Quote from Randy Manese on August 17, 2021, 10:43 am

I would argue that the Padres have developed players, both on the current team and those we have traded away.  For example, Tatis Jr. did not have a minor league at bat when acquired;  Cronenworth never played a major league game before the trade with Tampa Bay; and Grisham just saw limited action with Milwaukee before being obtained.  These players have "developed" after being acquired as have several others.  With those traded away, apparently the Padres developed them sufficiently so that they were attractive to other teams - Franmil Reyes, Luis Urias, Gabriel Arias, Luis Patino, Blake Hunt, Omar Cruz, Xavier Edwards, Joey Cantillo among others.   Don't disagree we should add superior coaches but everyone is trying to do that and a lot of times there are factors other than just money.

Had it not been for devastating injuries that affected almost every facet of this team in 2021, Padres were in position to have a dominating season.  Padres are still developing Abrams, Campusano, Hassell, Gore, Angeles, Mears, Valenzuela and others who will fit into that window of opportunity to compete for a title.  That's the goal and that's what has to be balanced year after year for as long as there is that window.

For Padres' fans, even though 2021 may become very frustrating, there is continued hope because of the talent acquired and the talent that is on the way.  Patience is difficult to maintain but these past two years have shown what the Padres could become if they avoid injury  (like the Giants, who have have pitchers having career years and virtually no key long lasting injuries) and just have the players on board perform to their expectations without dealing with nagging or serious injury.  We are still seeing growth from Tatis, Cronenworth and Grisham; Kim should get better, and Machado and Nola should be solid.  Hosmer and Myers are what they are until they are not here anymore.  For 2022,  the team will undoubtedly makeover its bullpen, add starting pitching and deepen the bench as several free agents leave and some players are not offered a contract prior to arbitration.

Quote from fenn68 on August 17, 2021, 12:02 pm

Agree they will strengthen the bench and RP ... but probably not SP. Pham, Melancon, and Hudson FA and the Padres will deal with club options on Johnson, Stammen, and Marisnick. If as I estimate that the payroll will stay about the same (top 5 already) not a lot of money to throw down ... and no obvious replacement for Pham (an a potential DH) or Melancon as the closer ... money will be targeted for those spots.

SP almost returns itself ... not sure an abundance of alternatives will be around better. Padres have to bet on health first and then improvement ... at least to being 2022. Consider:

Under contract:

Darvish (2 years at $20MM / 19MM)

Snell (2 years at $13MM / 16MM)

Clevinger (1 year at $8MM)

In Arbitration:

Musgrove (Arb 3 off $4.5MM ... should be near $8MM)

Lamet (Arb 3 off $4.2MM ... should be closer to $5MM due to lost 2021)

Paddack (Arb 1 off league minimum ... should be $1-2MM)

Weathers (league minimum)

Will be hard to move the bigger money contracts (if they would go that route) without eating money taking away funds for there upgrades. That is 7 arms ... maybe only 6 with Weathers back to the minors. To start 2022 target 5 starters and one to the pen (could be any of Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack depending on health of all 6).

As this year began ... that COULD a very elite SP staff if they pitch to their past successes. We though adding Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove ... plus Clevinger in 2020 would create something special ... so why should we think adding different "body" of any past skill level will have a better result.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 17, 2021, 1:40 pm

When's Profar back?

Quote from fenn68 on August 17, 2021, 1:51 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on August 17, 2021, 1:40 pm

When's Profar back?

He is rehabbing in AAA … played in a couple of games. So, I guess could be any day now but probably Friday for the home stand.

The one issue will be who gets optioned / DFA … or a new IL. With Arrieta added … one RP is down and given the SP they need all the RP they can handle (14 pitchers on the current 26 man). On the other hand the bench is Caratini, Frazier, Kim, and Marisnick … so if it not a pitcher optioned does that make it Marisnick?

I guess they could keep him in AAA until Sept 1 and return him when the active roster expands to 28 … but that same logic may be needed for Darvish, Paddack, and/or Lamet?

Quote from fenn68 on August 17, 2021, 5:43 pm

Just for to put this era of the Padres in perspective (also know most don’t care) but …

2020-21 is producing a .577 winning percentage (181 games) under the managing of Jayce Tingle and the GM Preller.

That is the better than any year in Padres’ 50+ year history except for the World Series year 1998 (.605).

Tingler has the highest winning percentage of any Padre manager (except for the 1-0 Skinner):

1. Tingler (1+ years) .577

2. McKeon (3 years) .541

3. Williams (4 years) .520 (HOF)

4. Riddock (3 years) .508

5. Bochy (12 years) .494

6. Black (9 years) .477

As for Preller he created this winning team coming off a putrid farm system when he arrived and seasons of 94-92-96-92 losses to build this winning team in 2020-21.

Yeh, the Padres are frustrating now but hard to blame Tingler and Preller after what happened in 2020 and up to this All-Star break. For me … at this point …it is all about the injuries / under performance of the SP.

 

Quote from 84padres on August 18, 2021, 5:22 am

I was firmly in team Bochy before Tingler was hired. I don't have anything against Tingler but given our window of contention I would welcome Bochy and his proven winning experience .

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2021, 6:39 am

Quote from 84padres on August 18, 2021, 5:22 am

I was firmly in team Bochy before Tingler was hired. I don't have anything against Tingler but given our window of contention I would welcome Bochy and his proven winning experience .

Can’t argue against Bochy .. but apparently HE was not ready to return (hence he is not managing anywhere in 2021).

Then again, LAA hired the much praised Madden (and LAA coach in the past) after success in TB and with the Cubs … that did not take the LAA to the playoffs. I can recall the genius of Stengel when with the Yankees then the comedy act that followed with the Mets (note he was not all that great of a manager before the NYY).

Yes there are good managers and bad managers … but most success is player driven and maybe managers on good teams only contribute marginally.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2021, 7:17 am

So frustrating.

Losing to teams we should dominate....even without great pitching.

This season is slipping away due to the difference in our record against the Rockies and Diamondbacks alone.

As I pointed out a few weeks ago it's only going to get worse.

The Reds play about 30 of their last 40 games against bad teams......we play SF,LAd,Atl,Hou,Phi

I thought we needed an 8 game lead on the Reds by the end of August....it seems we will be lucky to have any lead at all.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on August 18, 2021, 10:48 am

"Agree they will strengthen the bench and RP ... but probably not SP. Pham, Melancon, and Hudson FA and the Padres will deal with club options on Johnson, Stammen, and Marisnick. If as I estimate that the payroll will stay about the same (top 5 already) not a lot of money to throw down ... and no obvious replacement for Pham (an a potential DH) or Melancon as the closer ... money will be targeted for those spots.

SP almost returns itself ... not sure an abundance of alternatives will be around better. Padres have to bet on health first and then improvement ... at least to being 2022. "

My fear is that betting on the health of the current Padres' staff may take us right where we are today - no fall back starters when the front line pitchers are not performing due to injury or inconsistency.

Here are my concerns:

Darvish, just turned 35.  Was extremely effective early but back and hip injuries started the downturn in mid to late June and he started getting hit hard when he missed his location as evidenced by HR rate over the past two months.  Hadn't had back severe back problems since 2017 but Kershaw is evidence that once these back injuries settle in they are hard to shake.  Darvish keeps himself in great shape and the bet is that with ample rest and rehab/treatment, he can regain that Cy Young form we saw early in the 2021 season.  However, he is getting older and has a lot of mileage on his frame/arm, so need to be cautious of what can happen when he can't perform to his top of the order/ace capabilities.

Snell:  Actually, no concerns with him physically just his mind-set on the mound.  Has to trust his stuff and remain aggressive.  I see him coming around as this season ends and looking much better in 2022 and thereafter.   Potential to still be one of the best pitchers around.

Musgrove:  No notable injuries this year, but has had previous right shoulder problems and, with the exception of 2019, has never pitched over 150 innings.  Subsequently, in 2020 had slow start due to right triceps injury and in this season is on track to go well over those 150 innings - will that impact his 2022 season?  Got my fingers crossed because he is just coming into his own and can be right up there with Darvish and Clevinger as anchors to the staff from the right hand side.

Clevinger: Will have to come back slowly from TJ but I thinks he loves it here and will probably want to stay after the 2022 season.  If that's not happening, then will likely be a trade piece at the trading deadline.  I like what he showed in 2020 and can see him rounding into form by mid-season but every arm is different, so have to be cautious even though reports on his rehab are positive.  Can he give us 150 innings in 2022?

Lamet:  When healthy, he is lights out but we have no idea of whether he even can pitch in 2022 or whether he needs another surgery.  Even if he can pitch, should he become a closer or long relief to save his fragile arm?  My hunch is that he is done being a starter even though I hope that is not what happens.

Paddack:  Probably bounce back well from the oblique injury next year but which Paddack will we get on the mound.  Shown flashes this year after a horrible 2020 but still not lock-down dependable, in my opinion.  Another candidate for the bullpen not because of health, but because of a lack of a quality 3rd pitch that can lengthen his starts.

Weathers:  Needs to go down to the minors to develop into a starter, otherwise, long relief.  Don't see him as major contributor to starting staff in 2022.

Morejon:  TJ surgery rehab will probably keep him out until mid-season and then it's a toss-up whether he will be effective.  Are we now expecting him to go more than 3 innings and 50 pitches, when he couldn't do it before?

Gore:  Should be major league ready stuff-wise, but got to get his head on straight.  A wildcard.

For the above reasons, I can see the Padres adding at least one, maybe two starters.  This will give the young/injured time to develop and recover fully, especially if Lamet and/or Paddack move to the bullpen and replace guys like Stammen, Melancon, Hudson and Johnson.  Pomeranz won't be back for awhile, so possibly is where Morejon and Weathers fit in.

Who are my choices for the back-end of the rotation?  All potential free agents this coming period: Tomoyuki Sugano (if fully recovered from injury), Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jon Gray in that order, the latter because it detracts from Colorado.  In trade, maybe Maeda?  These FA pitchers should be available for 10M or less.