Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2022, 10:23 am

Just to follow up on Teheran.

In his 9 years with ATL (through 2019) he had 236 starts with a 3.80 ERA / 1.21 WHIP. In 2019 he had 33 starts and a 3.81 ERA but Atlanta declined a $12MM option for 2020.

In 2021 he had a shoulder problem right out of the gate … velocity down when he tried to return and ended on the 60 day IL and released at the end of the year. Don’t think he had surgery. 2022 in the Indy leagues but no word on velocity / stuff.

Never had high velocity (low 90s) so not sure how much the loss of velocity and if with rest and rehab (at age 31) Padres can get him up to a serviceable #5/#6 … or better. For now a good gamble on a minor league deal for potential in AAA.

Quote from WindsorUK on November 27, 2022, 3:49 pm

I read somewhere( MLB.com?) about crazy sign/trade deals.

One they mentioned for Pads was signing Rodon, and then trading Snell( and a minor league RP)for an MLB ready OF and a minor league arm( a few years out but with 4/5 capability)

Doesn't lengthen our rotation but does provide OF and a starting pitcher who competes from day 1.( Snell has averaged what, 4.3 innings per outing as a Padre? And that number gets inflated after the break as he absolutely stinks pre break)

Could be an interesting option?

Quote from fenn68 on November 27, 2022, 4:08 pm

Clevinger signs with CWS for 1 year / $8MM.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 28, 2022, 1:45 am

Julio pushing rookie Groome and taxi guys Avila/Khner/Wethers for 6th/7th SP spot is a good baseball depth move with upside.. Good AJP signing.. My info says Covid hit him pretty hard and he is just fully recovering from it…so I expect him to be 100% come ST and competing to be SDP 6th starter

Quote from BoosterSD on November 28, 2022, 5:41 am

In a little "fluff" piece on CBSportsline, they list what every ML team has reason to be thankful. They list SD's as a full season of Soto, which of course, should be fun.

In reality, I think we need to really be thankful for Seidler. This is the man that is responsible for SD no longer being a joke in ML baseball. When he and Fowler bought the team, it took us out of years of layaway ownership, who would trade away anything close to ML talent once they even got close to making any kind of real ML salary. Gone are the days of watching retreads come in and hoping they can do something to muster some excitement.

Yes, we still havent reached the goal yet, but is it not wonderful that we can sit on here and discuss how much SD will exceed the CBT levels, we no longer have to dream of having ML talent on the team, and we can dream of landing/keeping multiple star players on the team.

No offense CBS, more so than a full year of Soto, we really need to be thankful for finally having a great owner that lets things like Soto happen.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 5:53 am

I hope that Teheran spends a bulk of the off-season in SD working with the Padres / Musgrove et al / and some of the training staff to try to get into his former shape (or close to it) before ST … then hit ST in a full competitive mode.

He should have full motivation to make the full effort to try to return to ML status (and earn $6MM).

This could go a number of ways given he will be 32 coming off three sub-par years (COVID / shoulder injury), hence the minor league deal. Could be a total bust and not rebound from COVID/shoulder. Could be that back of the rotation piece that is better than the other internal options in 2023. Then could really return to near his 2019 form and deliver a sub-4.00 ERA and go to the post for a lot of starts. Maybe a long shot but not out of the question given he was successful with a FB in the 92MPH zone suggesting velocity was not the key to his success and if he has lost a MPH or two (as reported in DET) may not be a disaster. Preller must see the chance committing $6MM if he makes the ML roster.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Martinez (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 6:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Musgrove (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

You can add Martinez to your hunt list.

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 7:07 am

Quote from lafnboy13 on November 28, 2022, 6:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2022, 6:10 am

We are here with SP in 2023:

IN: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell (L); Musgrove (his until he loses it)

In the hunt for #5 / #6:

Morejon (L) (has the stuff but short on innings, results)

Groome (L) (prospect with limited AAA time … may need more AAA)

Knehr: AAA/ML experience (not great results, not sure at skill set)

Avila AAA/ML experience (question his ML ceiling given take off the 40 man at one point).

Teheran … reviewed above … limited innings over the last three years

__________________

Clearly need a reliable additional SP that can be effective and pitch innings … allow all of all the “in the hunt” options to provide a #6 and further develop in AAA as call-up insurance. Even if we believe that two of the “in the hunt” options could be effective in 2023 … can’t risk waiting until the end of ST to lock down that #5 SP … so should go FA.

On the other hand, IF the Padres can see two of those five “in the hunt” ready to assume an effective #5/#6 role … might the Padres take the gamble and pivot to signing two “bigger” bats to fill out the offense and just bludgeon the opposition in support of the top four SP.

 

You can add Martinez to your hunt list.

No, Martinez is IN (like it or not) to start the season … he will be starting … Padres would not have signed him to that contract without that as the intent.

Now, mid-season ????? … but would expect he would have to be really under-performing to get bumped out of the starting rotation given the low odds that two or three of the “in the hunt” guys prove better.

I know the narrative is that Martinez was ineffective as a SP … but we are talking a #5 at worst and in 2022 he made 10 starts (averaged 5.2 innings / start) with a respectable 4.30 ERA all coming by June 18th to start his return to the US. Have no belief that any of the “in the hunt” options can establish themselves as better option in ST even if the Padres sign a #4 (or better) via FA.

Also, would not be surprised the Padres start with a six man rotation and do the same as last season and move to five mid-season. Then a different decision based on performance.