Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2022, 4:06 pm

Give Suarez 2/$16 to stay.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2022, 4:29 pm

Position players in theory.

We know we have the following. Machado, Kim, and Crone for the INF. Soto and Grisham for the OF. And at C, Nola and Alfaro. So that fills 3B, SS, 2B, RF, CF, and C.

We then need to decide on whether the following are ML or 4A bats, Campusano, Azocar, Dixon, and Rosario. That will help decide where we need help when it comes to filling spots. My thought, is that all 4 are probably 4A bats. So maybe bench help at best.

We THINK Tatis will be back in late April/early May (as long as he doesnt hurt something or do something stupid again), so that can fill an OF spot, but still need to get through the first 30 days or so.

So we could start the season with an OF of Profar/Azocar/Grisham mix and Soto. Then upon the return of Tatis we would go Tatis, Grisham/Azocar, Soto with Profar returning to super sub spot.

DH can be a rest rotation spot. Basically leaving SD needing a 1B (not Profar as someone suggested). Unfortunately the 1B FAs look pretty bleak, especially since Bell has stunk it up in SD.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 4, 2022, 4:59 pm

BP has (ready for 2023 and controlled

Castillo/Baez/Cosgrove/Felipe/Lugo/Cristmat/Adams(60)/Garcia/Morejon/Hader/Wilson/Jakob/Hill/Pomz(60)/Knerr

With Martinez/Suarez options.. PENDING

So no need to ADD in FA ...need LOW.. can still allocate $$ here if Martinez/Suarez and Johnson all leave..but not a need as internal options are many

SP

1. YU..2. SNELL 3. MUSGROVE

4-5-6.. As of now Groome/Wethers/Avila/Knher (note all 4 could also be in the BP game)

Opt in Martinez (again) .

FA need ..extremely HIGh.. #4 is a stud need

Resign possibility Celvinger

FA targets.. depending on $$ and what Siedler goals are for 2023..1)Degroom huge $$.. Rodon/Bissett/Anderson etc.. at decent $$.. SENGA (JPN) maybe the best option value and P wise for a great #4 or out of this world #5 .. could probably bring back Clev and Add Senga for < $$ combined vs some of the others

NEED - Pretty High..especially with 2024 and beyond as a factor

 

I figure Profar/Tatis/Soto in OF

2B/3B/SS Crone/Manny/Kim

C Alfaro/Nola/Campy

 

So 1B/DH and Bench covered with 4 players.. Azocar/Grish perfect 4th OF types Speed/Def and Pop from left side (Trent)

Dixon/Rosario/Batten/ST invites could be in play for a spot or AAA depth

Ideally One of Myers/Bell/Drury comes back

Targets in FA can range from pricey Judge/Xander to less expensive options like Nimmo/Benintendi/ to cheaper short term guys Joc/Peralta/Abreu/.Abreva.. to C like Vazquez (turning to trading Campy and/or non tendering Alfaro or exchanging Alfaro with Voit (who fills a need and Wash might non tender ) so trade them for each other vs releasing..

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 8:27 am

On a positive note for SP … the three returning SP were among the best in 2022. For SP with greater than 100 innings, based on WAR among the 122 pitchers,

#13. Darvish (4.2) in 194 innings

#26. Snell (3.7) in 128 innings

#31. Musgrove (3.5) in 181 innings

Three out of the top 31 will win the Padres a lot of games with some offense.

However, based on the same look, may not be eager to re-sign Clevinger or Manaea. May be able to get better production for a lower price … at least that should be considered.

#95. Manaea (1.0) in 153 innings

#117. Clevinger (0.4) in 117 innings

Clevinger has the high ceiling but offset that with his history of various injuries limiting both innings pitched and spotty effectiveness. Fallback at a low price might make sense for the upside (and considering the need and lack of alternatives) … but step away from a big commitment.

For me a reliable 4th SP is a key for the 162 games season … then roll the dice on the 5th/6th SP with the internal candidates (Morejon / Groome) or a low cost veteran FA that is a reliable innings eater.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 8:43 am

I still fully think that we will see Clevinger resign with SD. I am sure that he will get some sort of knee clean up over the winter, and I then fully expect him to be the "guy" that we initially traded for originally in 2023 and beyond.

I dont think any team will max out a package for him, and I think he likes it here in SD. So I think a 3 year deal, that will have incentives based on starts or innings. Probably ranging in that $10-12M a year range for 3 years, keeping him in SD through 2025.

And then, with the time frame for the recently drafted kids to reach SD, and his current performance level, would not be surprised to see some sort of extension for Darvish, basically rewriting his 2023 number, to give SD some CBT room for 2023 and beyond.

For the veteran FA innings eater, IF Manaea comes back on the cheap (around $5M or less) it could be him. I would be real comfortable with Zach Davies around $2-3M, after that, I would need to peruse the FA list on MLBTR to find other viable options.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 8:52 am

When it comes to position players, we need either a LFer, or a 1B. Profar IMO needs to go back to super sub. His bat is not viable as a full time player IMO, especially in LF or 1B.

So with that in mind, via FA (since we have very few trade pieces left), would it be easier to find a LFer or a 1B?

If you believe it would be easier to find a LFer, then you could start the season with Kim at SS, Rosario at 2B, and Crone at 1B. Then upon the return of Tatis, he would take SS, Kim slides to 2B, and Crone stays at 1B. If this is the direction, I would let Crone know at the end of the season, so he could train/work out with the idea of being a 1B.

If you believe its easier to find a 1B (preferably LHH), then you would start the season with our current INF of Machado, Kim, Crone, and TBD at 1B. Then in the OF, start the season with a mix of Soto and Grisham/Azocar/Dixon/Profar. Then with the return of Tatis, you have Tatis in LF, Grisham/Azocar in CF, and Soto in RF.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2022, 9:16 am

Clevinger, as reflected in his 2022 stats, will likely not be paid as the #1 or #2 for a borderline contending team and may not even be paid as a #3 for a higher ranked contending team.  Sure he was coming off his second TJ surgery and had not pitched for awhile but the Padres did everything to ease him into the rotation and he essentially fumed out after his 7 or 8th start after starting out strongly, borne out by his awful September.  All his pitching indicators were down as the year progressed and far from his career averages.

For that reason, he could be seeking a re-establishment year at around 9-10M with a club or mutual option for around 15M in the second year - buyout probably something like 2M.  Not sure he will be offered that 3rd year after his performance this year.  However, as the #4 starter in San Diego, he has a very good chance for a bounce-back year if he gets healthier and we know he loves it here.  I predict the chances are more than 50% that he re-signs with San Diego, fairly early in the free agent period, with those options cited above.  Padres need to know what their budget is going to be ASAP and whether or not Clevinger re-signs will impact what they do in the off-season.

Doubt Manaea will sign for 5M given his agent is Boras - we will likely move on to a cheaper FA starter and Davies would be a good inexpensive alternative for the #5 spot.  I can see Groome, Knehr and even Avila (if not lost to free agency) competing for that #6.

Darkhorse would be Martinez at #'s 4-6 starter if he does't opt out - hard to judge his value at more than 6.5M given the many roles he had this year and varying degrees of effectiveness as a starter.  His inning were pretty much split between starting and relief appearances but much more effective in relief.  I like him more as a long man or occasional piggyback starter out of the pen.  This is another key roster move for the Padres and they could try make some adjustments in his current contract to try to keep him here, giving him a little more money to renegotiate the opt-outs for at least one more year in San Diego.  It really depends on how Martinez views himself and his future.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 9:22 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 8:43 am

I still fully think that we will see Clevinger resign with SD. I am sure that he will get some sort of knee clean up over the winter, and I then fully expect him to be the "guy" that we initially traded for originally in 2023 and beyond.

I dont think any team will max out a package for him, and I think he likes it here in SD. So I think a 3 year deal, that will have incentives based on starts or innings. Probably ranging in that $10-12M a year range for 3 years, keeping him in SD through 2025.

And then, with the time frame for the recently drafted kids to reach SD, and his current performance level, would not be surprised to see some sort of extension for Darvish, basically rewriting his 2023 number, to give SD some CBT room for 2023 and beyond.

For the veteran FA innings eater, IF Manaea comes back on the cheap (around $5M or less) it could be him. I would be real comfortable with Zach Davies around $2-3M, after that, I would need to peruse the FA list on MLBTR to find other viable options.

I can't imagine any team giving Clevinger a 3 year deal given his injury history and age (32 next season). More likely a one year deal with an option / incentives based on innings (depending on the salary). Plus hard to see anything over his current $8MM salary. Time is passing on his upside ... been quite a while since he had a complete season.

I agree that given what Darvish has done ... and the Padres sense that 23-24 with Soto added to Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Kim, Musgrove ... they will push to extend him. He seem healthy these days and clearly effective. However, those same factors would argue for Darvish not dropping much (if at all) and maybe wanting more than his current salary. Clearly Scherzer and Verlander did not come down.

I still think the Padres will opt for the SP who they project as the best production at the lowest cost ... no sentiment about Clevinger or Manaea. That may mean pay more but for much better production ... sort of a cost / benefit balance.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 5, 2022, 9:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2022, 9:22 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2022, 8:43 am

I still fully think that we will see Clevinger resign with SD. I am sure that he will get some sort of knee clean up over the winter, and I then fully expect him to be the "guy" that we initially traded for originally in 2023 and beyond.

I dont think any team will max out a package for him, and I think he likes it here in SD. So I think a 3 year deal, that will have incentives based on starts or innings. Probably ranging in that $10-12M a year range for 3 years, keeping him in SD through 2025.

And then, with the time frame for the recently drafted kids to reach SD, and his current performance level, would not be surprised to see some sort of extension for Darvish, basically rewriting his 2023 number, to give SD some CBT room for 2023 and beyond.

For the veteran FA innings eater, IF Manaea comes back on the cheap (around $5M or less) it could be him. I would be real comfortable with Zach Davies around $2-3M, after that, I would need to peruse the FA list on MLBTR to find other viable options.

I can't imagine any team giving Clevinger a 3 year deal given his injury history and age (32 next season). More likely a one year deal with an option / incentives based on innings (depending on the salary). Plus hard to see anything over his current $8MM salary. Time is passing on his upside ... been quite a while since he had a complete season.

I agree that given what Darvish has done ... and the Padres sense that 23-24 with Soto added to Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Kim, Musgrove ... they will push to extend him. He seem healthy these days and clearly effective. However, those same factors would argue for Darvish not dropping much (if at all) and maybe wanting more than his current salary. Clearly Scherzer and Verlander did not come down.

I still think the Padres will opt for the SP who they project as the best production at the lowest cost ... no sentiment about Clevinger or Manaea. That may mean pay more but for much better production ... sort of a cost / benefit balance.

Wouldn't rule out a Snellzilla extension