Forum
Forum Navigation
2023 offseason
#2541 · December 23, 2022, 4:08 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 22, 2022, 6:52 pmI'm still thinking a trade of Kim to MIN would be best for SD. One where SD ends up with Arraez and Kepler.
And then make the MIA trade work, where SD gets Lopez, Soler, and Berti.
Position players would then be: Soto, Grisham, Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Crone, Arraez, Nola, Carpenter, Soler, Berti, Campusano, and Azocar.
Pitchers would be Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Lopez, Martinez, Lugo as SPs, and the BP of Hader, Suarez, Garcia, Pomeranz, Hill, Wilson, Lopez. Plus would still have Teheran waiting in AAA for back up and Morejon is there as well, being stretched out.
The Kim to MINN makes some sense given MINN need for a legit SS and the Padres have the ability to keep Cronenworth at 2B so the middle INF remains covered.
It has been implied that both Arraez and Kepler could be available … just not sure on how MINN (or SD) values all the parts to make a balanced trade. The fact that it has yet to happen suggests the two sides are not on the same page.
Kim as a plus defense SS with an “average” bat should hold a lot of value in a league that is short of good SS.
Arraez is a quality on-base type hitter (little power) but not a good fielder where MINN is deploying him in LF/1B/DH. However, as the AL batting champ, MINN not giving him away.
Kepler is a plus defense OF … but after a great season a few years back … has not replicated that level and now a so-so hitter. However he (as most LHH) is being sold as rebounding offensively with the demise of the shift.
From both sides we don’t know which other teams are “interested” in those players. Sounds as though the NYY (at least) could be interested in Kepler and Kim. No idea if anyone is “interested” in Arraez.
Seems as though the basis of a trade between SD and MINN is there … just don’t know how they value the pieces and what they see still available through other moves that could make a better net for their team. No hurry, I guess, since the core offense for the Padres still would be one of the best if they stay pat.
#2542 · December 23, 2022, 6:23 am
Conforto to the Giants for 2/36m with an opt out.
#2543 · December 23, 2022, 6:26 am
Continuing the never ending underestimating of the price of FA …
Giants just signed Conforto for $36MM/2 years (with opt out after year 1) … a ton for someone who is a big unknown coming back for missing a season and injury. (Hope he passed the physical in SF).
Another win for Boras capitalizing on the desperation of the Giants after losing out on Correa.
#2544 · December 23, 2022, 7:20 am
I don't really get the Arraez talk. The rumor was that they would consider trading him for a top starter. I don't think falling short on Correa and Swanson means they'll now be looking to trade him for a SS. I love Kim and think he has a chance to get to Swanson's level, but he's not there yet. Correa is in a different league. Short of a top talent I think the Twins just roll with some combination of Farmer, Polanco and Gordon until Lewis gets back.
#2545 · December 23, 2022, 7:20 am
I am thinking no more FA.. maybe a trade or 2.. maybe a DFA pickup..
Ideally one of the young SP controlled we've been talking about..to be fair even NYY Schmidt (bumped out of the SP5 spot by Rodon) would be a solid move and he like Martinez/Lugo has BP exp...out of guys like that don't expect > 120 IP if not more like 105 IP.. so 10-15 starts and to the BP they go... Nick pitched well over 100 so he could easily go the distance 140-160 IP..30 starts if need be.. unless we get a Lopez(or other from Marlins).. Groome/Avila/Wethers/Teheran/Khner or other are going to have to give us 15-25 starts as a group..wether that's 1, 2 or all 5 of them combined will depend on how effective they are individually.. at least that's how I see the season breaking down
In 2022 for example... other than the 5.. Gore + Martinez combined for 23 starts.. and 5 others had 1 start each including Khner 1 and Wethers 1... thats strictly from the 6th and 7th SP slots.. so 28 starts... (of note is our top 5 didn't miss many starts in 2022..a few by Snell in April/May.. a few by Clev early on.. and late..and a few by Sean mostly by BoMel choice at the end..
SP 4 5 6 = 63 starts in 2022
Other SP = 15 starts (including 10 by Martinez)
So 4+5+6 + the rest = 78 starts in 2022 (3 were BP starts)
#2546 · December 23, 2022, 7:48 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2022, 7:20 amI don't really get the Arraez talk. The rumor was that they would consider trading him for a top starter. I don't think falling short on Correa and Swanson means they'll now be looking to trade him for a SS. I love Kim and think he has a chance to get to Swanson's level, but he's not there yet. Correa is in a different league. Short of a top talent I think the Twins just roll with some combination of Farmer, Polanco and Gordon until Lewis gets back.
Well the may have wanted to trade Arraez for a top SP ... bet they had no takers (and will have no takers). TOP SP is worth a lot more than a couple of years of a marginal defensive / low power hitter ... no matter that he is a very good hitter ... he could not secure a regular defensive position in MINN and has settled at 1B. Does not fit offensively the profile of a LF/1B and 2B really don't hold that much trade value as a general rule.
MINN signed Gallo and is making all the noise in wanting to contend in a weak AL Central ... Polanco at SS is not ideal. So wanting a SS makes sense.
Not saying an Arraez - Kim deal makes sense for either side but in the right deals ... both should be in play. Frankly with the Padres offense having Kim at 2B and Cronenworth at 1B for their defense given the shift going away adds a lot of value to them above their offensive contribution. I would keep both.
Have not done the research, but is the projected 13 man pitching staff a "ground ball" staff or a "fly ball" staff? Some special consideration should be with the RP who they may want to come in and induce a double play to get out of a jam. Something to consider to value INF defense.
#2547 · December 23, 2022, 7:49 am
In what world is Rogers worth 3/$33.. Rogers & Rogers law firm in SF = Runs & Runs for opponents
#2548 · December 23, 2022, 8:20 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2022, 7:48 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2022, 7:20 amI don't really get the Arraez talk. The rumor was that they would consider trading him for a top starter. I don't think falling short on Correa and Swanson means they'll now be looking to trade him for a SS. I love Kim and think he has a chance to get to Swanson's level, but he's not there yet. Correa is in a different league. Short of a top talent I think the Twins just roll with some combination of Farmer, Polanco and Gordon until Lewis gets back.
Well the may have wanted to trade Arraez for a top SP ... bet they had no takers (and will have no takers). TOP SP is worth a lot more than a couple of years of a marginal defensive / low power hitter ... no matter that he is a very good hitter ... he could not secure a regular defensive position in MINN and has settled at 1B. Does not fit offensively the profile of a LF/1B and 2B really don't hold that much trade value as a general rule.
MINN signed Gallo and is making all the noise in wanting to contend in a weak AL Central ... Polanco at SS is not ideal. So wanting a SS makes sense.
Not saying an Arraez - Kim deal makes sense for either side but in the right deals ... both should be in play. Frankly with the Padres offense having Kim at 2B and Cronenworth at 1B for their defense given the shift going away adds a lot of value to them above their offensive contribution. I would keep both.
Have not done the research, but is the projected 13 man pitching staff a "ground ball" staff or a "fly ball" staff? Some special consideration should be with the RP who they may want to come in and induce a double play to get out of a jam. Something to consider to value INF defense.
If we move Kim to Minn ..we need a > return than just Arraez.. yes the deal makes sense for both clubs...Arraez skill set His BAT fits perfectly at 1B/DH before the Fearsome Foursome or if Bo Mel prefersTatis causing havoc at #1 then protecting them at #5...
As valuable as Kim is Xander is a HOF and Crone a 2x back to back AS at 2B..so that alignment seems pretty natural.. we do have Rosario (who takes Kim's original utility role) as 3B/2B/SS bench guy (at the right $$ price for that role minimum/as Manny/Xander and Crone all play 150+ games season after season). Rosario playing 22 at 3B/ 22 at 2B and 22 at SS 250-275 PAs would feel right with the rested incumbents DH 10 or so times on days off their feet.. Defense doesn't suffer with Rosario either and he has a little more speed/power than Kim..
If we didn't have the potential power we do Arraez wouldn't make as much sense to us.. Kim gives the Twins one of the most cost effective AS like SS in baseball (besides guys in their 1st 4 yrs) and improves their defense up the middle greatly.maybe even improves it a tick over Correa's..again at 1/4 the cost.. Not sure where Twinkies are projected vs Central Division .contenders or pretenders but if they feel a little less than contenders perhaps we could expand the deal a bit to include Sonny Gray...and killed two birds with one stone..Kepler would be a 3rd piece ..but not sure we could pull that off if they include Gray
Jeremy Hill has reacted to this post.
Jeremy Hill
#2549 · December 23, 2022, 8:22 am
Unless the Padres truly believe they will not be able to get Ohtani before the deadline, they need to hold onto any and all top of the line prospects. Once they find out they don’t have what it would take to deal for ohtani then ship out the higher end prospects for plan B/C/D. Do whatever you can to keep him from NYM or LAD SF PHI ATL or STL. Then offer him a 12-13 year deal worth 600-650 mil. Too big of a gamble? Not sure if they can sign Cueto/Kluber/Wacha or if one of the AAA guys can come in and give us innings in a pinch.
The Boegarts deal was in my opinion much bigger than a lot of national media gurus made it out to be flexibility is key
#2550 · December 23, 2022, 8:29 am
Preller is in a bit of a box on the next add(s):
- really can't trade a starting position player without creating another hole ... and nothing internal to fill that hole
- really can't trade a near term prospect (there are not any that would get "quality" unless burdened with a large contract)
- could trade a TOP lower level prospect but same concern that would not get "quality" unless a burdensome contract while cutting into the future (be it with the Padres or in a couple of years when prospect is more proven as a trade chip).
So maybe can upgrade slightly with a trade but not significantly without taking on money ... if taking on money why not just sign a FA and keep the other assets?