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2023 offseason

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Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2022, 9:57 am

Using Fangraphs and their ranking of the unsigned FA pitchers;

Projected WAR - Player - est AAV / yrs (and based on signings AAV is probably light by $4MM:

4.7 … Rodon … 27 for 5 with QO (but ask is 30 for 7)

2.5 … Bassitt … 16 for 3 with QO

2.4 … Eovaldi … 15 for 2 with QO

1.9 … Manaea … 11 for 2

I know you dont like Cueto for some reason. However, Baseballreference had his 2022 WAR at 3.5 and Fangraphs WAR 2022 for Cueto was 2.4. Fangraphs ranked Cueto as their #32 FA, ahead of Heaney, Strippling, and Clevenger. And Cueto threw 158 innings last season at an ERA of 3.35, better than either Clevenger or Manaea. Fangraphs does predict a drop off, not sure why, but I would look at him over some others. They predict an AAV of somewhere between $10.8-12M per one season.

Brian Anderson could be a good fit. He plays a good RF and has been a good hitter when healthy. He could play RF for the first 20 games. Then he could transition to a primary DH role and fill in at 1B, 3B, and in the outfield corners as needed. It would also give us some protection if Grisham's offensive struggles continue. He could be the everyday guy in RF with Tatis in CF in that scenario.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 11, 2022, 4:52 pm

Brian Anderson could be a good fit. He plays a good RF and has been a good hitter when healthy. He could play RF for the first 20 games. Then he could transition to a primary DH role and fill in at 1B, 3B, and in the outfield corners as needed. It would also give us some protection if Grisham's offensive struggles continue. He could be the everyday guy in RF with Tatis in CF in that scenario.

When healthy is the key ... and he has not been healthy for a few years ... left shoulder issues and back. Coming off his poorest season in 2022. I like (or should say liked) him a lot but a lot would depend on what he is holding out for to sign. The injury history would worry me if the deal was a larger contract.

Now IF he is not getting much traction ... while wanting to get major playing time to rebuild his FA value ... maybe a 1 year deal with game incentives and some sort of 2024 option (maybe a minor league deal like Teheran). Padres can clearly demonstrate they have a "regular" spot for him as the 9th hitter / #1 bench option. Excluding last season basically mid-.300 OBP with little power but versatile and as I recall decent defense with a big arm.

So, I would sign him if the contract was right ... but for now he is probably trying for a team that gives him a better chance of starting no matter whether or not he struggles.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 11, 2022, 4:10 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2022, 9:57 am

Using Fangraphs and their ranking of the unsigned FA pitchers;

Projected WAR - Player - est AAV / yrs (and based on signings AAV is probably light by $4MM:

4.7 … Rodon … 27 for 5 with QO (but ask is 30 for 7)

2.5 … Bassitt … 16 for 3 with QO

2.4 … Eovaldi … 15 for 2 with QO

1.9 … Manaea … 11 for 2

I know you dont like Cueto for some reason. However, Baseballreference had his 2022 WAR at 3.5 and Fangraphs WAR 2022 for Cueto was 2.4. Fangraphs ranked Cueto as their #32 FA, ahead of Heaney, Strippling, and Clevenger. And Cueto threw 158 innings last season at an ERA of 3.35, better than either Clevenger or Manaea. Fangraphs does predict a drop off, not sure why, but I would look at him over some others. They predict an AAV of somewhere between $10.8-12M per one season.

Nothing intrinsically against Cueto. My guess is that Fangraphs is noting his velocity is down to about 91MPH and is not missing bats as he used to do ... at 35 might be seeing 2022 as a aberration in his return from TJ a few years back.

Again a lot depends on his contract demand which I suspect at this point is a lot more than the prediction as he tries to capitalize on his 2022 ... probably seeking a multi-year deal given the shortage of SP while a lot of teams are still looking for SP.

Sean signs 2yrs $25 mil with Giants

I was with fenn on looking at Menea, but my goodness, not for that contract.

Quote from Notmyopic on December 12, 2022, 3:25 am

I was with fenn on looking at Menea, but my goodness, not for that contract.

It is the state of the market. MLBTR predicted $52MM/4 years ($13MM AAV). Fangraphs had him at $22MM/2 years … pretty much on target.

So, in the mind of some, Giants got a bargain at $25MM/2. Remember Boyd and Gibson got $10MM for lesser 2022 performance.

Looks as though that $10-13MM zone is the market for that next group of pitchers w/o QO.

Maybe what is more interesting is that it did not appear that the Padres were pursuing him … at least no rumors.

We could (should) see more action on the remaining SP this week now that the Senga saga has ended. Teams who are not in on Rodon but want a SP have to bear down signing the others as the supply dwindles and don’t want to be left out. Players might now also get more serious seeing the same landscape and recognizing the most motivated teams want closure and should pay the better price. Sort of at the point considering the remain arms … where option A is little different than option B so teams will have the freedom to play one vs the other … see the best deal … get it done.

Given this is Preller and he was probably on hold for signing a SP until the Senga decision (the superior option), and he already had discussions with the agents for the other options and set his priorities … could happen quickly.

Kind of intrigued by Seth Lugo as an option.. perhaps with a guy like Davies as well... remember we also have Teheran /Wethers/Avila/Groome/Khner/Poppen/etc.. with very low bars (Sean and Clev's 2022 seasons) to clear/improve on

 

Post season wise .. Lugo/Martinez become those BP dudes everyone loves to have

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 12, 2022, 2:56 am

Sean signs 2yrs $25 mil with Giants

So we will get to launch off him a couple of times this season. No way he holds this SD line up to less than 4 or 5 runs.

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