Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 8:38 am

How about :

*Kim + Morejon + Baez + Wethers + Campusano

*All young controllable pieces with just Kim making a little extra $$

FOR

Arraez + Jeffers + Keppler and Gray

Gray is on his final yr but meets a great need.. Kepler is more of a D 1st OFer but perfect to spell Tatis or Soto late in games and cover both when need be.. Jeffers is a young vet C who is the perfect backup to Nola..like Nola he is a .650ish OPS C ..with a solid mid 20's CS%.. and off course Arraez.

Twinkies get an elite SS ..who is improving at the plate and maybe a .280/20hr/80 rbi guy in Minnesota.. Campusano a young C with upside who eventually could be >Jeffers overall and who also would benefit away from Petco.. Morejon who has upside to SP/CL or be a LHRP at worst...Baez can be a SP or BP arm improvement and controlled for them.. and Wethers still super young could develop into an Eric Lauer type, add to their BP or serve the same role as AAA insurance that he has for us lately...

It's a big trade for sure but we add net +1 Bat and +1 SP (Morejon is not SP material for us in 2023.. he just can't be counted on more than 80-100 IP in 23.. as he builds endurance for 2024 and beyond..

Gray is that SP insurance for 1 2 3 in SD that we don't currently have ..we could QO him in the offseason as well and try to keep him beyond or at least recoup some spec capital...

What do you all think?

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 8:52 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 8:38 am

How about :

*Kim + Morejon + Baez + Wethers + Campusano

*All young controllable pieces with just Kim making a little extra $$

FOR

Arraez + Jeffers + Keppler and Gray

Gray is on his final yr but meets a great need.. Kepler is more of a D 1st OFer but perfect to spell Tatis or Soto late in games and cover both when need be.. Jeffers is a young vet C who is the perfect backup to Nola..like Nola he is a .650ish OPS C ..with a solid mid 20's CS%.. and off course Arraez.

Twinkies get an elite SS ..who is improving at the plate and maybe a .280/20hr/80 rbi guy in Minnesota.. Campusano a young C with upside who eventually could be >Jeffers overall and who also would benefit away from Petco.. Morejon who has upside to SP/CL or be a LHRP at worst...Baez can be a SP or BP arm improvement and controlled for them.. and Wethers still super young could develop into an Eric Lauer type, add to their BP or serve the same role as AAA insurance that he has for us lately...

It's a big trade for sure but we add net +1 Bat and +1 SP (Morejon is not SP material for us in 2023.. he just can't be counted on more than 80-100 IP in 23.. as he builds endurance for 2024 and beyond..

Gray is that SP insurance for 1 2 3 in SD that we don't currently have ..we could QO him in the offseason as well and try to keep him beyond or at least recoup some spec capital...

What do you all think?

Hard no from MINN. MINN just signed Gallo because they plan to contend ... why would they trade their lead-off hitter (and batting champ), their starting RF, and a SP for only Kim and a group of bench pieces and spec prospects.

Go down 3 starters to get 1 starter does nothing to make them a contender.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 8:54 am

Just did a deep dive into BAEZ #'s... Jesus this guy could be our #6.. find it interesting no one really talks about this 6'8" Cuban much.. He and Morejon were the prize gets of the 2016 Intl class yet somehow Baez always goes unoticed... he actually had a 0.1 WAR as a BP arm despite only pitching 2.0 IP for us in 2023.. He has been a SP and RP in the past..

Morejon 2022 IP combined 47

Baez 49

Safe to say neither should go more than 80 in 2023.. but perhaps start Morejon til he hits 80..then Baez for the next 80.. neither would be needed in post season with Lugo/Martinez/Hill/Wilson/Suarez/Hader/Garcia and maybe Pomz all available in the BP in postseason.. so why not start them for 80 IP each ..up and down every 2 or 3 starts interchanging them..thoughout the year

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:04 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 8:52 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 8:38 am

How about :

*Kim + Morejon + Baez + Wethers + Campusano

*All young controllable pieces with just Kim making a little extra $$

FOR

Arraez + Jeffers + Keppler and Gray

Gray is on his final yr but meets a great need.. Kepler is more of a D 1st OFer but perfect to spell Tatis or Soto late in games and cover both when need be.. Jeffers is a young vet C who is the perfect backup to Nola..like Nola he is a .650ish OPS C ..with a solid mid 20's CS%.. and off course Arraez.

Twinkies get an elite SS ..who is improving at the plate and maybe a .280/20hr/80 rbi guy in Minnesota.. Campusano a young C with upside who eventually could be >Jeffers overall and who also would benefit away from Petco.. Morejon who has upside to SP/CL or be a LHRP at worst...Baez can be a SP or BP arm improvement and controlled for them.. and Wethers still super young could develop into an Eric Lauer type, add to their BP or serve the same role as AAA insurance that he has for us lately...

It's a big trade for sure but we add net +1 Bat and +1 SP (Morejon is not SP material for us in 2023.. he just can't be counted on more than 80-100 IP in 23.. as he builds endurance for 2024 and beyond..

Gray is that SP insurance for 1 2 3 in SD that we don't currently have ..we could QO him in the offseason as well and try to keep him beyond or at least recoup some spec capital...

What do you all think?

Hard no from MINN. MINN just signed Gallo because they plan to contend ... why would they trade their lead-off hitter (and batting champ), their starting RF, and a SP for only Kim and a group of bench pieces and spec prospects.

Go down 3 starters to get 1 starter does nothing to make them a contender.

 

Is Minn a contender with no CL.. - Correa and with Gallo playing everyday though? SOX have way > P.. Guardians are >.. retooling in 2023 while remaining somewhat competitive and finding an AS level SS in the process > riding with Gray and trading him for a 45 spec at the deadline

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 9:12 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 8:54 am

Just did a deep dive into BAEZ #'s... Jesus this guy could be our #6.. find it interesting no one really talks about this 6'8" Cuban much.. He and Morejon were the prize gets of the 2016 Intl class yet somehow Baez always goes unoticed... he actually had a 0.2 WAR as a BP arm despite only pitching 4.7 IP for us in 2023.. He has been a SP and RP in the past..

2023 going to be a big year for Baez ... will be interesting to see how the Padres handle him. He missed all 2021 with TJ surgery and eased back in 2022 as a RP (had an IL stint for his elbow). 2023 is his last option year so needs to develop enough to make the 2024 26 man roster.

In his early career he looked as though he could be a SP ... post surgery the view may have shifted to RP. Padres will need quality arms in both SP and RP slots but with a lot of control Padres may opt for the Morejon route and first set him up to succeed in long relief ... build up some innings / success ... come back in 2025 as a SP option. Only pitched 47.2 innings last year.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2022, 9:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 8:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 7:49 am

In what world is Rogers worth 3/$33.. Rogers & Rogers law firm in SF = Runs & Runs for opponents

Strange world ... beginning to think passing on all the remaining FA and trades for quality pieces and go with the very strong current roster (still better than most) and just do some low end upgrades / low cost while letting the dust settle around the "excesses".

Rogers was dominant early and really good for most of his Twins career. It's just a bet on him returning to form. It's only 1m a year over what MLBTR predicted. Plus you guys are forgetting about the wonder twins powers he and Tyler are going to get.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:41 am

Looking at our proj 26 post and pre Tatis.. I am beginning to say Lets Ride with what we have ..keep payroll where it's at or even improve it a bit if Pomz is pitching well a d healthy in ST (and we have a hole that os created or exposed) then can pivot..or simply look at DFA activity to fill in depth of it improves us.. look for AJP to add guys like Dylan Bundy SP on split deals like Teheran ..perhaps with player options to opt out if not on mlb roster by a certain date 6/15 let's say... then we can always access the situation in mid June/July trade deadline and ++ a SP a BP arm a Bat.. Othani? Etc.. at that point...

For all we know Teheran comes in hungry in ST and pitches like his AS former self and we are gucci..

What I dont want to see is Lesko (already top 100, Snelling #10 best lefty P prospect in baseball already, Mazur ready by 2024 projection, Lizarraga looking study, Wolf bringing that soft and deadly arsenal of not common stuff) traded any time soon... with next yrs draft and all... from 2024 to 2026 or so we should have up to 4 of 6 SP spots manned by internal options with = or > upside/performance to our current guys..I dont want to trade the next Max Freid or Kubler.. hell or Quantrill or Lauer or Eflin for that matter.. that wouldn't be a bad rotation for 2023.. and none were traded for pieces we currently have (I don't believe except Lauer for Grishman).. BUT if we do trade 1 or 2 from the flock I would want someone that helps us reach the WS and not the 10th guy or the 6th SP on this team...

Same goes with Merrill/Zavala/Salas (down the road)/etc.. if we keeping the Fearsome 4 some at our near $125mil the other 4 position players can't take up more than $20-$25 mil combined to sustain that for a decade)..Pre-arb players will be needed at least to cover 4-5 of the other 9 spots behind the 4..

P wise we can probably maintain $80 to $100 mil allocation to the of 13.. but having 3 SP at min or < $1mil... allows for 2 or 3 SP over $20mil per... same in the BP 1 $10ish CL/ 1 $7ish set up/ 1 $5ish guy/ 1 $3ish and 3 or 4 pre arb dudes.. with another 7-10 arms behind them in AA/AAA... at least this is how I would approach the San Diego Padres going foward... both fiscally responsible $250ish payroll +/- yr to yr and maintaining a contending club on the field yr after yr....

* for all I know Siedler has another $100mil burning a hole in his pocket and he goes all in on Othani next offseason.. but I am assuming $250 to $300 for the next decade is where he wants to be...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:44 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2022, 9:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 8:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 7:49 am

In what world is Rogers worth 3/$33.. Rogers & Rogers law firm in SF = Runs & Runs for opponents

Strange world ... beginning to think passing on all the remaining FA and trades for quality pieces and go with the very strong current roster (still better than most) and just do some low end upgrades / low cost while letting the dust settle around the "excesses".

Rogers was dominant early and really good for most of his Twins career. It's just a bet on him returning to form. It's only 1m a year over what MLBTR predicted. Plus you guys are forgetting about the wonder twins powers he and Tyler are going to get.

Womder Twin powers activate form me a Vaseline container, form me undetectable spider junk... Rogers & Rogers = 1.20 ERA 55 saves 0.50 WHIP once they activate the power...ooof!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2022, 9:51 am

Well the Hell with all I said...

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1606343960439361536?t=u5WZ1ryTD01t550MHPPfow&s=19