Quote from MrPadre19 on November 19, 2022, 7:09 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 19, 2022, 6:58 pm

I think Spotrac is missing Tatis's money in their calculation. Roster Resource has us just under 230m after the Alfaro non-tender.

No it’s in there too…$24,285,417

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 19, 2022, 9:07 pm

I see it listed, but I don't think it's in the final calculation. We know the actual number should be around 230m and that makes up the gap. Their calculations were off right after the suspension too. No matter the reason we know 206m isn't accurate.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2022, 3:28 am

Have we had any FA signings yet? NOT of the teams bringing their players back..but actual FA signings.?

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2022, 3:35 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2022, 3:28 am

Have we had any FA signings yet? NOT of the teams bringing their players back..but actual FA signings.?

Tyler Anderson, SP (LAD to LAA)

Nick Anderson, RP (TB to ATL)

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2022, 4:08 am

I read the following as more “interesting” as an indicator as to how some may value the Padre FA … just not as an accurate indicator of projected contracts in the current market. Note that this is a computer analysis to create market value … and pure computer generated numbers come with a lot of cautions.

Profar … 6 years / $15MM AAV … no way BUT that may be what Boras is selling

Bell … 4 years / $14MM AAV

Manaea … 4 years / $12MM AAV

Clevinger … 3 years / $10MM AAV

Drury … 2 years / $9MM AAV

I find all these higher than I would expect … especially the years.

However, in the opposite direction they have

Abreu … 2 years … $13MM AAV

I would not believe the predictive value of this model for actual signings BUT does provide a case for one side or the other to position in negotiations.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2022, 5:10 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2022, 4:08 am

I read the following as more “interesting” as an indicator as to how some may value the Padre FA … just not as an accurate indicator of projected contracts in the current market. Note that this is a computer analysis to create market value … and pure computer generated numbers come with a lot of cautions.

Profar … 6 years / $15MM AAV … no way BUT that may be what Boras is selling

Bell … 4 years / $14MM AAV

Manaea … 4 years / $12MM AAV

Clevinger … 3 years / $10MM AAV

Drury … 2 years / $9MM AAV

I find all these higher than I would expect … especially the years.

However, in the opposite direction they have

Abreu … 2 years … $13MM AAV

I would not believe the predictive value of this model for actual signings BUT does provide a case for one side or the other to position in negotiations.

I think the approach should be Sign SENGA... and then worry about adding Bats to be honest.. SENGA answers so many ? for 2023 and for the next 1/2 Decade.. He is like that corner piece in a puzzle that all of the sudden puts it all into perspective..

I find Drury's proj $$ so far out of reality ..I mean has he even sniffed .700 OPS BEFORE 2022? He is at max a $5mil play.. with team signing him expecting similar results to 2022.. and not Spring Training minimum wage Invite player pre 2022.. I like Drury a lot.. but at $9mil .. we can do a lot better (less risky proven record) later on the FA process.. say early Feb .. "leftover bin' someone like Peralta 1/8-9 or even Candelario 1/5 type ..Hell even Luke 1/5.. did better than Bell/Wil and Drury as a Padre in 2022

As Padres 2022

Voit .733 OPS

Drury .724

Bell .587

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2022, 5:45 am

Agreee that a legit SP ( Senga,Walker, Taillon) should be the top priority.

Always wonder if the report of Preller’s top targets are just leaks for misdirection while he really is pursuing a different targets.

Also, he has a scorecard of FA he likes (and his price for them) … been around long enough to gauge if certain FA are not going to come down to his cap and goes a different direction early while his next targets are still on the board and potentially in his price target range. Just will not fixate on one player or even position if he sees more than one need.

Plus, we have no real idea his pool of money to spend. So if enough, could be trying to lock down a bat as a priority now (because they may be signing early) … then wait for the SP to sort a bit among Senga, Walker, Taillon (if he sees them as interchangeable) and they are ready to sign before making one his top priority.

I could see the 3 top SP being hard signs … and take their time … since most top teams list SP a priority … a lot of room for going back and forth among the teams in negotiation to get their price while not particularly worried about not getting signed. Would take one team to “overpay” probably to get one to early sign.

Could be the flip side on someone like Abreu … at this age and with few teams prioritizing a 1B/DH he may not want to have this drag out and have the pressure on him to get a deal at near his price. So a “good” offer may get it done … some history to show that some early signs get the better deals … usually the group between the highly ranked and the lower valued. Abreu may be in that group.

A lot of IF/THEN but if (because he can) he clears getting that one additional impact bat he can back off seeking hitters (go for additional near ST with lower cost pieces) then really work the SP negotiations with a clear view of the money he has left and maybe larger basket of targets. SP negotiations should be the hardest.

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2022, 9:42 am

Just a one off thought on pitching in 2024 with an abundance of RP that could be shifted between the Padres and AAA. Padres have seven that are just over the service time to reduce control / get to arbitration sooner. IF the season plays out and they spend some time in the minors they may not get enough days on the ML roster to move up a full year. If I did the calculations right:

Morejon needs to be in the minors for about 4 weeks, if so he will still have 3 years control after this season. Note: Preller will not make that move for that purpose …not in his character … but if the Padres want Morejon to become a SP after minimal innings last season (and before) there could be a legit strategic argument to start him in 2023 in AAA to get him in starting condition and as a LHP he is covered in the pen with LHRP: Hader, Pomeranz, and Hill. If built up early he may be ready for a call-up if Martinez begins to fail, if there is an injury, etc.

Also in similar situations are Wilson (about 2 weeks); Crismatt (about 6 weeks); Knehr (about 3 months); Avila (about 6 weeks); Weathers (about 3 weeks); and Kerr (about 2 months). Could just naturally happen … and not probably an important gain if happens except for maybe Morejon and Wilson who seem to have the highest ceilings of that group. For all the extra year control gained may make the better trade chips.

Again doubt Preller forces that situation but something to watch if it naturally plays out.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 20, 2022, 10:06 am

If you listened or read the post-season comments of the Padres players after they lost to Philadelphia, one theme that came through is the chemistry this team had throughout the year.  This is typical of a person or team that struggles and then overcomes those challenges to do something special.  Padres lost a lot of team chemistry type players in free agency/trades during the season/offseason.  There was Hosmer, of course, but also Profar, Myers, Stammen, Alfaro, Manaea and Clevinger; I'm not so sure that Bell or Drury were there long enough to establish that much of a tight-knit bond with the rest of the players.

So, I think one of the challenges for Preller, and he usually puts this near the top of his factors to trade for or sign free agents, is how that player would fit into the Padres clubhouse.  That might the available pool of players a tiny but smaller but I'm hoping that whoever we get to fill out our roster has those same qualities that we admired while they played for us.  For this reason, it may be hard to get Abreu out of Chicago but it might be easier to get Senga to San Diego.  In fact, wouldn't mind low ball offers for Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, Dominican Summer League Padres teammates from way back in 2012 and still under 30!  A deteriorating batting stroke and an unbelievable number of injuries, respectively, have kept these guys from reaching their peak but may be worth a gamble after checking them out physically.  Franmil, especially, is Mr. Chemistry!