for a push to make the playoffs … it is with that elite SP … so finding it hard to believe they would trade any of their top 4 SP unless it is for a real impact bat … that is not Grisham.

So, could (would) flip the strategy and move Grisham to MIA for Berti (RHH, older, LF, but elite speed, about equal in pay) AND either Rogers or Garrett?

Grisham as a younger CF with power has more value in a CF deficient market than a singles hitting corner OF who looks to be heading towards the bench. Adding a long control SP (at minimum pay) may not help 2023 but adds to the mix for 2024.

Preller might push for more parts … MIA catching is not great (offensively) and their best catching prospect is a few years out … so Campusano may be of interest to upgrade the return.

Padres would really have to rely on Tatis in CF (Soto RF/Berti LF) and Severino as the back-up catcher … not ideal … but a lot depends on the value of the pitcher for the future as potential four SP become FA.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2022, 1:36 pm

IMO even if Miami keeps all the pitching they have right now they finish a distant 4th in that division.

TBH even if they had added a top FA bat like Correa I don't see any way they were finishing ahead of NYM,ATL,PHI.

This is why it seems they are being shortsighted trying to trade for major league ready bats.

They should be looking for higher upside prospects 1-2 years away IMO.

All things being equal would they be better off with Grisham or Merrill?

I'd say Merrill.

Not that I want them to trade Merrill...I just think the Marlins are trying to appease their fans by trading for guys they will see play "this year" even though they have no chance in that Division for at least a couple more seasons.