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2022 MLB Draft
#61 · July 16, 2022, 5:08 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 4:48 pmSo we can take one of the top 15 players in College or High School and we should run to the podium for a one tool player?
I’m not saying you’re wrong…but counting on one tool to continue to develop for four years and levels without any others to fall back on seem pretty risky “in the first round”.
Especially when our system is mostly without promising pitching.
Obviously I’d prefer a pitcher with 3 promising pitches or a position player with “at least” 3 well above average tools……in the first round.
Berry is one of those Top 15 in most ranking … so he may be the only one left when the Padres draft at #15.
Boils down to how good the scouts see his hitting and power potential … maybe just two skills but two skills hard to find this low in the selection process. I tend to overweight the hitting skill set and, depending on the defensive position under weight the other skills (e.g. a catcher has arm worth more / speed less vs a LF). Few have all the skills.
Should note that a couple of the SS (HS/College) also have some quality hitting skills and more defensive skills but no power and, based on Preller history may be more appealing if there at #15. Either way it is the hit skill that is important to me.
Now comparing that to a SP prospect … Padres have to have their proprietary ranking strategy … no idea.
#62 · July 16, 2022, 5:38 pm
It is pretty rare that the Top 15 actually go (in any order) in the first 15 picks. Never know what each team sees in the prospects or in many cases the ability to sign the higher ranked prospect. Every year it seems that we see someone ranked in the 20s go before #15 (Rocker could be a real case this year) but expect a few others.
So a good chance that a few higher rated (on national list) are there at #15 potentially creating a “surprise” pick by the Padres if those players are high on the Padres’ list.
Then again it is the Padres’ list that is the key … and they may take someone rated nationally well below #15 because their scouts see more in him.
Be prepared to be shocked and amazed in about 24 hours.
#63 · July 16, 2022, 6:34 pm
I have to believe there is at least one hitter close to having his hit tool that can also run or throw or play an average defense.
Again if we take him I’ll trust our scouts..….I just prefer a guy with more above average tools in the 1st round.
#64 · July 16, 2022, 6:50 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 6:34 pmI have to believe there is at least one hitter close to having his hit tool that can also run or throw or play an average defense.
Again if we take him I’ll trust our scouts..….I just prefer a guy with more above average tools in the 1st round.
Agree. If not interested in power pretty sure there will be good hitter with better supporting tools. Plus if it is a SS, can surface in other positions to help the Padres or eventually be an important trade chip (or allow trading a different Padre).
#65 · July 16, 2022, 7:01 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 16, 2022, 6:34 pmI have to believe there is at least one hitter close to having his hit tool that can also run or throw or play an average defense.
Again if we take him I’ll trust our scouts..….I just prefer a guy with more above average tools in the 1st round.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
Take a look for yourself. All the great bats are top 10. A plus bat with plus power? You aren't finding that after prospect #9. You don't get a Robert Hassell type of bat, with power, at #15. Not unless he is both unathletic and he falls in the draft. I don't necessarily want the guy or think he will be available. If he is the Padres should take him. I would be happy with Lesko too.
#66 · July 16, 2022, 7:13 pm
I’d wager if you go back to past pre-draft rankings these are wrong way more than they are right.
Esp.hit and power numbers.
Much easier to predict how speed and defensive attributes will translate through the next four levels than the hit tool especially and even the power rating.
I think I’d take my chances that Chase Delauter will add 5 to his hit and power tools and hold onto his better numbers in every other tool.
Or take the athlete in Jett Williams or Zach Neto and his 60 hit tool.
Guess we’ll find out in about 22 hours!
#67 · July 16, 2022, 7:15 pm
Sure would like one of those top 4 though eh?
#68 · July 16, 2022, 8:01 pm
I will just make my early guess that when all is said and done Preller takes one of the “injured” SP with top of the rotation potential … highest upside pick.
One (if not all) could be there at #15.
#69 · July 16, 2022, 9:18 pm
Quote from fenn68 on July 16, 2022, 8:01 pmI will just make my early guess that when all is said and done Preller takes one of the “injured” SP with top of the rotation potential … highest upside pick.
One (if not all) could be there at #15.
He could also take a healthy position player in rd 1 (Berry) under slot and then double up with 2 injured pitchers next 2 picks and have plenty of $$ for all 3 to be happy
#70 · July 17, 2022, 3:04 am
There is a chance that Preller could land one of the injured players under slot at #15. Sort of a strategic agreement with the agent seeing that player sliding to a much lower slot pick if the teams immediately following the kid … based on their own priorities … will draft others … some teams don’t draft injured / some teams draft bats in the 1st round. Agents have a good sense of which team is on their player.
Prielipp is one of those high ceiling injured players and since out of college less leverage even though apparently nearly recovered. Rooker, I doubt with Boras as his agent, but he really has poor options after not signing last year … Japan? Lesko is the wild card since he is going to miss 2023 and don’t know his college commitment but injured not sure the college recruitment status. His agent may want him to get as much as he can get now and begin working on his rehab with a ML organization … maybe with better experience in TJ recovery.
Doubt any make it to #37 … some of the better teams in the late 1st round should be well positioned to take the gamble as the high ceiling alternatives start to fade.