Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 11:57 am

Sounds like Abreu will get 3 years at about a $20MM AAV ... that blows away most guesses ... especially the 3 years for a 36 year old limited to 1B/DH.

 

Actually I went back and checked the FA guesses from MLBTR, and they predicted $20M for 2 years. So they were right on the dollar amount ( -500K), and only one shy of the years, so not too bad.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:31 pm

Read an article on The Athletic, and now Bowden is suggesting that either Bassitt or Senga are real possibilities for SD.

With the Abreu signing predicted really close by MLBTR, I went back and looked at the predictions MLBTR made for Bassitt and Senga, to see what they are predicting for each.

Senga 5 at $15M per, and Bassitt for $20M for 3 years. Preference???

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 28, 2022, 7:13 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:31 pm

Read an article on The Athletic, and now Bowden is suggesting that either Bassitt or Senga are real possibilities for SD.

With the Abreu signing predicted really close by MLBTR, I went back and looked at the predictions MLBTR made for Bassitt and Senga, to see what they are predicting for each.

Senga 5 at $15M per, and Bassitt for $20M for 3 years. Preference???

Senga for me.. cause "Ghost Fork" pitch uniqueness + 100mph FB...

Wouldn't be upset with Bassitt though

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2022, 8:18 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 11:57 am

Sounds like Abreu will get 3 years at about a $20MM AAV ... that blows away most guesses ... especially the 3 years for a 36 year old limited to 1B/DH.

 

Actually I went back and checked the FA guesses from MLBTR, and they predicted $20M for 2 years. So they were right on the dollar amount ( -500K), and only one shy of the years, so not too bad.

2/$40 worried me from the get go.

I don’t see how that 3rd year isn’t going to be bad for Houston.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2022, 3:13 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 11:57 am

Sounds like Abreu will get 3 years at about a $20MM AAV ... that blows away most guesses ... especially the 3 years for a 36 year old limited to 1B/DH.

 

Actually I went back and checked the FA guesses from MLBTR, and they predicted $20M for 2 years. So they were right on the dollar amount ( -500K), and only one shy of the years, so not too bad.

$60MM vs $40MM in guaranteed money is 50% greater than the guess … that is a large difference. Actually looking at total contracts signed so far … consistently greater than the guesses. Maybe that is a function of early signings …maybe that is the reality of this FA season.

These signings might slow down the signings of the other FA who feel they can hold out for more … and do they signal some outlandish contracts for some of the big names out there.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2022, 3:19 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 6:31 pm

Read an article on The Athletic, and now Bowden is suggesting that either Bassitt or Senga are real possibilities for SD.

With the Abreu signing predicted really close by MLBTR, I went back and looked at the predictions MLBTR made for Bassitt and Senga, to see what they are predicting for each.

Senga 5 at $15M per, and Bassitt for $20M for 3 years. Preference???

Bassett has a QO … so would stay off him especially if he is signing for only 2 years but he is “older” so more than 2-3 years is a big risk.

So Senga by default of those two … but quite a few of the big spenders are also in on Senga and now expecting him to get more than a $75MM deal … but worried about his transition to the US (at that price).

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2022, 3:49 am

Clevinger signing for $12 mil has to have all the other free agent SP salivating.

The White Sox just raised the cost of every remaining SP.

It’s just one year….but still.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2022, 5:50 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2022, 3:49 am

Clevinger signing for $12 mil has to have all the other free agent SP salivating.

The White Sox just raised the cost of every remaining SP.

It’s just one year….but still.

 

Yeah, this seems like a big overpay on the part of the CWS.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 29, 2022, 5:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2022, 3:13 am

 

$60MM vs $40MM in guaranteed money is 50% greater than the guess … that is a large difference. Actually looking at total contracts signed so far … consistently greater than the guesses. Maybe that is a function of early signings …maybe that is the reality of this FA season.

These signings might slow down the signings of the other FA who feel they can hold out for more … and do they signal some outlandish contracts for some of the big names out there.

Perhaps HOU had to go to a 3rd year to win the bidding based on other teams offering two years. MLBTR still got the AAV correct.