Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2022, 10:57 am

Quote from Randy Manese on December 28, 2022, 10:34 am

If Padres' pitchers are all healthy when spring training opens, we should be sitting on a potential basket of RP arms that would be highly desirable for contenders whose relief corps is their weakness.  Ranging all the way from Hill to Hader, there are numerous possibilities to add to our SP and bench or to replenish the farm system.  Could see Hill, Pomeranz, Garcia and Crismatt all be moved to fill other needs and be replaced at a lower salaried alternatives who have the potential to be just as effective - really depends on health and trust in the younger arms.  May not see that much activity along these lines until Tatis comes back in April, but these should be our trading chips and not Merrill, Zavala, Lesko, etc.

On another note, Dodgers lost the two Turners and Bellinger and thus far have only brought in Martinez as a veteran presence.  Will the potential starting infield of Muncy, Lux, Taylor and Freeman be a defensive improvement or barely adequate?  Are they really counting on Thompson and Outman as 2/3's of their starting OF?  Thinking that the Dodgers are going to make a major move in the next few months to shore up their offense so they have to depend less on their pitching, which also could be questionable because of recent injuries.  Up to this point in time, very much like our chances to go toe to toe with the Dodgers for the flag in the NL West.

I just don't see a way any of these guys would get us a controllable starter on the level we want/need like a Lopez or Luzardo from Miami.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2022, 12:25 pm

Given the position players still FA and the role being the 10th man at best … not really all that compelled to sign any of them for more than league minimum. Give two slots to Campusano and Azocar … only two slots and not panicking with Dixon, Dahl, Severino, Schrock, positioning for the role of #12 and #13. No real faith in Batten, Sullivan, and Rosario will be ticketed for AAA.

Then if you layer in a RP deal for a ML bench upgrade … all the better.

I can see where signing a FA above league minimum and adding the CBT penalty makes the cost committed not worth the difference given the limited play.

Maybe that is why we are not hearing much about the Padres and the lower end FA.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2022, 12:34 pm

Possibly the same thinking on another SP … the CBT penalty added to the contract maybe makes the target too costly for the expected production over the incumbents. Have to really assess Cueto, Wacha, and Greinke projections of 2023 vs the projections for Morejon, Teheran, Groome, or Avila. Is there (in Preller’s view) enough upgrade to justify the cost differential?

Have to really start wondering … given all the SP needs in MLB … why they are still on the board.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 28, 2022, 12:41 pm

Not looking to get someone of the caliber of Lopez or Luzardo by trading a RP (unless it is Hader) but rather a bottom of the rotation starter or a bench piece that is better than what we currently have.  It would also give us more flexibility with more RP's being able to be optioned over the course of the year.   I agree with Fenn that we're probably not going to see any high AAV signings unless they are convinced that Cueto is the final piece they need and he is demanding 10M or more.

On the other hand, can see the Dodgers throwing a lot of prospects to Pittsburgh for Reynolds.   Pittsburg could get quite a haul for him as the Dodgers, for once, seem to be dealing from a position of relative weakness in acquiring a top player via trade.  I'd start with Cartaya and one of Pages/Busch/Outman and then a couple of their young arms like Miller and Pepiot.  That would be awesome trade for Pittsburgh and basically be the equivalent of what we gave up for Soto.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2022, 12:54 pm

Meant to put this in this thread, and Randy has already responded, but others thoughts?

So let me roll a question out there, especially with the Kluber signing in BOS. They are rumored to be listening on Sale. Would he be a good gamble for SD to take? He did not pitch much last season, I believe 5 innings due to non baseball/fluke injuries. He is coming off TJ surgery in March of 2020, so for the last couple of seasons, not a lot of wear and tear on that arm.

If he bounces back to his 2018 form, he is a top of the rotation arm. His 2019 was a mid rotation guy. He is controlled through 2024, and a vesting option for 2025 based on 2024 CY Young standings. He is making a big contract, $27.5M per season, and the option is for $20M.

Is BOS looking to shed some of the contract dollars, or are they thinking they are getting top of the rotation pitcher prospects back? Would you take him if BOS included all the money that we sent for Hosmer?? Which would basically make Sale a $14.5M per season pitcher?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2022, 12:57 pm

The problem for me is our rotation after this season is Musgrove/?/?/?/Martinez

We have 5-6 "potential" #5 types....(Lopez,Knehr,Weathers,Morejon,Teheran,Groome etc) what we don't have are any potential #2/#3 types.

I guess just don't see the value or the need to acquire more of these type arms and hope for a success story when we are built to win now.

I would love to hold on to Merrill,Zavala,Lesko etc...but if we can get a #2/#3 starter controlled cheaply for 3 ish years....giving us $ to put towards Manny/Soto....I'd rather go ahead and bite the bullet.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2022, 1:11 pm

I expect the first move for 2024 SP will be a full bore run for extensions for Darvish and Snell … phase 2 will likely be pursuit of FA next winter if the extensions don’t pan out..

I just can’t see dealing for a lower cost / long control upper rotation SP without having to give up some “elite’ prospects. Plus that is contingent that the other team is willing to deal for what the Padres have to deal. Agree that adding bottom of the rotation pieces is not any better than the incumbents for a higher cost.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2022, 1:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2022, 1:11 pm

I expect the first move for 2024 SP will be a full bore run for extensions for Darvish and Snell … phase 2 will likely be pursuit of FA next winter if the extensions don’t pan out..

I just can’t see dealing for a lower cost / long control upper rotation SP without having to give up some “elite’ prospects. Plus that is contingent that the other team is willing to deal for what the Padres have to deal. Agree that adding bottom of the rotation pieces is not any better than the incumbents for a higher cost.

Yu's age and Snells inconsistencies worry me but yes....I think we will try to extend.

But waiting until next off season to address the rotation scares me.

Like I said...I 'd love to hold on to the prospects but our offense/defense is pretty much set for a couple years...maybe longer depending on Seidlers ideas with Machado/Soto.

A lot of free agent starters available next year....but we saw how much they're gonna cost for anything above a #4.

I trust AJ has a plan...none of this has not been considered by him of course.

As far as Yu and Snell I think I'd wait and see how Snells first half goes in 23' and conversely how Yu holds up in the second half.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2022, 1:52 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2022, 12:54 pm

Meant to put this in this thread, and Randy has already responded, but others thoughts?

So let me roll a question out there, especially with the Kluber signing in BOS. They are rumored to be listening on Sale. Would he be a good gamble for SD to take? He did not pitch much last season, I believe 5 innings due to non baseball/fluke injuries. He is coming off TJ surgery in March of 2020, so for the last couple of seasons, not a lot of wear and tear on that arm.

If he bounces back to his 2018 form, he is a top of the rotation arm. His 2019 was a mid rotation guy. He is controlled through 2024, and a vesting option for 2025 based on 2024 CY Young standings. He is making a big contract, $27.5M per season, and the option is for $20M.

Is BOS looking to shed some of the contract dollars, or are they thinking they are getting top of the rotation pitcher prospects back? Would you take him if BOS included all the money that we sent for Hosmer?? Which would basically make Sale a $14.5M per season pitcher?

 

Depends on the return .. this is currently a  Negative value trade (aka Hosmer like).. so if Boston wants to cut $$ and is willing to send Sale for a Rosario + Efrain Contreras double gold ticket spec haul.. OK.. if they want any of Merrill/Zavala/Snelling/Mazur or Laske... hard pass.. if he had Pitched 150 IP of 3.50 ERA ball in 2021 and 22.. yeah I can see the ask... having pitched < 50 IP in those yrs with ?? Health.. we offer a lesser package or go a different direction.. besides what if we only get 50 IP from Sale for 23 and 24 at $54 mil .. if I am AJP I explore a move for Sale .. but I wouldn't push any huge value Chips for him