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2021 Season
#401 · April 25, 2021, 11:03 am
Quote from fenn68 on April 25, 2021, 6:29 amA plus initial showing by Northcraft .... 2 innings (1 hit) against the #1 team in MLB in a tight game is encouraging.
SOOO cool & rewarding for a 30 y.o. (close to 31!) debut! Think he (& Ramirez) probably just stay put until Lamet & Kela return.
But I'd love to see Brian O'Grady rotated up as a matchup/LH bench bat even if it was just for the Giants series. Maybe go with full deep pen to cover the Paddack & Weathers @ AZ starts, but then go "down" 1 bullpen guy (going to get displaced by Lamet soon anyway) for the Giants series to have a more "full" bench. But he would almost certainly go back down when Lamet up, so likely too "cute".
Campusano should go to AA to work with Gore, etc.
#402 · April 25, 2021, 1:57 pm
Actually for the full month of May ... with all the off days (and if the most of the SP go 6ish) might be able to stick with one less RP for the extra PH. Offsetting that approach is the potential return from IL of Lamet, Williams (knee), Altavilla (forearm), and Kela (shoulder) with only Northcraft and Ramirez with options (Hill too but just would be surprised if goes).
Sort of a "day by day" decision making process ... would not be surprised if a "new" IL issue pops up soon given how heath has been a issue across all MLB.
No idea what the medical staff thinks but the return of the 3 IL RP may be unlikely ... at least in the near term. "forearm tightness" for Altavilla could be a real issue (see Morejon). Kela has had a real history of IL stints ... couple of 60 day jobs ... and covered elbow, forearm, shoulder, and knee in his brief career. Padres took a low cost gamble with him so might have guessed this was coming. Williams' knee could go a lot of ways.
So, with potentially less pressure on getting them back .... no rush giving the "extra" rest and recovery time ... and (IF they can return) fresh for June and beyond.
#403 · April 25, 2021, 2:18 pm
Assuming O'Grady is looking good at the alternate site ... might the Padres consider at some point calling him up as the a LHH OF/PH option and DFA Mateo. They have Kim as the RHH INF/PH option. Profar switch hits and is both INF and OF.
I know the idea of Mateo's skills is appealing ... but not seeing his production so far. Could O'Grady provide more at this time?
Without any minor league options ... should clear waivers. Something to consider it they stay at 14 pitchers (or go back if the go to 13 for May then return).
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#404 · April 26, 2021, 11:13 am
Quote from fenn68 on April 25, 2021, 2:18 pmAssuming O'Grady is looking good at the alternate site ... might the Padres consider at some point calling him up as the a LHH OF/PH option and DFA Mateo. They have Kim as the RHH INF/PH option. Profar switch hits and is both INF and OF.
I know the idea of Mateo's skills is appealing ... but not seeing his production so far. Could O'Grady provide more at this time?
Without any minor league options ... should clear waivers. Something to consider it they stay at 14 pitchers (or go back if the go to 13 for May then return).
I expect Pham to be IL (blessing in disguise), and O'Grady to be recalled with 5 RH SP in a row the next 2 series. You read my mind. It's hard to see the Pads changing it any time soon with the likely slow "hold your breath" return of Lamet making a deep bullpen a necessity likely into June...
...But I am NOT liking our current 4 man bench; but really the 4 man bench in general. Nola will improve it significantly. But Mateo's value is "blocked" by the return of Profar (& addition of Kim). On our current (yesterday) 26-man roster, Mateo is the 4th CF (behind Pham & Profar), 3rd LF (same), 3rd RF (Profar), 4th 2B (Kim, Profar), and 4th SS (Kim, Jake).
On THIS team, he's NOT a defensive sub. He earned the roster spot with a great ST, but when & where is he ever going to play on this team? He doesn't even "work" as the speed/PR guy on a 4-man bench, because you have to reserve the backup C, so he ends up getting used in a less ideal way like PH in the 5th inning or something.
It's extremely obvious at this point that both Pham (33) & Myers (30, knee) are going to need significant time off through the season. Before anyone annoints Profar as the LH to play vs RHP, in his last 15 games: .180/.317.240 last 7: .174/.240./217 (vs LHP all season: 1-15, 2BB = .067/.167/.067). Pham & Profar in combined 165 PA: 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR.... Have to get more production from LF.
Pads paid O'Grady 650K/300K in Minors > any other pre-arb player (Paddack, Grisham, Jake). He has been a mediocre BA, high OBP guy in Minors (high K's & BB)... BUT he offers the POSSIBILITY of power; 28 HR/30 2B/1 3B in AAA International League in 2019 in 429 AB. 14 HR/21 2B/ 6 HR in East coast AAA/AA 2018 in 322 AB = XBH every 7.5 AB over large 2 year sample.
He had a great 2020 ST with Rays where he got overshadowed during the season by some guy named "Arozarena", and a great 2021 ST with us where he got overshadowed by Marcano's insane MLB leading performance (plus Kim's struggles).
Let's get O'Grady up & see what he can do. Down the road a little, I STILL think Pham will bounce back; but would like to see Kim EITHER playing much more at 2B in MLB, or get optioned down to play every day & find his bat. That could open door for O'Grady. I would hold Mateo as long as can to see if can utilize his skill set more. EVENTUALLY Would love to in "normal" schedule situations --10 games or less with an off day-- go with a 7-man pen (I know TOUGH with our roster composition & pen ussage so far) & have a bench of: Caratini, Kim, Profar, Mateo, O'Grady... Caratini starting 40%, Kim short side platoon vs LHP @ 2B, Profar used much less; more as LH PH, some OF vs RHP, some 2B vs RHP with Jake @ SS for Tatis down days, most importantly as an injury fill in (as he has been so far). O'Grady regularly getting starts in Corner OF vs RHP, and Mateo more of a deep bench PR. Could "rotate" O'Grady up/down for an 8th RP when needed. In the long run, as I've argued previously, Mateo (& Javy Guerra) may simply be a better "fit" on a 2nd division team that can "afford" to let him play while losing to see what he can become. Minor trade/s?
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#405 · April 26, 2021, 12:36 pm
I am leaning to using Kim a bit more ... especially against LHP to rest Cronenworth but ahead of Profar who is having trouble hitting RH.
I know Cronenworth has a lot of love from the fans BUT maybe his playing time needs to managed a bit more (rest / v LHP) ... but so far he is "streaky". Consider
2020 (Aug): .355 BA
2020 (Sep): .183 BA
2020 (Playoffs): .389 BA
2021 (Apr 1 - 12): .357 BA
2021 (Apr 12 - 25): .188 BA
Yeh, everyone is streaky but maybe some strategic rest (v LHP) will reduce the dips over the course of a 162 game slate. Kim (very small sample size) is 4 for 10 vs LHP. So, leaning not to send down Kim who also covers 3B/SS ... Profar's INF defense is not as good.
IF Pham is IL ... easy to call up O'Grady. IF Lamet returns ... likely Ramirez optioned. However, if Lamet returns but Pham NOT IL ... I still would want O'Grady up for his LH bat and some OF protection with a limping Pham and Myers. Baring another RP injury ... to get O'Grady up option Northcraft or DFA Mateo. With days offs, probably Northcraft is optioned and the go with 8 RP.
Might be later in the season but Preller may be out looking for a player to improve the bench ... maybe a corner OF that is a rental or even has value into 2022.
#406 · April 26, 2021, 1:33 pm
Per SDUT ...
Last night the Padres became the first team to win a game despite ...
-being on the road
-facing a team with a .700+ win pct (min. 20 games)
-trailing by 6+ runs
-in 7th inning or later
... since the Giants did so against the 50-21 Cubs at Wrigley on July 9, 1918.
So now you know 😊
#407 · April 26, 2021, 1:34 pm
Also per SDUT ...
The run of top starting pitchers the Padres faced over the past 10 days was difficult to believe. The seven starters they faced in that span have a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the 21 combined starts they have made against teams other than the Padres. In those 21 games, they have allowed a combined .166 batting average.
Against the Padres, those pitchers had a collective ERA of 1.78, a collective WHIP of 0.81 and allowed the Padres a .177 batting average.
🙂 This gets me off the ledge about how poor our offense has looked!
#408 · April 26, 2021, 4:29 pm
I sense most fans (and a lot of the media) want to see Snell go 6 innings or more consistently ... maybe we are wrong and the Padres are steps ahead in their plan for Snell for 2021. Consider:
1. Snell has 133 ML starts since 2016 ... his average start went just a tick over 5 innings. In his Cy Young year his a average start was 5 2/3 innings. At 28, in the base case, the Padres had to be looking that in a trade is that ... he is a 5 inning pitcher ... albeit a good one. They were probably OK with that and any upside would be a bonus.
2. Innings per season since 2016: 89-129-181-107-50 with some history of minor injuries. Going into the season most pundits suggest 150 innings after a shorten 2020 would be max for most pitchers. So in Snell’s case limiting to 5 inning starts for 30 starts gets him .. you guessed it ... 150 innings a level he has exceeded only once. Hopefully that keeps him healthy and fresh enough to be effective in the playoffs.
Maybe not pushing Snell to be something he isn’t in 2021 actually enhances his value for the full season and playoffs? Maybe not what we want but maybe the Padres front office is better at this that we are? (Excluding that 2/3 inning PITT disaster) his other 4 starts are 0 - 2 - 2 - 2 runs over 20 innings (ERA under 3.00) and that should set up Padre wins.
We will see how this plays out in a long season but this strategy could work especially if Darvish, Musgrove, and the others can go longer and save some pen to cover Snell’s starts OR the offense gets on track to build some mega leads taking the pressure of how the pen is used.
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#409 · April 26, 2021, 11:16 pm
RED = incl Minors... Innings per season since 2015: 134 IP Minors (Total: 25 G / 23 Starts)
2016: 89 +63 minors = 152 Total (31 Starts MLB/Minors)
2017: 129 +44 minors = 173 Total (31 Starts MLB/Minors)
2018: 181 Cy Young winner (31 Starts)
2019: 107 Injury? + Playoffs: 5 = 112 Total (23 Starts + 1)
2020: 50 + 30 = 80 Total (60-game season: 11 Starts + 6)
On the bright side, Snell has stayed really healthy; didn't arrive full time in MLB until 2018. 2019 missed about 8 starts. I'm guessing there's less than 20 SP in MLB who have missed </= 10 of their starts total over the last 5 years. The history of being durable and the below market AAV for his 3 years does hold a LOT of value.
But since 2015 if my Math is right, he's averaged 5 1/3 IP/start. Durable, but not going to go as deep in starts as Darvish.
Some of that COULD be Rays & their philosophy, but so far his command hasn't even been close to good enough to go deeper in games.
Think Pads would LOVE to see him go 6+ every start, but you can't do it if you're 3-2 every batter. Tingler can't give a guy "one more batter" if it takes him 6-7-8 pitches to get through each hitter BEFORE he's tiring in the 5th after 80-90 pitches. Hopefully he finds whatever he needs to start being more efficient, but I'm dubious. Been pitching a long time; the command may simply be what it is.
To me, it's pretty simple: Pads did not give up what they did for Snell to get even a "very durable" #4 type SP with mediocre command going 5 IP/start... they probably could've gotten 20-25 5 IP Starts out of Patino! Snell needs to perform like a clear, good #3 SP or better for Padres to really "win" the trade. Still early, but hasn't so far.
#410 · April 26, 2021, 11:32 pm
I hope Tingler rotates in the bench heavily here; I'd like to see as many regulars as possible get 1 day off in the 2 game series, so getting 2 days in a row off sometime before Giants series. LAD series was like playing a 7 game playoff series... hugely draining. Profar & Jake in particular have been overused. Grisham & Myers have GOT to have health protected. ... but "that Tatis guy" DID already have a lot of time off.... 🙂
Simultaneously have to try to get bench more involved & clicking.