Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 2:05 am

Kepler would be an interesting option via trade. MINN has a ton of OF and LHH so Kepler is clearly in play … no idea on the chips needed to land him (would not use Kim). RP is always needed and the Padres do have RP depth.

Kepler’s bat has been about “average” (just under 100 wRC+) but he is a plus defender in the OF. LHH. Did deliver (and is projected) a 2.0 WAR. Carrying a $8.5 MM salary for 2023 (and a club option for 2024 at $10MM) … in this market a fair price for 2.0 WAR.

Given the glut of MINN OF … Kepler’s contract … MAYBE he could be had with a package surrounding the likes of Knehr, Avila, Crismatt, Baez is some combo.

If the Padres extend Machado (no opt out) and add Kepler (exercise the club option) … the #1-9 offense would remain in tact for 2024 so the focus can be on pitching next winter. Apparently a down FA market next winter which would suggest some over paying FA to fill needs …. Kepler as an established veteran would be worth the $10 MM in 2024.

Next year's Market (2024) is "loaded" with SP (potentially).. Urias/Othani/Nola/Castillo/Yu/Snell/ Kershaw just off the top of my head

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:10 am

Starting Pitchers

Trevor Bauer (33)*
Matthew Boyd (33)
Carlos Carrasco (37)
Mike Clevinger (33)
Alex Cobb (36) – $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout*
Yu Darvish (37)
Jack Flaherty (28)
Chris Flexen (29)
Kyle Gibson (36)
Lucas Giolito (29)
Sonny Gray (34)
Andrew Heaney (33) – can opt out
Kyle Hendricks (34) – $16MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Jakob Junis (31)
Brad Keller (28)
Clayton Kershaw (36)
Michael Lorenzen (32)
Lance Lynn (37) – $18MM club option with a $1MM buyout*
Kenta Maeda (35)
Tyler Mahle (29)
Sean Manaea (32) – can opt out
German Marquez (29) – $16MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Nick Martinez (33) – two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, two-year, $16MM player option
John Means (31)
Miles Mikolas (35)
Frankie Montas (31)
Jordan Montgomery (31)
Charlie Morton (40) – $20MM club option
Aaron Nola (31)
Jake Odorizzi (34)*
Shohei Ohtani (29)
James Paxton (34)
Martin Perez (33)*
Eduardo Rodriguez (31) – can opt out of remaining three years and $49MM*
Hyun-Jin Ryu (37)*
Luis Severino (30)
Max Scherzer (39) – can opt out of remaining one year, $43,333,334*
Blake Snell (31)
Marcus Stroman (33) – can opt out of remaining one year, $21MM*
Noah Syndergaard (31)*
Jose Ureña (32) – $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Julio Urias (27)
Vince Velasquez (32)
Adam Wainwright (42)
Alex Wood (33)

2024 FA SP list... very strong SP class.. also a reference point for potential "deadline" acquisitions

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 5:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 2:05 am

Kepler would be an interesting option via trade. MINN has a ton of OF and LHH so Kepler is clearly in play … no idea on the chips needed to land him (would not use Kim). RP is always needed and the Padres do have RP depth.

Kepler’s bat has been about “average” (just under 100 wRC+) but he is a plus defender in the OF. LHH. Did deliver (and is projected) a 2.0 WAR. Carrying a $8.5 MM salary for 2023 (and a club option for 2024 at $10MM) … in this market a fair price for 2.0 WAR.

Given the glut of MINN OF … Kepler’s contract … MAYBE he could be had with a package surrounding the likes of Knehr, Avila, Crismatt, Baez is some combo.

If the Padres extend Machado (no opt out) and add Kepler (exercise the club option) … the #1-9 offense would remain in tact for 2024 so the focus can be on pitching next winter. Apparently a down FA market next winter which would suggest some over paying FA to fill needs …. Kepler as an established veteran would be worth the $10 MM in 2024.

Next year's Market (2024) is "loaded" with SP (potentially).. Urias/Othani/Nola/Castillo/Yu/Snell/ Kershaw just off the top of my head

For good or bad … the SP market has to become the playground for the Padres with Darvish, Snell clear FA and likely Martinez and Lugo if they are good (or I guess if they are bad). Trying to sign 3-4 FA SP (that is good SP) to replace those four will be a challenge and expensive.

The depth of quality position players seems lighter than this year making prices probably up.

Sort of why trying to get that 9th hitter / OF now and for more than one year may be wise taking out trying fill that slot again next winter.

Better hope that some of the internal SP develop to take pressure signing FA pitchers. Doubt Siedler / Preller can convince and pay enough against the 29 other teams to get four quality SP when you consider the Padres (for CBT purposes) are currently 3rd highest (behind NYM and NYY) and with them the only teams in the penalty zone.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 6:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 5:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 2:05 am

Kepler would be an interesting option via trade. MINN has a ton of OF and LHH so Kepler is clearly in play … no idea on the chips needed to land him (would not use Kim). RP is always needed and the Padres do have RP depth.

Kepler’s bat has been about “average” (just under 100 wRC+) but he is a plus defender in the OF. LHH. Did deliver (and is projected) a 2.0 WAR. Carrying a $8.5 MM salary for 2023 (and a club option for 2024 at $10MM) … in this market a fair price for 2.0 WAR.

Given the glut of MINN OF … Kepler’s contract … MAYBE he could be had with a package surrounding the likes of Knehr, Avila, Crismatt, Baez is some combo.

If the Padres extend Machado (no opt out) and add Kepler (exercise the club option) … the #1-9 offense would remain in tact for 2024 so the focus can be on pitching next winter. Apparently a down FA market next winter which would suggest some over paying FA to fill needs …. Kepler as an established veteran would be worth the $10 MM in 2024.

Next year's Market (2024) is "loaded" with SP (potentially).. Urias/Othani/Nola/Castillo/Yu/Snell/ Kershaw just off the top of my head

For good or bad … the SP market has to become the playground for the Padres with Darvish, Snell clear FA and likely Martinez and Lugo if they are good (or I guess if they are bad). Trying to sign 3-4 FA SP (that is good SP) to replace those four will be a challenge and expensive.

The depth of quality position players seems lighter than this year making prices probably up.

Sort of why trying to get that 9th hitter / OF now and for more than one year may be wise taking out trying fill that slot again next winter.

Better hope that some of the internal SP develop to take pressure signing FA pitchers. Doubt Siedler / Preller can convince and pay enough against the 29 other teams to get four quality SP when you consider the Padres (for CBT purposes) are currently 3rd highest (behind NYM and NYY) and with them the only teams in the penalty zone.

We sort of have Martinez locked.. if he is Good 2/32.. if he is mediocre/bad he has a player 2/16... so for 2024 1. JOE 2. MARTINEZ... 3. ? 4. ? 5 ? 6 ?.... Would Love to extend Yu... and for ONE of Groome/Avila/Wethers/and Co. (Controlled 5-6yrs) to claim #5 or #6 would be Huge... low key add Cienfuegos and Wolf will be in the mix as well for 2024

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 6:43 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 6:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 5:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 2:05 am

Kepler would be an interesting option via trade. MINN has a ton of OF and LHH so Kepler is clearly in play … no idea on the chips needed to land him (would not use Kim). RP is always needed and the Padres do have RP depth.

Kepler’s bat has been about “average” (just under 100 wRC+) but he is a plus defender in the OF. LHH. Did deliver (and is projected) a 2.0 WAR. Carrying a $8.5 MM salary for 2023 (and a club option for 2024 at $10MM) … in this market a fair price for 2.0 WAR.

Given the glut of MINN OF … Kepler’s contract … MAYBE he could be had with a package surrounding the likes of Knehr, Avila, Crismatt, Baez is some combo.

If the Padres extend Machado (no opt out) and add Kepler (exercise the club option) … the #1-9 offense would remain in tact for 2024 so the focus can be on pitching next winter. Apparently a down FA market next winter which would suggest some over paying FA to fill needs …. Kepler as an established veteran would be worth the $10 MM in 2024.

Next year's Market (2024) is "loaded" with SP (potentially).. Urias/Othani/Nola/Castillo/Yu/Snell/ Kershaw just off the top of my head

For good or bad … the SP market has to become the playground for the Padres with Darvish, Snell clear FA and likely Martinez and Lugo if they are good (or I guess if they are bad). Trying to sign 3-4 FA SP (that is good SP) to replace those four will be a challenge and expensive.

The depth of quality position players seems lighter than this year making prices probably up.

Sort of why trying to get that 9th hitter / OF now and for more than one year may be wise taking out trying fill that slot again next winter.

Better hope that some of the internal SP develop to take pressure signing FA pitchers. Doubt Siedler / Preller can convince and pay enough against the 29 other teams to get four quality SP when you consider the Padres (for CBT purposes) are currently 3rd highest (behind NYM and NYY) and with them the only teams in the penalty zone.

We sort of have Martinez locked.. if he is Good 2/32.. if he is mediocre/bad he has a player 2/16... so for 2024 1. JOE 2. MARTINEZ... 3. ? 4. ? 5 ? 6 ?.... Would Love to extend Yu... and for ONE of Groome/Avila/Wethers/and Co. (Controlled 5-6yrs) to claim #5 or #6 would be Huge... low key add Cienfuegos and Wolf will be in the mix as well for 2024

If Martinez is very good $16MM is fair for a SP but if he is bad do the Padres really want him as a SP (even at $8MM) or at best a #5. How good does Martinez have to pitch to be worth $16MM?

If Snell and Darvish pitch to what we hope the can … extensions likely will be in the $20MM AAV zone (unless really pitch to Cy Young level then >). That is quite a jump in payroll to stay in the same place. Musgrove is locked in at $20MM. If Martinez does earn the $16MM and Lugo opts out (which he will if he is an effective starter) … in combination … that should be about a plus $20MM before dealing with replacing Lugo.

Soto and Cronenworth should get large ARB increases and they will have to deal with replacing (or re-signing) Hader - Pomeranz - Garcia. Bottom line the payroll looks to be going up to stay in the same place.

So, Padres should be trying to integrate some league minimum prospects to some degree in 2023 to help developing the 2024 roster.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 7:11 am

I think a 4.25 ERA 25-30 starts 140 IP leads to SDP picking up the 2/32 on Martinez

I am also thinking a "Trade" for a Luzardo (or alike) controlled young SP with some upside is 💯  a must for SDP.. if not now ..at the deadline or in the offseason

1. JOE

2.

3. LUZARDO

4. MARTINEZ

5.

6. GROOME (hopefully one of the Internal options is that 120 IP 8-8 4.50 ERA #6 )

 

Looks a lot easier to deal with in 2024 than

1. JOE

2.

3.

4. MARTINEZ

5.

6.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 7:26 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 6:43 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 6:11 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 5:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 5:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 2:05 am

Kepler would be an interesting option via trade. MINN has a ton of OF and LHH so Kepler is clearly in play … no idea on the chips needed to land him (would not use Kim). RP is always needed and the Padres do have RP depth.

Kepler’s bat has been about “average” (just under 100 wRC+) but he is a plus defender in the OF. LHH. Did deliver (and is projected) a 2.0 WAR. Carrying a $8.5 MM salary for 2023 (and a club option for 2024 at $10MM) … in this market a fair price for 2.0 WAR.

Given the glut of MINN OF … Kepler’s contract … MAYBE he could be had with a package surrounding the likes of Knehr, Avila, Crismatt, Baez is some combo.

If the Padres extend Machado (no opt out) and add Kepler (exercise the club option) … the #1-9 offense would remain in tact for 2024 so the focus can be on pitching next winter. Apparently a down FA market next winter which would suggest some over paying FA to fill needs …. Kepler as an established veteran would be worth the $10 MM in 2024.

Next year's Market (2024) is "loaded" with SP (potentially).. Urias/Othani/Nola/Castillo/Yu/Snell/ Kershaw just off the top of my head

For good or bad … the SP market has to become the playground for the Padres with Darvish, Snell clear FA and likely Martinez and Lugo if they are good (or I guess if they are bad). Trying to sign 3-4 FA SP (that is good SP) to replace those four will be a challenge and expensive.

The depth of quality position players seems lighter than this year making prices probably up.

Sort of why trying to get that 9th hitter / OF now and for more than one year may be wise taking out trying fill that slot again next winter.

Better hope that some of the internal SP develop to take pressure signing FA pitchers. Doubt Siedler / Preller can convince and pay enough against the 29 other teams to get four quality SP when you consider the Padres (for CBT purposes) are currently 3rd highest (behind NYM and NYY) and with them the only teams in the penalty zone.

We sort of have Martinez locked.. if he is Good 2/32.. if he is mediocre/bad he has a player 2/16... so for 2024 1. JOE 2. MARTINEZ... 3. ? 4. ? 5 ? 6 ?.... Would Love to extend Yu... and for ONE of Groome/Avila/Wethers/and Co. (Controlled 5-6yrs) to claim #5 or #6 would be Huge... low key add Cienfuegos and Wolf will be in the mix as well for 2024

If Martinez is very good $16MM is fair for a SP but if he is bad do the Padres really want him as a SP (even at $8MM) or at best a #5. How good does Martinez have to pitch to be worth $16MM?

If Snell and Darvish pitch to what we hope the can … extensions likely will be in the $20MM AAV zone (unless really pitch to Cy Young level then >). That is quite a jump in payroll to stay in the same place. Musgrove is locked in at $20MM. If Martinez does earn the $16MM and Lugo opts out (which he will if he is an effective starter) … in combination … that should be about a plus $20MM before dealing with replacing Lugo.

Soto and Cronenworth should get large ARB increases and they will have to deal with replacing (or re-signing) Hader - Pomeranz - Garcia. Bottom line the payroll looks to be going up to stay in the same place.

So, Padres should be trying to integrate some league minimum prospects to some degree in 2023 to help developing the 2024 roster.

 

I think Merrill will be ready for 2024.. facing AA and AAA SP and BP arms in Arizona didn't face him at all... the sad news is that makes Jake or Kim (unless they opt not to bring Manny back) expendable...

If Campy can nail down C #2 and challenge Nola for #1 ..that could go a long way in reducing costs (Nola could be in line for $4mil in 2024)..

One thought for me ..if we win it all in 2023.. is to keep Manny, extend Soto... But trade Tatis (especially if he has a Tatis like yr) not for prospects but for MLB ready or young controllable players.. could a 3 or 4 way team trade say for Tatis  next offseason.. net us SP Luzardo/1B/DH/2B Arraez/ OF Keppler and C Kirk??? Would you trade Tatis for those 4?.. is our team better - Tatis + (the 4) with Soto/Manny and Xander or is Soto the one you trade for a similar package..?

Some hard ?? but unless Siedler can sustain $280 mil for 23 /2024 and 2025... BY 2026 we should have the SP (at least 4 of the 6 spots controlled by rookies/2nd and/or 3rd yr controlled cheap arms ) to reset CBT which should be near $250 tier one by then...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 20, 2022, 7:38 am

Way I see the BP evolution

Hader replaced by Suarez in 2024

Pomz doesn't need to be replaced as he is a luxury now.. we were fine without him in 22

Garcia gets replaced by Wilson

We won't have the luxury of 2 closer Hader/Suarez... But we will have a lot of power arms (Hoping Lopez works out/Castillo/Baez/Cosgrove (can he be Wilson 22 in 23?)/ Lugo (our milb one)/Morejon/Felipe/ etc.. etc..so maybe we can get away with a younger talented but inexperienced BP in 2024.. or simply add 1 or 2 lowish ($3mil per) guys to support the youth

We could pivot from dominant BP to just Good BP in 24 (1st half) and then adjust accordingly at deadline

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2022, 7:41 am

Seems like MIA is most willing to move Lopez before any of their other SP options. Very good but only 2 years control and getting expensive … not sure what entices MIA to move him.

Plus should not rule out Morejon in 2024 … he has the stuff to succeed and needs to prove it works as a SP in 2023 while stretching out. As with Groome … low cost so even if they are 4.00-5.00 ERA types … for a #4-6 SP that works even on a contender with the chance one can jump to mid-rotation status. If nothing else it allows the Padres to aim more money towards adding an upper rotation piece.

For 2023 Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, and Morejon as the starting 6 TO START the season. Pretty sure no absolute commitment to start the last three but expect the signing of Martinez and Lugo came with an understanding they will start to be given the shot to prove themselves. Padres (Preller) would lose a lot of credibility with agents if they added another SP that bumps one of them out before they got their chance … harder to sign FA in the future.

IF they need a SP later … a trade deadline move is in Preller’s wheel house. However, that trade deadline need may be more critical to add a catcher, OF, etc. With limited trade chips / money need to wait until you see the whites of their eyes before pulling the trigger.