Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 10:30 am

I've heard two separate broadcasts now LAD and WhiteSox announcers ..say Kim will be 23 SS 💯  and Tatis CF..is this what the Padres are feeding the visiting media? WAR wise CF is easy the highest upside from its current level to Tatis..probably +5 to +7 or more WAR..so it makes sense..anyway just something to keepnan eye out for heading into the offseason after we win 13 post season games!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 7:04 pm

,281 .358 .543 .900 vs RHP 21 HRs.. 321 AB... Joc Pederson LHB makes a ton of sense .. as a left handed platoon LF.. he has under 50 AB's vs LHP in 2022.. BUT that's why he is a low cost guy.. 1 yr $6mil in 2022..but an All Star so maybe 2+1 $30mil ($10per)..

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 8:00 am

MLBTR in the midst of reviewing the FA this winter position by position.

In today’s review of 3B … they have Drury as the second best FA (behind Arenado) … that should create some market (coupled with his 2022 stats). As I recall, they also mentioned him in the 1B and 2B options.

Bottom line the versatility of position and his 2022 stats should get him in demand … and a much larger contract.

Will be interesting to see how the Padres prioritize spending (which I project to be already close to the tax threshold) as they go over and need to address the loss of 2 SP and 1B/DH (one or two) before even considering upgrades at other positions.

Is Drury high enough priority? Are there better alternatives?

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 8:23 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 3, 2022, 7:04 pm

,281 .358 .543 .900 vs RHP 21 HRs.. 321 AB... Joc Pederson LHB makes a ton of sense .. as a left handed platoon LF.. he has under 50 AB's vs LHP in 2022.. BUT that's why he is a low cost guy.. 1 yr $6mil in 2022..but an All Star so maybe 2+1 $30mil ($10per)..

Too much (too long) a contract for a guy coming off a career year at age 30.

Look a bit more on his FA year going into 2022 and he could only get a 1 year deal for $6MM … probably reflects more how the league values him … 2022 might have boosted him some but not that much.

Also with Tatis returning (and probably in the OF with Soto) … both will play full time … not sure would spend on a “part-time” OF/DH over a full-time option in another position of need. If they want a LHH OF … might they be better off targeting Benintendi? Also have to deal with Profar who will probably not opt out … and will be paid a healthy sum … is he the new 1B?

I am guessing that if the Padres sign a FA for a big contract it will be for a clear full time player (probably not DH) … then the “part-time” / bench players will be at league minimum (or close to it) out of what they have and maybe the low end FA (Mazara type signings).

Expect the Padres to have a larger payroll than 2022 and an all time high even with limiting the FA signings.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 4, 2022, 8:32 am

Bo Mel said he is leaning towards a 14 position 12 Pitcher roster for WC 3 games

Dixon 2 more games + post season heroics? Could answer at least a 2023 Bench role if not DH/1B

So A) Drury back at a solid but not crazy 4yr deal (3+1)

B) Wil + Joc R/L platoon at 1B/DH/LF (with Profar and Dixon in the mix) probably = $$ to just Drury/<Bell combined

C) Bell probably asks for the most $$

I think B is the way to go depth wise.. A more flexibility but would still require a LHB for the bench (a current hole)..C I just don't see it for the $$ he is going to get and the #'s he has put up in SD

B would be most difficult cause if Wil wants a 1 yr to re-establish $$ value SD is the worst place to do that.. Think A would be easiest..seems like Drury really likes it here..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 4, 2022, 8:39 am

Don't rule out a Xander signing.. AJP absolutely loves him..and that kind of bat is a lineup balancing stick.. can play 2B/SS and DH with Crone playing more 1B/2B

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 9:50 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 4, 2022, 8:39 am

Don't rule out a Xander signing.. AJP absolutely loves him..and that kind of bat is a lineup balancing stick.. can play 2B/SS and DH with Crone playing more 1B/2B

Can (would) the Padres spring for an 8 year $200-240MM ($25-30MM AAV) contract for a 30 year old INF while having long term commitments to Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove ... and probably wanting to extend Soto while having no SP (other than Musgrove) past 2023?

For the price of Bogarts ... could add two or three very good regulars on shorter deals creating a better chance of contending again in 2023.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2022, 11:09 am

I don't expect any big moves for bats....other than possibly re-signing one or more of our own guys Myers/Bell/Drury.

If anything we need to use any $$ Ownership is willing to spend to find a Starter or Two for the next 2-3 seasons.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2022, 11:50 am

Agree that SP may be the priority.

At least the offense should have Machado - Tatis - Soto as an elite corp ... probably should include Croneworth even with the low BA he is driving in runs (2nd to Manny on the team). Then Profar (will opt to stay) - Kim - Nola are serviceable for the next group and that is seven of nine. That is as good as most teams throw out there. Then the last two slots may get by with gambles on low end FA (or the internal options). CINN got lucky with Drury and Mazara was OK in his fill in stint.

However, SP is Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove followed by a plunge into the abyss. Maybe gambling on one of the two remaining starting slots is in the cards (Morejon - Martinez - Groome) and to cover the 6th slot and injury replacement but that is not enough to cover two slots on a contender plus injury coverage. In this case not sure want to go cheap for the 4th SP ... maybe on the 5th if needed.

Now can they get any quality SP to sign? What cost? Rodon (BIG money) ... Bassitt (very good money) ... not sure who else is a QUALITY FA ... is Clevinger a back-up plan?

Beyond how much they are willing to spend over the threshold ... have to consider how long they pursue option A if that option is dragging out the negotiations (something Boras likes to do) before the pivot to option B, C before those options go elsewhere ... they are not waiting for SD to make up their minds.