Quote from lafnboy13 on November 29, 2022, 7:27 pm

From Ken Rosenthal @ The Athletic:

 

A three-year, $58.5 million contract seemed high for free-agent first baseman José Abreu, who turns 36 on Jan. 29. The Athletic’s Keith Law criticized the Astros for paying him that much. But the competition for Abreu, according to major-league sources and media reports, perhaps explains how, even at an advanced age, he exceeded his previous three-year, $50 million deal with the White Sox.

The Padres and Guardians also made Abreu three-year offers. The Red Sox considered him their top outside priority, though the size of their offer was not known. The Marlins were in the mix, as were the Cubs and Rays. Other teams might have been involved as well.

• As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote, the Padres have every reason to take a measured approach this offseason, seeking to add depth more than star power. But some in the industry believe general manager A.J. Preller will follow his usual formula, and at least attempt to do something big.

Abreu appealed to the Padres and other clubs in part because he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after getting one from the White Sox (and accepting it) in 2019. The Padres, after exceeding the luxury-tax threshold last season, would forfeit a second- and fifth-round pick, as well as $1 million from their international signing bonus pool for signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer — Xander Bogaerts, for example. Such a penalty would be especially painful for a San Diego team that depleted its farm system at the deadline with trades for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury.

The obvious course for the Padres, then, would be to find a first base/DH type to fill the role projected for Abreu, plus another starting pitcher and bullpen and bench help. But Preller, as first reported by the New York Post, is exploring the shortstop market. Perhaps his inquiries are simply the routine due diligence GMs perform at this time of year. But according to major-league sources, Preller recently asked Bogaerts’ agent, Scott Boras, whether the shortstop would be willing to play other infield positions. Others say Preller, like pretty much every other GM, fancies Trea Turner, too.

Bogaerts would make particular sense for the Padres if he was willing to play first base or second short-term, then possibly move to third if Manny Machado opts out after next season. Soto, meanwhile, could leave as a free agent after 2024, potentially creating another offensive void.

The Padres, after re-signing pitchers Robert Suárez and Nick Martinez, moved within $1 million of the first luxury-tax threshold according to Fangraphs. They’re already all-in. The only question is how far they will go.

• Whatever the Padres do, they need to figure out where to play Fernando Tatis Jr., who will be coming off multiple wrist surgeries, a shoulder operation and an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs that ends on April 20.

Ha-Seong Kim emerged as a top defensive shortstop last season, ranking among the top eight at the position in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. Of the free-agent shortstops, only Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are comparable defensively.

The Padres were talking about playing Tatis in center before he was suspended. He also can fill a void in left if free agent Jurickson Profar signs with another club, or right if the Padres move Soto back to his original position. Second base could be another option, with Jake Cronenworth moving to first.

Much depends, obviously, on what the Padres accomplish this offseason.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2022, 7:56 pm

Others say Preller, like pretty much every other GM, fancies Trea Turner, too.

2023 line up, Turner - CF, Brantley - DH, Machado - 3B, Soto - RF, Tatis - LF, Bogaerts -2B, Crone - 1B. Kim - SS, Nola - C.

2023 rotation, Verlander, Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Senga, Martinez.

Stroke the checks Seidler, its only money you cant take it with you.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Not sure who is pushing the rumors of Padres being contenders for Bogaerts / Turner … could be the agents to get others to bid up … could be Preller to get others to focus on those guys … could be the media needing talking points and taking a “due diligence” effort by Preller and making that seem serious.

Makes little sense for the Padres … and yes I do think the Padres have a spending limit that would be better used to fill three needs (2 hitters / 1 SP) than going all in on one player. Consider per Fangraphs projections:

Turner (30) … $30MM AAV for 7 years OR

Bogaerts (30) … $28MM AAV for 6 years

VERSUS

Benintendi (28) … $14MM AAV for 4 years AND Bell (30) … $13MM AAV for 3 years

Two quality adds to fill out the full 9 player line-up once Tatis is back on shorter commitments (less worry about age eroding skills) seems more strategic than one add. Also better protection of a hitter (or two) getting a major injury since nothing of ML quality in house sitting in waiting.

So either creates a payroll increase in the $28MM zone and (as I suspect) Teheran gets that #5 SP slot adding $6MM … gets the Padres over $260MM and well into the 2nd tier of CBT penalties (more money out).

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2022, 7:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Makes little sense for the Padres … and yes I do think the Padres have a spending limit that would be better used to fill three needs (2 hitters / 1 SP) than going all in on one player. Consider per Fangraphs projections:

You do know that I am posting the signing of Bogaerts and Turner in fun/jest because I know there is no way to it would happen, even if Seidler would push a $400M payroll. The odds of signing both would be astronomical with other teams interested.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:51 am

Padres don’t seem to be linked to much pitching except Senga (that may be serious) and Rodon (probably no more than due diligence given the cost) … that could be that Preller is looking at the current pitching and is comfortable enough to focus on hitters. Breaking down the current staff … that may be a good strategic approach … consider:

First RP:

9th inning: Hader (L) … Suarez

8th inning: Pomeranz (L) … Garcia

7th inning: Hill (L) … Wilson

6th inning: Morejon (L) … Crismatt

That basically has quality arms for the last 6 innings of all 162 games while not over working any and allowing the end of game arms coming in early for high leverage situations. That is eight RP leaving room for only five SP:

1. Darvish, 2. Musgrove, 3. Snell (L), 4. Martinez, 5. TBD (from Teheran, Groome (L), Avila, Knehr)

Sure always want to upgrade, but that 13 man staff is in much better shape than the offense with the last two starting slots (and the bench) have to go to a mix of Azocar, Batten, Rosario, Dixon, Campusano, Sullivan … basically a AAA group. Plus zero non-roster prospects near term.

Buy hitters in volume … two minimum and maybe a 3rd for the rotational back-up to cover rest / injury …

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:58 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2022, 7:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Not sure who is pushing the rumors of Padres being contenders for Bogaerts / Turner … could be the agents to get others to bid up … could be Preller to get others to focus on those guys … could be the media needing talking points and taking a “due diligence” effort by Preller and making that seem serious.

You do know that I am posting the signing of Bogaerts and Turner in fun/jest because I know there is no way to it would happen, even if Seidler would push a $400M payroll. The odds of signing both would be astronomical with other teams interested.

Yeh, I got that. Was referring to various reports in the media (and by “insiders”) linking the Padres with those two.

The Bogaerts’ rumors have been pushed a lot in the past few days since “apparently” Preller met with Boras to ask if Bogaerts was willing to shift positions … true? Even if true does not directly link to being willing / able to pay the going price and is just due diligence to size the rest of the market or check in on other Boras clients (eg Profar).

A lot of mis-direction at this time of year.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2022, 8:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:32 am

Benintendi (28) … $14MM AAV for 4 years AND Bell (30) … $13MM AAV for 3 years

Two quality adds to fill out the full 9 player line-up once Tatis is back on shorter commitments (less worry about age eroding skills) seems more strategic than one add. Also better protection of a hitter (or two) getting a major injury since nothing of ML quality in house sitting in waiting.

I think Benintendi and Bell would be a nice balance for the Padre line up. Especially if Bell where to get back to his norms, there would be a lot of good OBP in a line up with Benintendi, Bell, Soto, Tatis, and Machado.

I would think that if SD were to sign Benintendi, he would be the lead off guy? Although, he has spent most of his time hitting 2nd. How about a trade for Berti, he can play 3B, 2B, LF, and CF. He could DH occasionally and give guys days off, and he led the MLs in steals last season.

Berti, Benintendi, Machado, Soto, Tatis, Bell, Crone, Kim, Grisham, Nola is a nice and balanced line up to get excited about.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2022, 8:05 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 7:58 am

Was referring to various reports in the media (and by “insiders”) linking the Padres with those two.

The Bogaerts’ rumors have been pushed a lot in the past few days since “apparently” Preller met with Boras to ask if Bogaerts was willing to shift positions … true? Even if true does not directly link to being willing / able to pay the going price and is just due diligence to size the rest of the market or check in on other Boras clients (eg Profar).

I guess they only real way a Bogaerts signing would make some sense, would be leading to the trading of Crone. Of course, that would be to fill other positions, hence the position change to 2nd.

I personally would not like to see that, since I like Crone's cost for this season, and his bat is LH, and I think you and I agree that SD leans to heavy towards RHH.

I guess a swap of Bogaerts for Crone would make sense depending on the return for Crone.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2022, 8:30 am

One “report” was suggesting Bogaerts for 1B (or 2B with Croney to 1B) and having Bogaerts as insurance against Machado opting out after the season … then Bogaerts to 3B. Ties with the suggestion that Preller was asking about willing to change position off SS.

Hard to get equal production (in 2023 for the same price) in a Cronenworth trade … so probably not benefit.

The Machado issue … at least the fact that someone is thinking that … does open a can of worms surrounding his future. Machado will have remaining 5 years / $30MM AAV. He is one of the elite players who could be FA after the season and what this year’s FA get may have a lot of influence over his decision. Not only AAV but contract length. Good chance he wants more than 5 years guaranteed money so he does not have to hit FA in his mid/late 30s. So, good chance Machado does opt out if he has a good season and likely the Padres do not want to be put in the position of covering his departure while trying to contend in 2024. Not sure Machado’s willingness to extend without testing the market … not sure how much the Padres would go on extension basically bidding against themselves.