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2023 offseason
#1881 · December 11, 2022, 6:04 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2022, 6:00 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on December 11, 2022, 5:12 amI'd go after Lugo or Strippling at this point t and invite Cole Hamels to ST
Might also consider Kluber as a veteran who pitched innings reasonably effectively last season.
With the offense (especially if they get that 9th regular bat) and a very strong bullpen should do a lot to not require a top pitcher after the big 3 … just “serviceable” arm that can stay healthy and give they 5-6 innings. Mid-4 ERA type.
Given Martinez is the 4th …the 5th/6th FOR NOW is between Teheran, Morejon, Avila, Groome, Knehr … maybe a mix of all of the above. Pretty safe bet that the Padres make at least one veteran add and likely another “Teheran type” veteran rebound candidate.
Wouldn’t rule out a trade … but not for top SP (really don’t have the trade chips without creating other holes) … what they can get for one (or two) of the “surplus” RP and Rosario. Given number of RP that are without options and some will have to go before the season (especially if some of the RP with options are actually better) converting some into a serviceable SP makes.
Oh yeh, Manaea is still out there.
Manaea had an expected first half and woudl good with that version of him. It's his second half where he imploded. Is that fixable? Was it mechanics? We know what the results were but that was a very drastic cratering.
#1882 · December 11, 2022, 6:07 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2022, 5:54 amI find it hard to believe….after all we’ve spent…that we go into 2023 with a combo of Martinez/Teheran/Groome as our last two starters.
I could be wrong….but considering we were in on Senga I doubt we just close the wallet and go homes now.
Pretty sure you are right … just running out of options that can be relied upon to be a #4-5 … and getting any of those few to sign will be a challenge.
At this stage (and considering the options) … really can’t afford to go with injury risks or arms that can’t give innings.
Wonder if the KBO Rucinski is on their radar … he seems to have stayed healthy and pitch innings in Korea … and reasonable effective. No idea on his price tag.
#1883 · December 11, 2022, 7:36 am
Quote from lafnboy13 on December 11, 2022, 6:01 amAnother thought about the Senga signing is how much weight is given toward playing with another Japanese player (e.g. Darvish, Senga). It seems like that doesn't matter at all.
Actually it seems like they "avoid" that at all costs...
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lafnboy13
#1884 · December 11, 2022, 9:33 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 10, 2022, 6:33 amPadres LFGS(enga)D!
LOL....I knew he wasn't coming to SD after this got posted
#1885 · December 11, 2022, 9:57 am
Using Fangraphs and their ranking of the unsigned FA pitchers;
Projected WAR - Player - est AAV / yrs (and based on signings AAV is probably light by $4MM:
4.7 … Rodon … 27 for 5 with QO (but ask is 30 for 7)
2.5 … Bassitt … 16 for 3 with QO
2.4 … Eovaldi … 15 for 2 with QO
1.9 … Manaea … 11 for 2
1.7 … Kluber … 11 for 1
1.5 … Stripling … 11 for 2
1.5 … Wacha … 10 for 2
1.4 … Syndergaard … 14 for 2
1.3 … Smyly … 7 for 1
1.1 … Miley … 7 for 1
After the top 3 with QO … not the most impressive group for the price and a 1-2 WAR plus a few carry some real injury risk.
Other than the second half of 2022, Manaea has been around a 4 ERA and is also a plus in the clubhouse. Not sure I see any of the non QO types significantly better … so maybe a reunion with Manaea (only 30) makes sense … maybe for a 3rd year.
#1886 · December 11, 2022, 10:22 am
Same exercise for OF/DH:
2.3 … Benintendi … 14 for 4
1.6 … Conforto … 12 for 1
1.6 … Drury … 10 for 3
1.5 … Profar … 10 for 3
1.5 … Anderson … - for -
1.2 … Brantley … 12 for 1
1.2 … Mancini … 8 for 2
1.1 … Gallo … 10 for 1
1.0 … Pham … 8 for 1
1.0 … Pollack … 8 for 1
Except for Benintendi, again a bunch of 1-2 WAR types and considering the 3rd and 4th best are Drury and Profar … not going to get any major help.
If you buy that the WAR differences are minimal … beginning to like the return of Profar as a switch hitter who can play all positions if needed and huge clubhouse / management favorite for attitude and working with other players. He does not have to carry the team but with very bad bench having Profar able to pop up anywhere is very valuable.
#1887 · December 11, 2022, 11:16 am
Of those w/o the QO….give me Kluber for 1-2 years.
But beginning to think we’d be better off going the trade route.
Young controllable arm from the Marlins…Luzardo,Lopez,Cabrera.
Would be costly but we need a long term solution with Darvish FA looming and his age.
As a lefty I think I’d prefer Luzardo…he may be a bit less costly than the other two also.
What other non contending teams may have a more expensive SP they may be looking to unload?
#1888 · December 11, 2022, 11:24 am
Looking beyond the total stats on Manaea … and breaking them down a bit more to reflect a #4-5 SP type value … I can see where he would be a good re-sign considering the other candidates. He went to the post for 28 starts pitched over 150 innings and although his overall ERA was bad .. that really was the result of 5 real ugly starts when he was left in maybe longer than should have been.
Of the 28 starts:
20 were 3 runs or less … with the 2023 offense and the deep pen that should be setting up a lot of wins over a 162 game schedule.
3 were at 4 runs … still solid chance to win
5 were 5 runs or greater … a couple real ugly and that does stick in our minds but should not over shadow the 20 quality starts. Those 5 were spread out over the year (so not a total end of season fade): Apr (1); Jun (1); Aug (2); and Sep (1).
If Manaea repeated his 2022 pattern … Padres should win more of his starts than they lose and that is important from a bottom of the rotation arm.
#1889 · December 11, 2022, 11:46 am
I could make a case that with the current roster and just some mid-range adds such as Kluber or Manaea and a bat such as Profar the Padres are already in the drivers seat of a wild card slot and in a very good position to overtake the LAD who (as yet) have not done much to offset their FA losses.
Rather than deplete the limited number of quality trade chips now … maybe should wait until the trade deadline for any big move and target the primary need at that time … might not be a SP.
#1890 · December 11, 2022, 1:19 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2022, 11:46 amI could make a case that with the current roster and just some mid-range adds such as Kluber or Manaea and a bat such as Profar the Padres are already in the drivers seat of a wild card slot and in a very good position to overtake the LAD who (as yet) have not done much to offset their FA losses.
Rather than deplete the limited number of quality trade chips now … maybe should wait until the trade deadline for any big move and target the primary need at that time … might not be a SP.
My wish list
Upgrade at Catcher
Lefty bat
1 SP..
Invite to ST on minor league deal - Cole Hanels/Julio Teheran ✔️