Forum
Forum Navigation
2023 offseason
#1401 · November 29, 2022, 6:51 am
Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2022, 5:53 amQuote from fenn68 on November 29, 2022, 3:13 am
$60MM vs $40MM in guaranteed money is 50% greater than the guess … that is a large difference. Actually looking at total contracts signed so far … consistently greater than the guesses. Maybe that is a function of early signings …maybe that is the reality of this FA season.
These signings might slow down the signings of the other FA who feel they can hold out for more … and do they signal some outlandish contracts for some of the big names out there.
Perhaps HOU had to go to a 3rd year to win the bidding based on other teams offering two years. MLBTR still got the AAV correct.
Yeh, but I do focus on the total guaranteed commitment (especially in some of the longer contracts the extra year is used to lower the AAV not expecting the player to maintain the high productivity in that last year).
Have to question whether Abreu at age 38 (the 3rd year) will be a $20MM dollar player (or could get in as a FA). Both sides do the forecasts on fair market by year … then cash flow it to a level payout. So, if they saw a $24 - 22 - 14MM yearly value … make it $20MM per year. CWS (or another team) does not go the two year market value and gambles on the 3rd year while Abreu gets guaranteed money for age 38 and, in effect, a higher AAV for years one and two.
Can play with assumptions on numbers but I would guess including year three bought down the demanded AAV for years one and two to $20 MM from something much higher.
#1402 · November 29, 2022, 7:03 am
IF, as reported, Abreu was a “top priority” for the Padres … where do the Padres pivot if they were will to commit in the neighborhood of $20MM?
First, was the pursuit of Abreu a function of Abreu specifically or a priority for a 1B/DH with plus offensive skills?
If it the latter … does Bell resurface as a lead target? I know he under-performed in his two month stint in SD but his history show him as a plus hitter / switch hitter providing some additional LHH support that may benefit for the lack of the shift. Should cost less than Abreu (AAV).
____________________
Pretty sure Preller will re-set priorities (position , offense / pitching, et al) as players come off the board to get (in his mind) the best add for the team. So, Preller could lower this 1B/DH target and shift the money available to SP.
He should keep us guessing for some time.
#1403 · November 29, 2022, 7:43 am
Of all the Padres FAs this offseason, Bell would be my choice to come back. He seems to be a good person (Seidler/Preller preference), seemed to fit in the clubhouse, is still young, and as you mentioned a SH, that seemed to get better later in his stint in SD. And his norms made him a good trade deadline get.
If we could get Quintana and Bell, and then maybe one additional bench piece, I would call that a good offseason.
And yes, Preller will do nothing else but keep us guessing.
#1404 · November 29, 2022, 12:04 pm
Padres Re-sign Efrain Contreras..nice little drop from 40.. re-sign
Should be at AA with a chance at a cup of tea if need be if he continues to improve
#1405 · November 29, 2022, 12:27 pm
Jeimer Candelario signs with Nats 1/5 +$1 in incentives .. good signing to be honest
#1406 · November 29, 2022, 1:13 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 29, 2022, 12:27 pmJeimer Candelario signs with Nats 1/5 +$1 in incentives .. good signing to be honest
I thought so too. Seems like a lot of B pieces are moving pretty quickly.
#1407 · November 29, 2022, 1:18 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on November 29, 2022, 1:13 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on November 29, 2022, 12:27 pmJeimer Candelario signs with Nats 1/5 +$1 in incentives .. good signing to be honest
I thought so too. Seems like a lot of B pieces are moving pretty quickly.
Yeh, gets to start at 3B and establish some stats for next winter’s FA … last year in DET was poor but prior had respectable performance. WASH likely signs a trade chip for the deadline next year.
#1408 · November 29, 2022, 1:18 pm
Nationals signed Stone Garrett. Surprisingly, its an MLB contract.
#1409 · November 29, 2022, 1:36 pm
Never get over excited about winter league stats but some encouraging signs from the Dominican Winter League and Julio Teheran:
Seven starts … 35.1 innings
2.80 ERA / 0.85 WHIP
21 K / 3 BB … only 25 hits
Does show he is healthy and appears to have a good combo of command and stuff given those low BB / low hits leading to a low WHIP.
Given the Padres just recently signed him … they must have been scouting his early starts in the DSL and he showed enough. A legit contender for a bottom of the rotation slot.
#1410 · November 29, 2022, 2:21 pm
Dominican League is always peppered with MLB/former MLB and teams top specs.. its kind of like a AAA/AAAA league..good Competition.. and while I would also take stats with a grain of salt.. good stats are still a good sign