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2023 offseason
#2631 · December 26, 2022, 12:00 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 26, 2022, 11:34 amPadres currently have 26 players who mostly play catcher, but Ethan Salas is projected to be better than any of them. Won't turn 17 until June 1st and likely will start in the ACL when that rookie league opens just after his birthday. Looking for him to dominate early and then move up to Lake Elsinore to finish the season. More than likely it will be his defense and play calling that will need the most refinement as well as recognition/timing on breaking pitches. If he shows a good BB/K ratio early, we'll know for sure that he has a legitimate chance to be a very fast mover in the system. Very excited to see him play and pair up with some of our high profile pitchers. We have a lot of minor leaguers who are ready for the next step - in 2023 we should see who sprints out front and who stumbles.
We already know his defense is ahead of schedule and he can hit the fastball like kids much older.
But can he hit the better off speed stuff?
This is what will determine his ML success.
I could see him on the Opening day roster in 2026 at 20 yrs old.
#2632 · December 26, 2022, 12:37 pm
In the dreams scenario for the Padres ... 2027 ... and everything goes right (I said DREAM):
C ... Salas (#)
1B ... Montesino (L)
2B ... Bogaerts ... $25MM (cash not AAV)
SS ... Merrill (L)
3B ... Machado ... $30MM (annual lower to get extension into his 40s)
LF ... Soto (L) ... $40MM (annual lower to get contract into his 40s)
CF ... Zavala (L)
RF ... Tatis ... $26MM (annual is starting to rise)
DH/Bench: King; Rojas, Murillo, Verdugo, Salinas
SP: Musgrove ($20MM); Lesko; Snelling; Lizarraga; Mauer;
RP: Suarez ($8MM); and a cast of league minimum types
So, six payers on contract and 20 at league minimum (hopefully some are very good) get the Padres to about $165 MM in annual salary (non-CBT) and leaves room for the eventual arb decisions that will take players out of arbitration. Sets up a 3-6 year window of success before some of the kids make it to FA (and big bucks).
A case for NOT trading the top prospects if you want to re-sign Soto and Machado. Then only sign (or trade for with secondary prospects) players on shorter contracts allowing for some of the prospect to arrive in 2025, 2026, and 2027. This does not even consider drafting a player in 2023-4 that could fit into the mix.
Padres could be set up for a long long contending run (Preller/Siedler's plan) IF (and this is a BIG IF) most of the prospects achieve near their potential.
#2633 · December 26, 2022, 1:00 pm
I want to see Doersching in a Padres uniform ..love that kid's persona and that Cowboy vibe sooo much... Fangraphs has him at AA .. hope that's where he starts..he is older as a 5 yr College draftee.. But that Power is sexy as heck.. I want to see a few balls leaving Petco...
#2634 · December 26, 2022, 1:05 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2022, 12:37 pmIn the dreams scenario for the Padres ... 2027 ... and everything goes right (I said DREAM):
C ... Salas (#)
1B ... Montesino (L)
2B ... Bogaerts ... $25MM (cash not AAV)
SS ... Merrill (L)
3B ... Machado ... $30MM (annual lower to get extension into his 40s)
LF ... Soto (L) ... $40MM (annual lower to get contract into his 40s)
CF ... Zavala (L)
RF ... Tatis ... $26MM (annual is starting to rise)
DH/Bench: King; Rojas, Murillo, Verdugo, Salinas
SP: Musgrove ($20MM); Lesko; Snelling; Lizarraga; Mauer;
RP: Suarez ($8MM); and a cast of league minimum types
So, six payers on contract and 20 at league minimum (hopefully some are very good) get the Padres to about $165 MM in annual salary (non-CBT) and leaves room for the eventual arb decisions that will take players out of arbitration. Sets up a 3-6 year window of success before some of the kids make it to FA (and big bucks).
A case for NOT trading the top prospects if you want to re-sign Soto and Machado. Then only sign (or trade for with secondary prospects) players on shorter contracts allowing for some of the prospect to arrive in 2025, 2026, and 2027. This does not even consider drafting a player in 2023-4 that could fit into the mix.
Padres could be set up for a long long contending run (Preller/Siedler's plan) IF (and this is a BIG IF) most of the prospects achieve near their potential.
The thing with being extremely top heavy and having basically 4 elite AS as position players .is that even with a few misses on specs. You can bring older veterans at lowish $$ to compliment/fill holes where the specs couldn't or aren't quite ready to do so.. a Carpenter/Piazza/Garvey etc.. could always be signed to supplement the roster with this kind of Flexibility..
Same holds on SP..
#2635 · December 26, 2022, 1:08 pm
The two keys being keeping the "Big 4" and the prospects becoming major league regulars.
Especially the pitchers.
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#2636 · December 26, 2022, 1:09 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2022, 11:57 amManny is our Captain,fan favorite,and a favorite of the Owner.
I can't see us shifting to another 3B if the money is close...or in this case,much higher.
The only way I see us not signing Manny to an extension is if Seidler/Preller have to decide between Soto and Machado.
If that becomes necessary I could see us going with the much younger player(Soto) esp. when we could move Xander and Tatis and still have the infield covered.Use the $$ to sign a Starter.
That being said....PLEASE baseball Gods,let us keep all four for the next 10 years.
I dont think Manny makes it to Opening Day without a new deal in place... He has become (taken away) the face of the franchise for the better.. and is our current day T Gwynn.. I honestly don't see him going anywhere...
#2637 · December 26, 2022, 2:22 pm
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/padres
Couple of signings I wasn't aware of.. Carlton AA..and Tim Lopes ..both have some MLB exposure with some success... Also a good source for who has options (Hill and Morejon ) basically as the Lopez RP is rule V and his 3 options don't count until 2024 if he survives our rostered 26 all season..
#2638 · December 26, 2022, 2:28 pm
Looking at our roster, think we have the INF covered with Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Crone, and Carpenter.
Still think the OF is light, yes Carpenter can play the corners; however, probably dont want him out there for more than a week in case of injury defense wise, and really only have Soto, Grisham, and Tatis bat wise.
Still think Gamel is a good option. Not a lot of power, but good BA and OBP wise and can handle defense wise LF and RF, and CF for an emergency. Have Azocar for CF defense as well.
Still think we need Cueto as well. Martinez, Lugo, and Morejon dont have the innings in the arm for a full season.
Would like an upgrade at C, not enamored with Campusano bat or defense wise.
But my priority would be Gamel and Cueto to round out the rotation and bench.
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#2639 · December 26, 2022, 2:42 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 26, 2022, 2:28 pmLooking at our roster, think we have the INF covered with Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Crone, and Carpenter.
Still think the OF is light, yes Carpenter can play the corners; however, probably dont want him out there for more than a week in case of injury defense wise, and really only have Soto, Grisham, and Tatis bat wise.
Still think Gamel is a good option. Not a lot of power, but good BA and OBP wise and can handle defense wise LF and RF, and CF for an emergency. Have Azocar for CF defense as well.
Still think we need Cueto as well. Martinez, Lugo, and Morejon dont have the innings in the arm for a full season.
Would like an upgrade at C, not enamored with Campusano bat or defense wise.
But my priority would be Gamel and Cueto to round out the rotation and bench.
I agree.. only 3 OFers in 40..+ Tatis .. 2 spots open (3 before Tatis)..
Internal options .. Dahl/Tucker /Ornelas/Howell/Kowhley/Liberato ALL have big ??? And the last 3 never been in MLB.. with Ornelas and Howell hitting AAA to begin a season for the 1st time...while Dixon has COF experience ..rallying on him early and often wouldn't be ideal.. dont need a huge bat.. even a late DFA or smallish trade of Cristmatt (no options) or the like for a 4th OF type could be something tobexplore
#2640 · December 26, 2022, 2:54 pm
Gamel would be ideal... Gamel + Cueto would also cost < Eovaldi by himself..another reason I like Cueto >
I think Severino was low key upgrade and insurance if Campy struggled .. Catcher is still our weakness overall.. obviously if Campy is even 1 WAR it would be in > vs 2022.. and there is upside there.. but still our most upgradeable position.. no FA of note left ..and FA class next offseason has little to NO C help.. Internal options beyond Severino/Sullivan.. are at least 1 season away ..and the > options King Jr and Salas will be in LE and ACL to start the yr so at least 3 yrs away...
Options in MLB that I like Hasse from Detroit makes a lot of sense..
Reds Stephenson would required too many of our top specs ..but is also entering "extension/lock up" territory and might be 2 seasons ahead of Reds time table to contention at least.. dont see much else at this moment to be honest ..and teams usually don't trade for C help at deadline as chemistry between C and P is often key on the success or failure of a P staff...
Basically if nothing else happens between now and spring trainning.. we ride with what we have
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