Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:06 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 25, 2022, 10:53 am

Not a chance I would do that trade, especially for Merrill.

I wonder how aggressive AJP is going to be with Merrill .. I spoke to a scout for the Mariners that thinks Merrill could be in San Diego towards the start of the 2nd half ..if not for the fact that there is no place to put him... He then said it wouldn't surprise to see him added to the post season roster.."He is that good" he told me... also said Salas been playing with guys 4 to 6yrs older than him since he was 12 yrs old and that he hasn't seen anyone so young (14,15,16) handle 96+ heat without much of an issue from both sides of the plate ..folks we got a couple of golden tickets making their journey towards San Diego..one could arrive soon and one has yet 3-4 or more yrs on his path...

I think that is why Merrill is "untouchable". He is that good and with the specter of a Machado opt out and the relatively short control with Kim (2 years) and Cronenworth (3 years) ... a slot will be open and if sooner dealing Kim or Cronenworth seems the solution.

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:37 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:06 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 25, 2022, 10:53 am

Not a chance I would do that trade, especially for Merrill.

I wonder how aggressive AJP is going to be with Merrill .. I spoke to a scout for the Mariners that thinks Merrill could be in San Diego towards the start of the 2nd half ..if not for the fact that there is no place to put him... He then said it wouldn't surprise to see him added to the post season roster.."He is that good" he told me... also said Salas been playing with guys 4 to 6yrs older than him since he was 12 yrs old and that he hasn't seen anyone so young (14,15,16) handle 96+ heat without much of an issue from both sides of the plate ..folks we got a couple of golden tickets making their journey towards San Diego..one could arrive soon and one has yet 3-4 or more yrs on his path...

I think that is why Merrill is "untouchable". He is that good and with the specter of a Machado opt out and the relatively short control with Kim (2 years) and Cronenworth (3 years) ... a slot will be open and if sooner dealing Kim or Cronenworth seems the solution.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if we extend Manny in Feb/March.. 12/360... then after 2023..(next offseason) trade Jake/Kim and possibly Grisham (FA in 2024)

Getting at least 1 SP for 2024.. 1 OF and a 1B in the process the last 2 preferably pre-arb ++...

Merrill slides in at 2B.. Tatis to CF.. only holes 1B and COF get a rook/2nd yr player or 3rd.acquired in trade for the above trio. easy carry by the rest of the guys

Allows all remaining Budget $$ to address at least 1SP and 3 or 4 BP arms (as Hader/Pomz/Garcia hit FA)..perhaps locking Hader . Or perhaps deciding to surround Suarez with 2 $10mil type BP arms vs Hader ($20+ avg per 5/110 type deal) only. Lots a ways this could go beyond 2023.. for sure

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:05 am

IF an important goal in adding a SP is the confidence that pitcher will actually give the team innings with a quality ERA. Looking at the remaining FA who at least 1.0 WAR projections ... there is a lot of risk in play.

The two best last season were Kluber (164 innings) and Cueto (158 innings) ... but both are 37-38 ... Cueto's first season in years coming near those innings and Kluber had a series of injuries in recent years.

Then drop down to Wacha (127), Eovaldi (109), Minor (98), and Miley (37). Can't see taking the risk on those guys for the money.

So seems the better risk play would be Kluber or Cueto ... but at what price? Would guess with the way FA are being paid and their agents knowing the demand, might be seeking multi-year guarantees and near $15MM AAV ... think about what some of the "lame" SP have received this year. At what point this winter are the Padres better off going with internal options and reevaluate at the trade deadline?

As for a trade (if any deal is realistic) runs into the Padres not really having the trade chips to outbid other teams without hurting the current team or overpaying with limited prospects.

I think at this point Cueto and Kubler would take 2/26 with a $13 mil option or $1 mil opt out... Anderson got 3/39 based off a CY type career yr.. so while Cueto and Kubler have better track records vs Anderson.. Anderson's 2022 was > than anything Kubler or Cueto have done in a pretty long time...

Having Cueto/Kubler around for 2024 as well eases the pressure on the Padres even if we only get 150 IP of 4.50 ball from them by then would be a big ++

2024

1. JOE

2. TBD

3. TBD

4. CUETO

5. MARTINEZ

6. INTERNAL options

 

Sure looks a lot better than

1. Joe

2. TBD

3. TBD

4.TBD

5. Martinez

6. internal option

Also to consider is Nick Martinez option 2/32 if he pitches 150 IP and has a 4.25 ERA do Padres pick up 2/$32 ($16mil per) for a solid 34 yr old #4/#5 SP..or does having a Cueto locked in at $13 for 2024.. make it easier for Padres to walk away from Nick (at that $$ for that production) and re-alocate those funds towards that #2 or #3 SP and then pivot to a lower $$ option at 5... in a perfect world Nick goes 150 IP 3.75 ERA and claims #3 for 24 and 25 and eases the burden a a lot at $16 per..

A lot of moving parts that have to play out before even trying to guess the rotation past Musgrove.

1. Can the Padres re-sign Darvish and/or Snell ... or do they want to if one or both get major injuries and just perform poorly? What would they demand in a contract?
2. Do some of the internal options take the next step up or do the fail miserably in 2023? Morejon and Groome are probably the best upside near term.
3. Does Lugo become an effective SP and does re-signing him at a SP price in the mix?
4. Does Teheran regain his form and do the Padres re-sign him as a SP?
5. Do the Padres have some FA targets with upside at "bargain" contracts?

So, Martinez at $16MM for 2 years may seem justifiable if he is delivering 150+ innings and an ERA in the low 4s especially if the cost of FA continues to rise.

Considering that landscape with every current SP except Musgrove a question mark for 2024 ... if they have confidence in either Kluber or Cueto lasting through 2024 ... a multi-year deal in the low teens AAV works.

Fortunately the offense will need little tinkering (except some minor bench work) so the focus should be pitching (RP will also become an issue with Hader, Pomeranz, Garcia FA but there are arguable better in-house back fill)

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:58 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:05 am

IF an important goal in adding a SP is the confidence that pitcher will actually give the team innings with a quality ERA. Looking at the remaining FA who at least 1.0 WAR projections ... there is a lot of risk in play.

The two best last season were Kluber (164 innings) and Cueto (158 innings) ... but both are 37-38 ... Cueto's first season in years coming near those innings and Kluber had a series of injuries in recent years.

Then drop down to Wacha (127), Eovaldi (109), Minor (98), and Miley (37). Can't see taking the risk on those guys for the money.

So seems the better risk play would be Kluber or Cueto ... but at what price? Would guess with the way FA are being paid and their agents knowing the demand, might be seeking multi-year guarantees and near $15MM AAV ... think about what some of the "lame" SP have received this year. At what point this winter are the Padres better off going with internal options and reevaluate at the trade deadline?

As for a trade (if any deal is realistic) runs into the Padres not really having the trade chips to outbid other teams without hurting the current team or overpaying with limited prospects.

I think at this point Cueto and Kubler would take 2/26 with a $13 mil option or $1 mil opt out... Anderson got 3/39 based off a CY type career yr.. so while Cueto and Kubler have better track records vs Anderson.. Anderson's 2022 was > than anything Kubler or Cueto have done in a pretty long time...

Having Cueto/Kubler around for 2024 as well eases the pressure on the Padres even if we only get 150 IP of 4.50 ball from them by then would be a big ++

2024

1. JOE

2. TBD

3. TBD

4. CUETO

5. MARTINEZ

6. INTERNAL options

 

Sure looks a lot better than

1. Joe

2. TBD

3. TBD

4.TBD

5. Martinez

6. internal option

Also to consider is Nick Martinez option 2/32 if he pitches 150 IP and has a 4.25 ERA do Padres pick up 2/$32 ($16mil per) for a solid 34 yr old #4/#5 SP..or does having a Cueto locked in at $13 for 2024.. make it easier for Padres to walk away from Nick (at that $$ for that production) and re-alocate those funds towards that #2 or #3 SP and then pivot to a lower $$ option at 5... in a perfect world Nick goes 150 IP 3.75 ERA and claims #3 for 24 and 25 and eases the burden a a lot at $16 per..

A lot of moving parts that have to play out before even trying to guess the rotation past Musgrove.

1. Can the Padres re-sign Darvish and/or Snell ... or do they want to if one or both get major injuries and just perform poorly? What would they demand in a contract?
2. Do some of the internal options take the next step up or do the fail miserably in 2023? Morejon and Groome are probably the best upside near term.
3. Does Lugo become an effective SP and does re-signing him at a SP price in the mix?
4. Does Teheran regain his form and do the Padres re-sign him as a SP?
5. Do the Padres have some FA targets with upside at "bargain" contracts?

So, Martinez at $16MM for 2 years may seem justifiable if he is delivering 150+ innings and an ERA in the low 4s especially if the cost of FA continues to rise.

Considering that landscape with every current SP except Musgrove a question mark for 2024 ... if they have confidence in either Kluber or Cueto lasting through 2024 ... a multi-year deal in the low teens AAV works.

Fortunately the offense will need little tinkering (except some minor bench work) so the focus should be pitching (RP will also become an issue with Hader, Pomeranz, Garcia FA but there are arguable better in-house back fill)

Time to hope on Wolf/Cienfuegos and Brito at AA turning into at least Eric Lauer's or Eflin's.. and Mazur arriving as projected (ETA 2024)... then the wave of >;upside (besides Mazur) arms begins to arrive in 25 with Lizarraga + Henry Williams... and 26 tidal wave with MR Lefty Snelling (currently ranked #10 best lefty spec in baseball) and Mr Righty Lesko (already top 100 at #94)...

Showing a bit of that restrain for 23-25/26 that AJP showed from 2016 to 2020 in building a phenomenal minor league machine.. (harder to do when you are in win now mode) but at least 80% restrain.. would go a long way to a pipeline of prospects that compliment the MLB club for the next decade as (I think they want) Padres keep the Fearsome 4 some together

Highest Grade* at Low A by Age:

17: Samuel Zavala (2022 - 60)
18: Bryce Harper (2011 - 63)
19: Juan Soto (2018 - 68)
20: Yordan Alvarez (2017 - 62)
21: Max White (2015 - 61)
22: Matt Curry (2011 - 59)
23: Kacy Clemens (2018 - 58)

*Combination of youth, hit, walk, & speed score.

— Pitcher DIGS (@DigsPitcher) December 26, 2022

Keep Zavala off your fkng mouths.. (lol..)

Wow highest 17 yr old Grade at A ball ever.. look at that company .. this kid is going to be starting in CF as soon as 2025.. .. Grish is a FA after 2024.. hmmm.. Mears/Howell at AA/AAA... assuming  Zavala's wrist surgery and rehab don't cost him any or many LE ABs the 1st half.. maybe he finds A+ towards the end of the yr .. then 2024 A+/AA and from there is anyone's guess ..Like CJ and Tatis could jump all the way up..or be an in season call up from AAA in 2025... more likely 2026... he still only be a 21 yr old rookie in 2026... so much talent, so young.. man AJP trades the whole farm and yet you look left and see Merrill, look right and here is Zavala.. look up and Salas cones in..look down and here comes De Vie in 2024.. and then there is Salinas/ Rojas and all the arms we drafted.. AJP going to have this system back on top as early as 2024..

Ha-Seong Kim pretty drastic career plate discipline splits facing righties vs lefties

vs righties 7.0 BB% 21.8 K%
vs lefties 11.2 BB% 14.4 K%

For reference league avg BB% last year was 8.2% and league avg K% was 22.4%

— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) December 26, 2022

I knew Kim was > vs LHP .. but man that's pretty elite level there... if he can improve just ever so slightly vs RHP he could be a complete "elite" SS.. he is already there on D and vs lefties..just needs a tick or 2 better vs RHP and watch out!

We have been speculating on the Machado opt out (highly likely) and his contract to re-sign. Wonder how the other two 3B FA will impact his FA? Manny is clearly the best based on 2022 BUT a bit of any contract is which teams want to pay for a MVP type 3B (vs other needs) and maybe team bias on even the 3B alternatives.

#1 ... Machado (RHH) will be 31

#2 ... Devers (LHH) will be 26

#3 ... Chapman (RHH) will be 30

Will Devers because he is 5 years younger (and likely to provide high production longer) be preferred by some teams?

Will Chapman because he should be much cheaper than the other two be preferred by teams that don't want to chase the high price and essentially take a potential buyer out of the bidding?

How does Manny (and his agent) evaluate the potential buyers in conjunction with the other two ... knowing not every team will pay the price for an elite 3B and maybe even that Otani will be drawing interest (and money) for the big spenders potentially reducing the teams in on him.

Look at that landscape and MAYBE Manny is less motivated to test the FA market and could be more comfortable with an extension but not at max AAV target.

============

A we hear is that Siedler would like Machado back / Machado would like to be back ... what else would they say ... but money is change agent and IF Manny wants to push for the moon ... Would the Padres shift to the younger Devers and put him at 1B, Bogaerts to 3B and re-shift Kim / Croney back to SS/2B? Padres would be 5 more years in what should be Devers peak productivity and push out having to deal with decline for an additional five years. More aligned with Tatis / Soto (if re-signed).

Padres currently have 26 players who mostly play catcher, but Ethan Salas is projected to be better than any of them.  Won't turn 17 until June 1st and likely will start in the ACL when that rookie league opens just after his birthday.  Looking for him to dominate early and then move up to Lake Elsinore to finish the season.  More than likely it will be his defense and play calling that will need the most refinement as well as recognition/timing on breaking pitches.  If he shows a good BB/K ratio early, we'll know for sure that he has a legitimate chance to be a very fast mover in the system.  Very excited to see him play and pair up with some of our high profile pitchers.  We have a lot of minor leaguers who are ready for the next step - in 2023 we should see who sprints out front and who stumbles.

Manny is our Captain,fan favorite,and a favorite of the Owner.

I can't see us shifting to another 3B if the money is close...or in this case,much higher.

The only way I see us not signing Manny to an extension is if Seidler/Preller have to decide between Soto and Machado.

If that becomes necessary I could see us going with the much younger player(Soto) esp. when we could move Xander and Tatis and still have the infield covered.Use the $$ to sign a Starter.

That being said....PLEASE baseball Gods,let us keep all four for the next 10 years.