Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 10:14 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:51 am

Well the Hell with all I said...

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1606343960439361536?t=u5WZ1ryTD01t550MHPPfow&s=19

I guess the projections (which are likely low) had him around $8MM/1 year. At 36 had a great rebound season with the CWS pitching over 150 innings with a good ERA. Doesn't walk many, doesn't strikeout many .. a lot of contact and a slightly above average GB%.

However, the performance projections have him dropping back in results for 2023 at age 37. Not sure why but maybe they look at those peripherals (like missing bats) and that does not fit their models.

Don't know much about him as a clubhouse guy or the injury concern but going 158 innings last season ... if think he can repeat does fill a want to stabilize the SP. Martinez, Lugo, and Martinez (the current #4-6) will be challenged to hit the needed innings over a full season even if the drop to a 5 man rotation mid-season.

Add Cueto (or Kluber) as #4 and Melvin can strategically control innings with Martinez, Lugo, Morejon with starts and relief since all three have the RP experience / skills. I know Preller does not work this way but he could start 2023 with Morejon in the minors (he has an option) to stretch him as a SP (and maybe gain another control year). Of the minor league options he may jump to the head of the class as a call-up to cover injury or poor performance.

Quote from 84padres on December 23, 2022, 10:48 am

Yesterday, a decision was handed down that Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer would have his suspension reduced to 194 games. This leaves him reinstated ahead of the 2023 season, meaning that LA will be on the hook for most of his 2023 salary (Bauer’s pay has been docked for the first 50 games of the 2023 season, which cuts into his final payday considerably). The news leaves the Dodgers barely $100K under the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource, giving them essentially no breathing room if they wish to stay under the luxury tax, as has been rumored

 

This is very good news for us. Either the Duds are done or they go over the cap again

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 10:49 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 10:14 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:51 am

Well the Hell with all I said...

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1606343960439361536?t=u5WZ1ryTD01t550MHPPfow&s=19

I guess the projections (which are likely low) had him around $8MM/1 year. At 36 had a great rebound season with the CWS pitching over 150 innings with a good ERA. Doesn't walk many, doesn't strikeout many .. a lot of contact and a slightly above average GB%.

However, the performance projections have him dropping back in results for 2023 at age 37. Not sure why but maybe they look at those peripherals (like missing bats) and that does not fit their models.

Don't know much about him as a clubhouse guy or the injury concern but going 158 innings last season ... if think he can repeat does fill a want to stabilize the SP. Martinez, Lugo, and Martinez (the current #4-6) will be challenged to hit the needed innings over a full season even if the drop to a 5 man rotation mid-season.

Add Cueto (or Kluber) as #4 and Melvin can strategically control innings with Martinez, Lugo, Morejon with starts and relief since all three have the RP experience / skills. I know Preller does not work this way but he could start 2023 with Morejon in the minors (he has an option) to stretch him as a SP (and maybe gain another control year). Of the minor league options he may jump to the head of the class as a call-up to cover injury or poor performance.

The bar is pretty low ..our 4 5 6 combined for 4.50 ERA last yr.. proj are weird when they don't even know where he will pitch.. I mean if it's OAK /Seattle or SD he likely gains 0.50 ERA say he is due for a 4 25 in Sox land.. thats like 3 75 with 1/2 starts at Petco.. is not an exact science ..but from Musgrove to Davies to Lyles etc... everyone that comes to SD seems to benefit by 1/2 a run in ERA if not more...

I am fine with his GB% vs flyball.. Petco favors such..too heavy on GB% (Kubler) yes our D plays but there is also a chance those balls get passed or booted at times.. deep fly balls are 99.9% auto outs so Cueto with Petco aid > but on the road maybe Kubler > either is fine at #4.. we just need 4.50 ERA and thus a chance to get the W most nights with our BP..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 10:49 am

BTW

https://twitter.com/wilmyers/status/1606310127908184064?t=Tlc0L3Y4gKwdDrCoRTyFXQ&s=19

 

Wil Myers is all Class

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 11:38 am

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteel04.shtml

 

Just DFAd

If White has options left ..not a bad option to back up Azocar as the backup CFer in a AAA/MLB taxi role... dude has wheels and Steals bases ..plays good D at all 3 spots and has more power than Azocar..but a worst hit tool and OBP skills.. still nice insurance for AAA think Jankowski just in case..

 

Hell White 1.0 WAR in 2022... Azocar 0.1 WAR.. and White had 100+ less plate apperances.. so likely he would beat Azocar for backup CFer.. slight improvements add up

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 1:24 pm

Varsho traded to Blue Jays for C Moreno (awesome spec).+ Lourdes Guriel.. Lourdes makes little sense as they are loaded with OF

.that's a great haul for AZ tbh..Moreno has best C (Smith LAD and all) in the NL West potential from day 1 in 2023.. like Varsho..Moreno is athletic and can play 2B/OF and 1B as well..

Since Varsho can C ..I wonder if Jansen is still available.. Varsho and Kirk would make Jansen a bench player when each is C as the other would DH.. I mean Jays have 2 better CFers ahead of him although Varsho may be the > CF overall over Springer (inj) and K..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 1:29 pm

Biggest trade of the offseason maybe opens the trading portal for all

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 1:40 pm

So taking a look at Jays deal .. Varsho and Reynolds are very similar value wise ..with Reynolds slightly >offensively.. Varsho > WAR/ and best DSR +19 OF in mlb last yr as in #1..+ he C at an above avg level as well . Say they are = or even make Reynolds slightly >

Moreno top 10 MLB spec.. >= Merrill (who should be like #16 when the new top 100 come out) and Gish> Guriel .. so Merrill + Grushman + Cosgrove (to up the return ever so slightly for Reynolds vs Varsho) who says no?

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 2:06 pm

Maybe both sides. Have to make some value separation between Moreno and Merrill. Moreno is ML ready (played well last year) and has 6 years control … much more an immediate sure thing that Merrill who is an A ball player with upside but 2-3 years away creating a greater risk.

Good trade for both sides.

Toronto gets a 4.6 WAR player with plus defense for LF (they signed Kiermeier for gold glove CF work). Varsho has 4 years control and is a LHH with power in a lineup with only Kiermeier as the other LHH. Springer can play RF with plus defense. Pushed out is Gurriel (2 years control and a poor fielder with little power) and $3MM more expensive than Varsho. Big plus for Toronto in a playoff push.

Arizona who is not in playoff contention gets to play the long game with an elite prospect under control for 6 years and a “filler” 29 year old OF … basically a 1 WAR type. AZ has some good prospects coming soon so may think they will contend in a couple of years.

My guess PITT would want more in a near term prospect talent Doubt Grisham and Cosgrove move the needle. SD … if they moved Merrill … might prefer to get a top line SP given thier offense is already elite and under control for a few years while SP has a chance to totally fall apart next season.

Basically would like Reynolds but does not move the Padres needle that much incrementally.