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2022 MLB Draft
#1 · May 22, 2022, 5:51 am
looking and ready some stuff this draft is set up nicely for #15 (Pads pick)
All Pitchers (except 2) which were projected top 10 P for this draft are injured or recovering from TJ surgery so a good one (although medical red flagged) could be available for us at #15..Better gamble maybe is to see if one of those drops to our 2nd rd pick where the gamble is less risky.
6 College advanced bats are projected to go before #15, As are 2 to 3 Pitchers.. that leaves us 1 of the top 6 HS position players here...
My pick .. Lefty Baby Crawford CF (Carl's son I believe Justin is his 1st name)..similar to dad..big time Speed and Defense with a great lefty bat and developing pop....
Should some of these injured P go in the top 15 a College advanced bat could drop to us at #15.. or a better HS spec..although Crawford is one of the highest risers in this draft and could ultimately prove to best pick here for us...
Please share your thoughts and who you like at #15
#2 · May 22, 2022, 7:23 am
This is a tough analysis … #15 slot is really a grey area.
At this point a lot of good write-ups of prospects that are probably more optimistic than reality.
Most of the mocks have a lot of hitters going before the Padres pick … is that because the arms are not that high projection? Does that suggest that any hitter still around at #15 has some defects … since unlikely there are that may quality projections in one draft?
Recently Preller has opted for HS options in the 1st rounds … so maybe the “past” history of Quantrill / Lauer is just that … in the past. Plus hitters has been his preference but he drafter earlier and this draft has sucked up the high projection bats by #15.
Combine all that and see a HS arm at #15 … and a good chance one coming off TJ to get the max upside option. Padres and other teams seem more comfortable with young arms returning from TJ … so maybe the “risk” is not that much more than any HS arm.
Side: nothing to back this but worried Crawford is that “Uber athlete” that all scouts love … he can do it all and will be a super star if he hitting comes around … then it does not (see Taylor Trammell / Buddy Reed). My bias in a position player is the hit tool being 1st (and most) of the evaluation process for early picks.
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JasonE135
#3 · May 22, 2022, 5:04 pm
The Padres amateur ranks are currently short of pitchers with ACE upside. We seem to have a ton of possible 3-5 starters in our minors. With so many good hitters at the top of this draft the first pitcher is predicted to go around pick 10. That could leave one of the top 3 pitchers this year sitting there at #15. At least 1 of Brock Porter, Dylan Lesko, Connor Prielipp, Jackson Ferris, Gabriel Hughes or Robbie Snelling should be available. All feature ACE upside and offer tremendous value for the middle of the first round. 2 of the 6 have had TJ surgery. I am personally hoping for Hughes or Snelling, who haven't had TJ.
I agree with you fenn about taking position players with quality bats over physical tools. I remember far too many Donovan Tates, Buddy Reeds and Michael Gettys. Perhaps Cam Collier could be available. An excellent bat with natural hitting skills. He is a 3B (which the Padres need in the minors) with average power which could possibly cause him to drop?
We will know a lot more by the end of the high school/college baseball seasons. Half of these guys could drop out of the first round and others may move up.
#4 · May 22, 2022, 5:36 pm
A lot of people seem to think Lesko could be the pick.
AJ’s reputation of not being afraid of pitchers who have had TJ precedes him.
Any College pitchers worth a top 15 pick that could be available?
#5 · May 22, 2022, 6:13 pm
Here are a few links so you can get an idea of where things are at right now:
#6 · May 22, 2022, 7:57 pm
LHP Ferris sounds intriguing..2 predicted him to us at #15
#7 · May 26, 2022, 7:28 am
Selfishly I hope for Ivan Melendez in either the 4th or 5th round. Currently leading the NCAA in hrs with 28. Plays half of his games in a pitcher friendly park. 6-3, 225, first baseman.
#8 · May 26, 2022, 9:16 am
With how many of the top pitching prospects have gone down with injuries I wonder if there's a scenario where AJ just says F it and drafts as many of them as possible. Some of them are going to fall and it could be an opportunity to add a lot of talent for a team that is comfortable with the risk.
#9 · May 26, 2022, 10:06 am
Sure would not surprise me if Preller took one or more arms coming off injury. Clearly was not afraid to use a Top 10 pick on Quantrill or sign Clevinger and Richards to deals while injured. He took a West Virginia pitcher last draft recovering from injury.
The improvement in the surgery and recovery on young arms has been advanced enough to the point where there is a higher confidence level the pitchers not only can fully recover but may actually be better (at least to the next time).
The only limiting factor may be other teams drafting ahead of the Padres take the same philosophy and go for the high upside on an injured arm that had been projected higher before the injury.
At pick 15, the gamble might really make sense vs a “healthy” option that got passed by 14 teams.
#10 · May 26, 2022, 11:32 am
Where is the P from Tennesse sloted at.. he had TJ already and is purely a reliever but 105mph cone on now... Ben Joyce