Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 31, 2022, 8:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 31, 2022, 8:14 am

My concern is the potential magnitude of Padre FA after the season ... then working through the priority of signing replacements and the cumulative cost (if other teams are also pursuing those FA). Keep in mind every team that is losing a FA probably is in the market to get a replacement along with other teams. Consider:

1. Scheduled FA (7): Musgrove; Manaea; Clevinger; Rogers; Johnson; Stammen; Myers
2. Opt Out potential FA (4): Hosmer; Profar; Martinez; Suarez

Re-filling those 11 slots if the extreme occurs with even equivalent talent will be a challenge give 29 other teams will also be in the market pushing the cost up. $100MM will be gone quickly for just 5-6 replacements if they go quality.

What triggered this look was the thought of dealing a "controlled" piece (be one on the 26 man or a prospect that may be needed in 2023) for a "rental" to win now (maybe). That just makes the 2023 problem worse. So, if Preller is dealing he may be better served targeting controllable adds (at a high acquisition cost) than rentals then having to pay up next winter for replacements (if he can sign them).

Internal fill ins

CJ Abrams OF

Eustury Ruiz OF

Pomz (back)

Baez

Morejon

Batten (utility)

Adams

Campusano

 

That would leave us 4 spots to fill with roughly $100 mil in payroll available

 

So

Josh Bell 4/50

Musgrove 7/140

Rogers 3/33

JD Martinez 2/45

Tyler Naquin 3/21

Eflin 3/40

 

Trade Voit for Laureano (Oak)

Trade for Adel (LAA)

 

Still got $$ to play with

 

SP

1- Yu

2- Musgrove

3- Gore

4- Snell

5- Eglin

CL Rogers

 

1B Bell

2B crone

SS Tatis

3B Machado

DH JD Martinez

LF Adel/Ruiz

CF CJ Abrams/Grishman

RF Naquin/Ruiz

 

Color me blind but that looks like an improved Team ... a little inexperienced but with a more veteran bench (Kim/Grish/Beatty) than what we currently have...SP is only 5 deep...BP looks at least the same with the adds from within - the loses...

I always prefer more controllable adds at the deadline but with that said opportunities to win it all don't come often and if we could add Contreras C.. JD Martinez DH and Naquin CF and upgrade 3 positions while strengthening our bench at the same time... we could match up P and lineup vs anyone

Quote from BoosterSD on May 31, 2022, 9:06 am

I dont think that LAA is going to give up on Adell.

I think you are really light on what Bell and Musgrove will get via FA.

No need for Eglin, we have Weathers.

Abrams will probably be ready, I dont think Ruiz will be though.

And I personally think that Campusano is a 4A bat, and not much of a catcher.

And as much as many dont appreciate Myers, I still think he is a very good OFer, just not $20M per season. I fully expect to see him resign in SD, but for closer to the $9M ± per season range.

If you can get Naquin at around $7M per season, that could be a nice add.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 31, 2022, 9:32 am

I think Campusano can give us what Alfaro does offensively…probably more if he gets regular playing time.

I don’t know how much defense we would give up though?

We have to sign Musgrove almost no matter the cost.

We are still only 2 months in but considering the production (or lack there of) from our outfielders I have to assume

Swapping Profar and Grisham…..or Profar/Myers with Abrams/Mazara or Abrams/Ruiz can’t be much of a drop off…and could be a decent improvement.
Now that’s not to say that Myers and/or Grisham may still hit this season.

Hoping…but will have to see it to believe it.

I have more faith in Myers considering his “decent” history of production.

I hope we can re-sign him.

I don’t like not having long term Padres on the team….for what that’s worth.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 31, 2022, 9:44 am

I guess I am not as optimistic about all the "internal" options being productive to playoff quality as soon as 2023. Also, signing all the FA you suggest ... and outbidding other teams ... likely will come at a much higher price tag.

I would have Musgrove as the #1 resign ... SP will continue to be the Padres' key and Musgrove appears to be a top of the rotation piece. Musgrove, Gore, Darvish, Snell as a base in 2023 then be creative with the #5 slot as Morejon, Baez, and Weathers get more time to develop and replace Darvish and Snell in 2024. However, MLB teams need top of the rotation arms and will be heavy on Musgrove who is only 29 ... would not surprise me to see him get $200MM/8 years ($25MM AAV).

Would not have Rogers as a priority ... RP come an go and not a reliable target for long term / high cost deals.

So, more of a focus on hitters and if can't sign enough ... fall back to another SP (maybe Clevinger or Manaea). Would be a tough call here but maybe gamble on Clevinger's health ... when healthy top of the rotation stuff (much better than Manaea) and given recent health should had on a much more team friendly contract (dollars / length).

Finding hitters will be tricky ... would like Martinez as the DH but really expect he and BOST work something out as an extension (or FA re-sign) given is also likely in the playoff picture in 2023. Bell might be a fit as DH (really a poor fielder as I recall) with a Rizzo type contract nearer $15MM per.

I guess if boosting the offense is not in the cards ... go all in on even more strength in pitching?

Quote from 3fingersplit on May 31, 2022, 10:40 am

Do we actually have a hitting coach ?

Quote from fenn68 on May 31, 2022, 11:10 am

Maybe a strength coach?

In a sign of how bad hitting is in MLB ... the Padres are #11 in MLB on OBP ... 19 teams WORSE than the Padres.

What is killing them is abysmal SLG ... 27th in MLB. Always blame some of that on April / May in SD and the marine layer at night ... blame a lot on not having Tatis' power ... then question the power shortage from Cronenworth, Grisham, Myers, Hosmer.

I would blame the new ball but every team has that issue. UNLESS the Padres had more "warning track" power hitters than we thought and that is now exposed. Doesn't explain the lack of doubles / triples.

I have been around long enough to know that hitting coaches never really change a team full of hitters ... who generally don't listen (or just cannot change) as ML players. Just a reality of ML baseball hitters.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 31, 2022, 11:26 am

Myers is hitting around  his career BA ..he just not slg

Quote from BoosterSD on May 31, 2022, 11:39 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 31, 2022, 11:26 am

Myers is hitting around  his career BA ..he just not slg

The entire team is not slugging, as evidence look at yesterdays game. Out hit the Cards 11 to 10, but while we only had 2 doubles for extra base hits, whereas STL had a double, and two HRs both with a man on base, there is the runs right there.

Voit is one of the biggest disappointments in this category IMO.

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on May 31, 2022, 3:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 31, 2022, 11:10 am

Maybe a strength coach?

In a sign of how bad hitting is in MLB ... the Padres are #11 in MLB on OBP ... 19 teams WORSE than the Padres.

What is killing them is abysmal SLG ... 27th in MLB. Always blame some of that on April / May in SD and the marine layer at night ... blame a lot on not having Tatis' power ... then question the power shortage from Cronenworth, Grisham, Myers, Hosmer.

I would blame the new ball but every team has that issue. UNLESS the Padres had more "warning track" power hitters than we thought and that is now exposed. Doesn't explain the lack of doubles / triples.

I have been around long enough to know that hitting coaches never really change a team full of hitters ... who generally don't listen (or just cannot change) as ML players. Just a reality of ML baseball hitters.

No offense Fenn but I have to disagree with you

Hitting coaches should be able to pick up flaws in a swing and I'll use Cronenworth as an example.....he seems to really want to hit the HR and his approach with his hands is a palm up palm down swing instead of a little more top hand....Palm to the sky, hit it high, Palm straight and hit it great.....his swing has changed since last year, I don't need the HR but gap doubles work. The other thing is too many guys are rolling off the ball on their front foot...when you spin on your heel your front shoulder opens up instead of hitting against a solid base.