Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:47 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 7:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:07 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 6:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Musgrove (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

You can add Martinez to your hunt list.

No, Martinez is IN (like it or not) to start the season … he will be starting … Padres would not have signed him to that contract without that as the intent.

Now, mid-season ????? … but would expect he would have to be really under-performing to get bumped out of the starting rotation given the low odds that two or three of the “in the hunt” guys prove better.

I know the narrative is that Martinez was ineffective as a SP … but we are talking a #5 at worst and in 2022 he made 10 starts (averaged 5.2 innings / start) with a respectable 4.30 ERA all coming by June 18th to start his return to the US. Have no belief that any of the “in the hunt” options can establish themselves as better option in ST even if the Padres sign a #4 (or better) via FA.

Also, would not be surprised the Padres start with a six man rotation and do the same as last season and move to five mid-season. Then a different decision based on performance.

I see the confusion. You added Musgrove twice in your original "IN" list. I just caught it.

Yikes! Sometime on Monday that second cup of coffee needs to kick in before I post.

Edit made.

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 7:49 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:47 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 7:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:07 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 6:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Musgrove (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

You can add Martinez to your hunt list.

No, Martinez is IN (like it or not) to start the season … he will be starting … Padres would not have signed him to that contract without that as the intent.

Now, mid-season ????? … but would expect he would have to be really under-performing to get bumped out of the starting rotation given the low odds that two or three of the “in the hunt” guys prove better.

I know the narrative is that Martinez was ineffective as a SP … but we are talking a #5 at worst and in 2022 he made 10 starts (averaged 5.2 innings / start) with a respectable 4.30 ERA all coming by June 18th to start his return to the US. Have no belief that any of the “in the hunt” options can establish themselves as better option in ST even if the Padres sign a #4 (or better) via FA.

Also, would not be surprised the Padres start with a six man rotation and do the same as last season and move to five mid-season. Then a different decision based on performance.

I see the confusion. You added Musgrove twice in your original "IN" list. I just caught it.

Yikes! Sometime on Monday that second cup of coffee needs to kick in before I post.

Edit made.

It caught me as well. Time to ramp up post holiday food fest.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 28, 2022, 7:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 5:53 am

I hope that Teheran spends a bulk of the off-season in SD working with the Padres / Musgrove et al / and some of the training staff to try to get into his former shape (or close to it) before ST … then hit ST in a full competitive mode.

He should have full motivation to make the full effort to try to return to ML status (and earn $6MM).

This could go a number of ways given he will be 32 coming off three sub-par years (COVID / shoulder injury), hence the minor league deal. Could be a total bust and not rebound from COVID/shoulder. Could be that back of the rotation piece that is better than the other internal options in 2023. Then could really return to near his 2019 form and deliver a sub-4.00 ERA and go to the post for a lot of starts. Maybe a long shot but not out of the question given he was successful with a FB in the 92MPH zone suggesting velocity was not the key to his success and if he has lost a MPH or two (as reported in DET) may not be a disaster. Preller must see the chance committing $6MM if he makes the ML roster.

 

I think he has been living in San Diego for a while.. I went to 2 Tijuana games but he did not pitch in either.. did anyone here catch a game or 2 in TJ in which he pitched?

I mean realistically speaking he is a better signing than Nomar was last offseason ..so of we get anything close to that production (from the pitching side) from Julio this is a big ++ if we get more than obviously quite possibly the "steal" of the offseason.. aka Drury 2022 2.0

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 28, 2022, 7:56 am

I don't expect much from Teheran, but I like the deal. With how little depth we have I would sign anyone with any kind of a track record that would take it to that kind of deal. Hopefully someone emerges that can provide good cheap innings.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 28, 2022, 7:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:47 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 7:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:07 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 6:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Musgrove (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

You can add Martinez to your hunt list.

No, Martinez is IN (like it or not) to start the season … he will be starting … Padres would not have signed him to that contract without that as the intent.

Now, mid-season ????? … but would expect he would have to be really under-performing to get bumped out of the starting rotation given the low odds that two or three of the “in the hunt” guys prove better.

I know the narrative is that Martinez was ineffective as a SP … but we are talking a #5 at worst and in 2022 he made 10 starts (averaged 5.2 innings / start) with a respectable 4.30 ERA all coming by June 18th to start his return to the US. Have no belief that any of the “in the hunt” options can establish themselves as better option in ST even if the Padres sign a #4 (or better) via FA.

Also, would not be surprised the Padres start with a six man rotation and do the same as last season and move to five mid-season. Then a different decision based on performance.

I see the confusion. You added Musgrove twice in your original "IN" list. I just caught it.

Yikes! Sometime on Monday that second cup of coffee needs to kick in before I post.

Edit made.

Just started my 2nd cup.. so I am still a bit foggy.. 😆

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 28, 2022, 8:35 am

Verlander meeting with dodgers today.

My guess is he signs with them soon.

They will over pay for the short term deal.

Somehow I have no feelings about this….it’s whatever.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 10:15 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2022, 4:08 pm

Clevinger signs with CWS for 1 year / $8MM.

Whew and updated report says the deal is guaranteed $12MM / 1 year.

1. Can’t see how CWS thought he would be worth that much

2. Worried that might really reflect the state of the pitching market driving up everyone’s price tag. (Maybe makes the Martinez deal look better and the $6MM make good contract for Teheran seems genius)

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 10:26 am

In the same vein some national types have Rodon ticketed for 5 years at $28MM AAV … BUT reports also are that his side is seeking a $35MM AAV.

In this market his 2021-2 seasons would justify his $35MM and only 29. Would worry that in the four previous years he could not stay healthy given that commitment. Plus with a QO … Padres would lose draft picks / international money plus would generate CBT penalties and would probably guarantee exceeding CBT in 2024 (and beyond) even if Darvish / Snell are gone via FA. Remember Soto and Cronenworth will be due some large ARB decisions.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 28, 2022, 11:19 am

Abreu to the Astros.