Quote from MrPadre19 on November 30, 2022, 3:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 8:30 am

One “report” was suggesting Bogaerts for 1B (or 2B with Croney to 1B) and having Bogaerts as insurance against Machado opting out after the season … then Bogaerts to 3B. Ties with the suggestion that Preller was asking about willing to change position off SS.

Hard to get equal production (in 2023 for the same price) in a Cronenworth trade … so probably not benefit.

The Machado issue … at least the fact that someone is thinking that … does open a can of worms surrounding his future. Machado will have remaining 5 years / $30MM AAV. He is one of the elite players who could be FA after the season and what this year’s FA get may have a lot of influence over his decision. Not only AAV but contract length. Good chance he wants more than 5 years guaranteed money so he does not have to hit FA in his mid/late 30s. So, good chance Machado does opt out if he has a good season and likely the Padres do not want to be put in the position of covering his departure while trying to contend in 2024. Not sure Machado’s willingness to extend without testing the market … not sure how much the Padres would go on extension basically bidding against themselves.

I did see where supposedly AJ asked if Xander was willing to change positions even if just for next year.

Agent said no….he will be a SS.

Doesn’t rule us out….but makes it less likely than it already was.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 30, 2022, 3:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Not sure who is pushing the rumors of Padres being contenders for Bogaerts / Turner … could be the agents to get others to bid up … could be Preller to get others to focus on those guys … could be the media needing talking points and taking a “due diligence” effort by Preller and making that seem serious.

Makes little sense for the Padres … and yes I do think the Padres have a spending limit that would be better used to fill three needs (2 hitters / 1 SP) than going all in on one player. Consider per Fangraphs projections:

Turner (30) … $30MM AAV for 7 years OR

Bogaerts (30) … $28MM AAV for 6 years

VERSUS

Benintendi (28) … $14MM AAV for 4 years AND Bell (30) … $13MM AAV for 3 years

Two quality adds to fill out the full 9 player line-up once Tatis is back on shorter commitments (less worry about age eroding skills) seems more strategic than one add. Also better protection of a hitter (or two) getting a major injury since nothing of ML quality in house sitting in waiting.

So either creates a payroll increase in the $28MM zone and (as I suspect) Teheran gets that #5 SP slot adding $6MM … gets the Padres over $260MM and well into the 2nd tier of CBT penalties (more money out).

I love Bell.

He seems like a great guy once we got to get to know him some.Would love to have him back.

BUT….at the cost he’s expecting I’d rather sign Benintendi…..Myers for 1b….and use the money saved to get a SP.

Maybe Benintendi/Myers/Senga instead of Benintendi/Bell/Davies…as an example

What do we expect Myers market to be?

I really think playing 1b every day (and healthy) could be a difference maker for Wil.

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 4:29 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 30, 2022, 3:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 8:30 am

One “report” was suggesting Bogaerts for 1B (or 2B with Croney to 1B) and having Bogaerts as insurance against Machado opting out after the season … then Bogaerts to 3B. Ties with the suggestion that Preller was asking about willing to change position off SS.

Hard to get equal production (in 2023 for the same price) in a Cronenworth trade … so probably not benefit.

The Machado issue … at least the fact that someone is thinking that … does open a can of worms surrounding his future. Machado will have remaining 5 years / $30MM AAV. He is one of the elite players who could be FA after the season and what this year’s FA get may have a lot of influence over his decision. Not only AAV but contract length. Good chance he wants more than 5 years guaranteed money so he does not have to hit FA in his mid/late 30s. So, good chance Machado does opt out if he has a good season and likely the Padres do not want to be put in the position of covering his departure while trying to contend in 2024. Not sure Machado’s willingness to extend without testing the market … not sure how much the Padres would go on extension basically bidding against themselves.

I did see where supposedly AJ asked if Xander was willing to change positions even if just for next year.

Agent said no….he will be a SS.

Doesn’t rule us out….but makes it less likely than it already was.

 

After that report there was another that suggested that Bogaerts would consider changing position IF HE WAS PAID AS A SS (Boras). Boras closes no doors where money is involved and wants as many suitors in play as long as possible.

Still a long shot that may require some other creative moves.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 4:48 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 30, 2022, 3:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Not sure who is pushing the rumors of Padres being contenders for Bogaerts / Turner … could be the agents to get others to bid up … could be Preller to get others to focus on those guys … could be the media needing talking points and taking a “due diligence” effort by Preller and making that seem serious.

Makes little sense for the Padres … and yes I do think the Padres have a spending limit that would be better used to fill three needs (2 hitters / 1 SP) than going all in on one player. Consider per Fangraphs projections:

Turner (30) … $30MM AAV for 7 years OR

Bogaerts (30) … $28MM AAV for 6 years

VERSUS

Benintendi (28) … $14MM AAV for 4 years AND Bell (30) … $13MM AAV for 3 years

Two quality adds to fill out the full 9 player line-up once Tatis is back on shorter commitments (less worry about age eroding skills) seems more strategic than one add. Also better protection of a hitter (or two) getting a major injury since nothing of ML quality in house sitting in waiting.

So either creates a payroll increase in the $28MM zone and (as I suspect) Teheran gets that #5 SP slot adding $6MM … gets the Padres over $260MM and well into the 2nd tier of CBT penalties (more money out).

I love Bell.

He seems like a great guy once we got to get to know him some.Would love to have him back.

BUT….at the cost he’s expecting I’d rather sign Benintendi…..Myers for 1b….and use the money saved to get a SP.

Maybe Benintendi/Myers/Senga instead of Benintendi/Bell/Davies…as an example

What do we expect Myers market to be?

I really think playing 1b every day (and healthy) could be a difference maker for Wil.

 

 

 

 

Benintendi is interesting this winter... not hearing any rumors on suitors (except NYY) but same goes for Bell.

Are both just under the radar or sitting as fallback options as some of the more sought after players get signed ... should signal a more reasonable price on both.

On Bell ... would like him back ... ideally 3 years but might go 4 if that closes the deal and lowers the AAV ... only 30 so should hold up through age 34. If Boras is locked in on topping $60MM total value might they buy into $64MM / 4 years ($16MM AAV)? That is about $3MM more AAV than most expected. Plus since most media think Abreu's deal was just out of line high good chance the few teams that want to spend on a 1B in that price range will not likely  top a $20MM AAV. But this is Boras so ??????????

____________________

Myers is another head scratcher ... remove the frustration of him not living up to his $20MM contract and his injuries ... he is a decent 1B and can play a corner OF while being just over a 100 wRC+ hitter ... plus a good team player and still not "old". There should be multiple bidders given the OF/1B profile ... but more a 1 WAR type so in the $8MM range. (in this market, hard to see any decent hitter getting less).

I would have him as a fallback option (I like watching him play) but not sure Preller would bring him back after trying to deal him for the last few years. Time to move on.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 4:51 pm

One rumor is that Padres may be interested in LHH/1B Dominic Smith ... probably make good player rather than the 1B solution but since the Padres need a 1B and a DH and a deeper bench ... maybe if the contract is right. Another fallback option at low cost.

Quote from TarheelPadre on November 30, 2022, 6:13 pm

You need to have more offensive production at SS than what Kim can provide.  I, also, wouldn’t hand it over to Tatis either.  He must learn his lesson this year.  Therefore, we should be in the market for a quality SS.

Hard pass on Myers and would like to see Grisham as a late game defensive substitution only.

C- Nola

1B- FA

2B- Cronenworth

SS- FA

3B- Machado

LF- Tatis

CF- FA

RF- Soto

Go get a SS, 1B, and CF.  Heck, it ain’t my money!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2022, 7:38 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/npbs-hanshin-tigers-post-shintaro-fujinami.html

Another JPN player available.. been a SP and BP.. dont think he would be a priority at all..but could he be an excellent Swiss knife BP arm like Nick 2022?

When Othani and Fujinami were drafted (same yr) many had Fujinami  ahead of Othani .. 6'-6" and touches 100mph.. sits 96-97.. control issues are his kryptonite..

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2022, 7:55 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2022, 7:38 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/npbs-hanshin-tigers-post-shintaro-fujinami.html

Another JPN player available.. been a SP and BP.. dont think he would be a priority at all..but could he be an excellent Swiss knife BP arm like Nick 2022?

Might be a question as to how high a projection the Padres have on him ... what is the cost ... does he want to sign as a ML SP only (should have others willing to let him start) ... who gets bumped from the current most probable 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster? Put those issues together ... that makes him a long shot.

If they really like him maybe sign as the #5 SP ... but while needing two bats hard to see them bid too high on what still would be a 2023 gamble on his conversion to MLB.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2022, 8:51 am

Hopefully the winter meetings will yield some movement on adding hitters to the Padres ... as it is all 13 position players slots are fill by the only 13 position players on the 40 man roster ... and six of those 13 are at best questionable and some are just not ML quality for a contender.

Core 7: Soto - Grisham - Tatis - Machado - Kim - Cronenworth - Nola

Supporting 6:

Dixon (30) ...536 ML AB ... .676 OPS

Azocar (26) ... 202 AB ... .630 OPS

Campusano (24) ... 85 AB ... .510 OPS

Batten (27) ... 19 AB ... .385 OPS

Rosario (23) ... 5 AB ... .533 OPS

Sullivan (28) ... 0 AB ... ------

So, two of the supporting 6 will be in the starting line-up every day and some combo of the rest will be needed to cover injuries / rest ... so, potentially three will be in the starting line-up and couple them with Grisham being a sub-200 hitter ... could end up with four of the starting nine below the Mendoza line ... that would be a real problem for the Padres.

Likely Campusano and Azocar are in (hopefully the bench) ... Dixon and Rosario might be kept but are on the bubble for 2023 pending a bench upgrade ... but Batten and Sullivan need to be replaced with some proven ML talent to start.

Would be OK with just ML "average" hitters and not push for elite given Machado - Soto - Tatis in hand ... a couple of 100 wRC+ types would lengthen the line-up and probably allow for pursuit for another SP ... money-wise.