Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 10:34 am

22 vs 23

So far (assuming Voit/Profar and all left former 22 Pads don't come back.. and we don't add anyone else

Total WAR Exodus from 2022 to 2023 we lost 3.2 WAR

Total WAR added from 2022 to 2023 (this offseason) +8.9 WAR

Net WAR gained +5.7*

+ Tatis and Pomz ..whatever WAR they bring to the 2023 Padres ..assuming 80% of their avg WAR last 2 seasons played that's +6.8 WAR from these 2

 

So +12.5 WAR > vs 2022... thats 💯 + Wins for 2023... and this counts Soto as his Padres self only

On Paper and in Theory our 2023 Padres are our best team in History of the franchise

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 10:35 am

To all a Merry Christmas!

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 10:43 am

I can't see BOST trading Sale without getting a major piece in return. After the FA signings this year .... does not seem that shedding his contract to save money is a motivator.

Actually they may be better off taking the risk on his health and if he is healthy ... his trade value at the deadline soars. If he is so-so ... probably will get what is on the table now. If he blows out his arm ... that is the risk ... probably not that big a loss unless a current offer has a high probability piece that is bypassed.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 10:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 10:43 am

I can't see BOST trading Sale without getting a major piece in return. After the FA signings this year .... does not seem that shedding his contract to save money is a motivator.

Actually they may be better off taking the risk on his health and if he is healthy ... his trade value at the deadline soars. If he is so-so ... probably will get what is on the table now. If he blows out his arm ... that is the risk ... probably not that big a loss unless a current offer has a high probability piece that is bypassed.

https://twitter.com/MiserableSDFan/status/1607064387159982080?t=ReB7gEMBDlhCOf8u_O59zw&s=19

Trade simulator says Sale = -13 pts just saying... Jesus Merrill is worth a ton

Quote from BoosterSD on December 25, 2022, 10:53 am

Not a chance I would do that trade, especially for Merrill.

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:05 am

IF an important goal in adding a SP is the confidence that pitcher will actually give the team innings with a quality ERA. Looking at the remaining FA who at least 1.0 WAR projections ... there is a lot of risk in play.

The two best last season were Kluber (164 innings) and Cueto (158 innings) ... but both are 37-38 ... Cueto's first season in years coming near those innings and Kluber had a series of injuries in recent years.

Then drop down to Wacha (127), Eovaldi (109), Minor (98), and Miley (37). Can't see taking the risk on those guys for the money.

So seems the better risk play would be Kluber or Cueto ... but at what price? Would guess with the way FA are being paid and their agents knowing the demand, might be seeking multi-year guarantees and near $15MM AAV ... think about what some of the "lame" SP have received this year. At what point this winter are the Padres better off going with internal options and reevaluate at the trade deadline?

As for a trade (if any deal is realistic) runs into the Padres not really having the trade chips to outbid other teams without hurting the current team or overpaying with limited prospects.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:06 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 25, 2022, 10:53 am

Not a chance I would do that trade, especially for Merrill.

I wonder how aggressive AJP is going to be with Merrill .. I spoke to a scout for the Mariners that thinks Merrill could be in San Diego towards the start of the 2nd half ..if not for the fact that there is no place to put him... He then said it wouldn't surprise to see him added to the post season roster.."He is that good" he told me... also said Salas been playing with guys 4 to 6yrs older than him since he was 12 yrs old and that he hasn't seen anyone so young (14,15,16) handle 96+ heat without much of an issue from both sides of the plate ..folks we got a couple of golden tickets making their journey towards San Diego..one could arrive soon and one has yet 3-4 or more yrs on his path...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 11:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:05 am

IF an important goal in adding a SP is the confidence that pitcher will actually give the team innings with a quality ERA. Looking at the remaining FA who at least 1.0 WAR projections ... there is a lot of risk in play.

The two best last season were Kluber (164 innings) and Cueto (158 innings) ... but both are 37-38 ... Cueto's first season in years coming near those innings and Kluber had a series of injuries in recent years.

Then drop down to Wacha (127), Eovaldi (109), Minor (98), and Miley (37). Can't see taking the risk on those guys for the money.

So seems the better risk play would be Kluber or Cueto ... but at what price? Would guess with the way FA are being paid and their agents knowing the demand, might be seeking multi-year guarantees and near $15MM AAV ... think about what some of the "lame" SP have received this year. At what point this winter are the Padres better off going with internal options and reevaluate at the trade deadline?

As for a trade (if any deal is realistic) runs into the Padres not really having the trade chips to outbid other teams without hurting the current team or overpaying with limited prospects.

I think at this point Cueto and Kubler would take 2/26 with a $13 mil option or $1 mil opt out... Anderson got 3/39 based off a CY type career yr.. so while Cueto and Kubler have better track records vs Anderson.. Anderson's 2022 was > than anything Kubler or Cueto have done in a pretty long time...

Having Cueto/Kubler around for 2024 as well eases the pressure on the Padres even if we only get 150 IP of 4.50 ball from them by then would be a big ++

2024

1. JOE

2. TBD

3. TBD

4. CUETO

5. MARTINEZ

6. INTERNAL options

 

Sure looks a lot better than

1. Joe

2. TBD

3. TBD

4.TBD

5. Martinez

6. internal option

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 11:33 am

Similar issue in adding a 4th OF ... slim pickings for what the price may turn out out to be. Based on Fangraphs projected WAR the top OF available:

1.4 Profar (30) ... Drury type contract?

1.3 Anderson (30) ,,, significant injury risk ... plus defense but slightly below average offense ... might be best suited for a part-time role ... that is what the Padres need

1.2 Mancini (31) ... bad defensively in he OF but good platoon DH with Carpenter ... probably would prefer to find a team where he can start and set up the next contract

1.0 Pollack (35) ... offense has been fading (not what he was) ... turned down a $13MM player option with CWS ($5MM buyout) ... another player who probably is trying for a team where he gets a lot of playing time.

With the signing of Carpenter as a LHH ... the RHH OF signing (and part-time DH) is not getting a lot of playing time barring injury ... how do the Padres convince someone to sign without overpaying for what he is expected to do consider they are basically replacement level talents?

Not sure on Anderson's recent injuries ... but if reasonably healthy, he may be the most flexible in signing for a part-time role ... provide good defense ... not hurt offensively.

As it stands, the Padres are relying on Azocar / Dahl as the OF bench. As the RHH platoon with Carpenter as DH? Does Severino make the 26 man and free up Nola / Campusano to rotate through DH when not catching?

Another case of hold as is and wait to the trade deadline to find a rental piece to fill out the 26 man? Is this a better chance for a trade using "excess" RP to get a "serviceable" 4th OF/part-time player and a much lower cost than any of the FA?