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2023 offseason
#1731 · December 8, 2022, 3:26 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 8, 2022, 3:14 amI just pray that AJ’s relentless pursuit of a Shortstop is solely based on the fact that those were the best bats available and doesn’t have anything to do with Tatis’s health.
I’m guessing it was…..because we already had Kim at SS….but I still worry there’s something we aren’t being told about Nandos health.
This also makes certain that Tatis has been told he’s an outfielder/DH now.
What are the chances Xander plays 2b and Kim stays at SS?
X’s range is not that great.
I will guess that Bogaerts gets the SS gig … not as good as Kim but did have a plus DRS … putting him where he has been probably makes the transition to the Padres easier and allows his bat to play to the max. Kim with his range may become the best defensive 2B in the non-shift era and that may be the narrative in ST.
Bogaerts fits Preller’s theme of adding a major IMPACT player … regardless of position and he just happens to be a SS. Tatis future was probably an after though beyond the fact he can play a lot of positions. So, looking like Tatis gets tucked into the OF … does in my mind a couple of good things for Tatis … first, with Bogaerts - Soto - Machado, Tatis does not have to be “the guy” immediately upon his return from a full season away which should take a bit of pressure off. Second, he can focus on his OF defense without potentially bouncing between the OF and INF as was suggest in the media.
#1732 · December 8, 2022, 3:30 am
Quote from Notmyopic on December 8, 2022, 2:30 amOof, not sure about this deal. That’s a lot of money for a guy with bad home/away splits. Afraid he will be an overpaid second baseman by year five.
“Bad”? 2022 wRC+ home (141) / away (128). BA home (.317) / away (.297) …
#1733 · December 8, 2022, 3:46 am
I always have a problem with long term deals … especially those taking the player to near age 40. However, that appears the ante needed to play with the big boys.
The long term deals rarely are productive at the end BUT there is a case to be made that is irrelevant … basically live with the decline in productivity at the end.
First, in 11 years, with inflation (especially in MLB), that $25MM will be the same as $12MM. Additionally, stretching out the contract lowers the AAV (saving the Padres money in penalties right now) and lowers cash paid out near term. Maybe most important is the hope that signing a player like Bogaert to this roster will get the Padres to the World Series in the near term … that generates more revenue now.
Bottom line, a case can be made that those last years are the same as deferred money in a shorter contract but has the advantage of lowering AAV … becomes a throw away set of years.
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#1734 · December 8, 2022, 4:47 am
Any interest in Ross Stripling ? He is estimated for 2 years at 18 million . He is a pretty solid pitcher who wouldn't break the bank .
Tatis is definitely going to the outfield with Soto and Grisham . I would also be open to a lower cost deal with Luke Voit to finish our lineup .
#1735 · December 8, 2022, 5:20 am
Now go get Brantley and Senga.
If we don't have the $$ for Senga (I get it),what about Kluber or Greinke on a 2 year deal?
Short term...still productive Vets who,other than 19' for Kluber, are consistently well above average.
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#1736 · December 8, 2022, 5:38 am
Quote from Notmyopic on December 8, 2022, 2:30 amOof, not sure about this deal. That’s a lot of money for a guy with bad home/away splits. Afraid he will be an overpaid second baseman by year five.
After watching some videos, Bogaerts improvement in the field were due to his positioning on the grass. With the new rules in place this year, he won't be able to do that. You're most likely right about the switch to 2B but I'm thinking it's going to happen a lot sooner.
He's a big time pull hitter too, which he'll have to adapt if he's going to be successful in SD( and with the shift gone!)
Dude has a helluva track record though. I expect a better first 60 games as a Padre than we got from Soto.
And Fenn, hope you're right about going after a pitcher next. Be nice to add a durable arm in the 4/5 slot.
#1737 · December 8, 2022, 5:52 am
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/padres-xander-bogaerts-agree-to-11-year-deal.html
Good article about Bogaerts.
So, basically off our National League Championship series team, we will be switching to a new 1B,2B,SS,LF,RF and DH....got it......
#1738 · December 8, 2022, 5:54 am
I am not sure that the AAV for Kluber, Stripling, or Greinke will be that different than Senga … but the length will be. Given the lack of SP and the price paid so far for lesser SP … those three should pull in more than Gibson / Clevinger who were at $10MM and $12MM.
Stripling has bidders and should get multiple years at at least $15MM coming of a great rebound 2022. Kluber and Greinke probably one year deals but still high AAV.
Since the Padres need SP for more than 2023 … might push to spend the higher AAV for Senga but keep it down by going the extra year. If that does not work … probably move in order for Stripling to Kluber but avoid Greinke.
#1739 · December 8, 2022, 6:18 am
Quote from WindsorUK on December 8, 2022, 5:38 amQuote from Notmyopic on December 8, 2022, 2:30 amOof, not sure about this deal. That’s a lot of money for a guy with bad home/away splits. Afraid he will be an overpaid second baseman by year five.
After watching some videos, Bogaerts improvement in the field were due to his positioning on the grass. With the new rules in place this year, he won't be able to do that. You're most likely right about the switch to 2B but I'm thinking it's going to happen a lot sooner.
He's a big time pull hitter too, which he'll have to adapt if he's going to be successful in SD( and with the shift gone!)
Dude has a helluva track record though. I expect a better first 60 games as a Padre than we got from Soto.
And Fenn, hope you're right about going after a pitcher next. Be nice to add a durable arm in the 4/5 slot.
Actually not a big time pull hitter … basically average.
Pull - Center - Opposite
40 - 35 -25 …. MLB splits in 2022
40 - 35 -25 … Bogaerts splits in 2022 (basically a rounding difference)
42 - 33 - 25 … Bogaerts splits in his career
That is about as close to average splits as one can get.
======================
If playing deeper helped him … Padres just push the grass further out by expanding the dirt deeper? There is always a solution.
Do agree that he will not be a long term SS but they did not get him for his defense … they got him for his impact on the offense / team in the short term. Now that he is signed … paid for as an elite SS … probably more flexible in his defensive position.
Maybe that is in 2023 but guessing the issue comes as Merrill is ML ready in his best position and the re-signing (or not) of Kim and/or Cronenworth. I would not rule out and aging Bogaerts at 1B (if Croney gone) or 3B (if Machado gone).
#1740 · December 8, 2022, 6:47 am
Xander's birthday is Oct 1st.. so he played 2022 at age 29.. his 11th yr will be at age 40th for SDP.. so he is a very young 30yr old..
*Still need DH.
1 solid SP
1 depth SP
*1 bench vet
*preferably lefties