Quote from Brian Connelly on March 5, 2021, 10:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2021, 9:30 am

Think they can put Castillo on waivers now (don't think they will). My understanding of the rule is that during the regular season a player cannot be put on waivers if he is on the IL and to come off the IL he has to be ready to play.

In Castillo's case, this is ST (off season) and he is not on the IL ... so should be free game.

At 25, 4 years of control, 2 minor league option years, league minimum contract, and (we think) still major closer potential post TJ ... IL makes the most sense (and the 60 day if need for roster space). Loose one control year in 2021 but in 2022 could activate him and option him preserving 3 control years as he recovers. Potential replacement for Pomeranz / Strahm preserved for 2023+ at a small price.

Too early to worry about the 40 man for next winter ... a lot of current bodies could be gone and not sure that (except for Gore) who will emerge as needing protection from Rule 5. Cross that bridge when they come to it.

Basically keep Castillo because you can for a reasonable price while opening up a 40 man slot in a pennant race if needed.

 

You might be right about rules, but I don't think so.  This sure seems like where the benefit of being on the 40-man roster would logically take effect.  Let's say a more marginal P (ex. Taylor Williams) requires TJ in ST.  I just don't think the Pads can cut that guy from his MLB contractual salary just b/c he got injured.  Seems like the practice of DFA'ing guys who need TJ would be rampant (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, etc, etc) b/c you're saving $ on a fringe 40-man roster guy who can't play.  But I don't ever remember seeing this.

The year Espinoza had 2nd TJ surgery he had already been optioned down to Minors, so was already contractually receiving Minors pay as per 40-man roster CBA rules.  TOTALLY different to Option a guy in MLB camp technically still "on" the MLB team BECAUSE he got hurt.  I also can't ever remember seeing this happen.

Just seems logical MLBPA would specifically protect its members from losing MLB pay due to situations like this.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 5, 2021, 10:46 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2021, 9:45 am

Guerra is a different calculation with no minor league options and no time to earn a ML slot on a contender. 10 IL makes sense (given his potential) ... work at the alternate site ... 30 day rehab (think that is still in for pitchers) ... then in late May / early June make a decision. Decision based a bit on how Guerra performs in that timeframe and a bit on the state of the ML pen (injuries, ineffectiveness). Again this is preserving an asset with potential for as long as they can without risking a waiver claim in ST.

Side note: think if either one cleared waivers then next winter they would become minor league FA ... some risk there of resigning them.

 

"Slow rolling" Guerra similar to Strahm, but due to IL, is beneficial to Guerra.  Think/hope you're right about 30 day rehab.   Just depends how he does.  If he's doing well, it's a tough decision, but at least he improves his trade value if we have no room for him.  If he's struggling, he may clear waivers, which is ideal in the sense that he gets the remainder of season to pitch in Minors in our org.  If he does well, we could re-select him before end of season to "regain" control, but he would have to be & stay in MLB.

Castillo is simple; 60-day IL, make the decision end of year when required to take guys off 60-day.  Wingenter will be full go ST 2022, but Castillo probably won't.  Assume the entire point of keeping Wingenter on IL likely all 2021 WAS to control him in 2022.  Castillo a different situation timing wise, plus having missed 2 seasons PRIOR to this injury.  Worth mentioning that both Wingenter & Castillo will actually be Arb eligible next year, but they obviously won't get much of a raise with their injury history.  They do both have options which helps their value.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2021, 11:39 am

Not sure but don’t think any of Castillo’s injuries prior to this TJ were arm issues .... obliques, et al. ... so that is good I guess. Recovery rate on TJ is good and Castillo’s projection is high ... worth sticking with him even if at the end it is only 2 years of a quality RP in the ML (probably at a very low cost). Worth the money to retain him.

Pretty sure I am right on the waivers issue ... key being actions that can be taken in the regular season vs in the off season (including ST). Owners probably were trying to avoid having their offseason rosters filled with players that were on the injured list at the end of the previous season ... players they may not value ... and not be able to protect real prospects for the Rule 5 or adding players during the winter unless releasing a healthy player. No 60 day IL exemption during the off season (actually technically no IL at all). The 60 day exemption begins as ST begins.

Not that dissimilar in concept with the teams being able to release players prior to the start of the season at a fraction of their contact value. Teams are just not going to get locked into players not on guaranteed contracts until the regular season starts. Once the season starts ... release rules change.

Somewhat an academic debate as it concerns Castillo .. pretty close to 100% he is retained and eventually on the 60 day IL ... retained on the 40 man over the winter ... then start 2022 (if necessary) back on the 60 day IL or optioned to extended ST.

Could be a lot of open slots at the end of the season with Pham, Melancon, Kela FA and likely Stammen bought out. Chance both Mateo and O’Grady are gone (or easily DFA). Not sure Altavilla or Williams will survive. Gore has to be added and maybe a couple of non-roster RP pop up ... but seems a lot of room for activation of Clevinger, Wingenter, and Castillo if needed .. wild card being Rule 5 protects (really can’t make that call until after they actually play 2021).

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 5, 2021, 12:34 pm

I just don't remember a "TJ release to avoid paying salary" move ever happening.  I guess that could be b/c the player was valued enough to be on the 40-man in first place, but it seems like a "40th man" somewhere would have gone through this in ST & gotten unceremoniously dumped vs being put on IL?  But I don't pay too much attention to other teams.

This is why I thought the ("140 MM" payroll) Padres WOULD DFA/Non tender Wingenter this past offseason; to save the $ of a player not going to pitch likely all year.  By keeping him on roster this season, they obviously intend to keep him next year.

The question is whether Pads have that same choice right now with Castillo?  You say "Yes", I say "No".   If I'm right, 60-day IL doesn't mean they neccly intend to keep him on roster into 2022.  But if you're right, the choice TO put him on IL specifically shows they DO intend to keep him on 40-man roster through this offseason into next year.

Quote from Ben Davey on March 5, 2021, 9:12 pm

We do know that Perdomo (who was not a FA) was DFA AFTER having TJ surgery in October.  He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers even though he will miss all of 2021.

During the offseason, teams can get rid of whatever players they want injured or healthy.  Remember the team cannot have over a 40 man roster by the winter meetings (40 man + 60 day IL - FA).  During the season, I do not believe players on the 60 day can be let go.

Castillo was going to be a bonus for the pen.  As it standshis injury, plus the injury to Guerra, and the continued rehab by Strahm (he said he was 50-50 about being ready for OD), it might mean Morejon makes the team out of ST.  Pom, Pagan, Keila, Melancon, Hill, Stammen, Johnson, Morejon is 13 pitchers right there and thats without counting Altavilla, Baez, or Williams

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 4:56 am

14 for opening day:

SP: Darvish - Snell - Musgrove - Paddack  - Morejon

LHRP: Pomeranz - Hill - Weathers (can spot start in April given the schedule)

RHRP: Melancon - Pagan - Kela - Adams - Johnson - Stammen

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Weathers down with Strahm‘s return

Lamet returns ... Kela down if they feel the need for a 6th starter / long relief with Morejon ... otherwise Morejon down.

Subject to change with additional injuries (likely) over the next 3 weeks ... think Kela ... opening up the Altavilla, Williams’ opportunity. Guerra looks already to be set up for the IL.

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 7:15 am

Although Kim has been fine so far in ST ... not seeming overmatched given not striking out much in limited ABs .... some speculation that he may need a bit more time to acclimate to baseball in the states. His contract allows him to be optioned as I recall plus Cronenworth is doing well in ST ... so, is time possible we see Kim sent to the alternate site as the season starts? Profar can play INF and, for now, Mateo can be kept on the 26 man along with retaining O’Grady.

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Should we also be keeping an eye on Pham’s health. He is not playing much early to give him more recovery time (which was more severe that initially reported) ... apparently not near full strength impacting his offense and defense. So, is it possible they take the slow approach with Pham (like Strahm and maybe Lamet) and start with him on the IL? Go with Profar in LF and O’Grady / Mateo in OF reserve.

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Preller clearly wants the team healthy for Oct and playing a less than healthy player in April may actually worsen the situation and take them out longer (if not the season). Want to win in April ... and given the healthy alternatives ... better chance to win in April with healthy players than ailing players.

Could be a series of unexpected moves at the end of ST.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 9:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 6, 2021, 4:56 am

14 for opening day:

SP: Darvish - Snell - Musgrove - Paddack  - Morejon

LHRP: Pomeranz - Hill - Weathers (can spot start in April given the schedule)

RHRP: Melancon - Pagan - Kela - Adams - Johnson - Stammen

====

Weathers down with Strahm‘s return

Lamet returns ... Kela down if they feel the need for a 6th starter / long relief with Morejon ... otherwise Morejon down.

Subject to change with additional injuries (likely) over the next 3 weeks ... think Kela ... opening up the Altavilla, Williams’ opportunity. Guerra looks already to be set up for the IL.

The issue with DFA'ing Altavilla & Williams right off the bat is depth over the 162 game season.  What if a RP on O.D. roster gets hurt the 1st week?  You may have just lost those 2 players if they're claimed off waivers.

That being said, it's REALLY hard to see either of those 2 plus Guerra sticking ON roster all season long.  Just too inflexible.  So they may be depth "band aids" that inevitably go off roster at some point in the year.  Think they are really competing against all the other NRI's.  If the Pads think say Miguel Diaz is better than either of these guys, it makes more sense to add him to roster in one of their spots because he has the huge benefit of being option-able.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 6, 2021, 9:35 am

Was looking at the schedule trying to figure out where to insert the 6th starter.

7 (Home) games in a row to open season, then off day, then 17 games in a row!  Then 2 off days sandwich 2 games @ Dbacks.

If use the 6th SP in the 1st stretch, end up with 7 days between starts for all but Darvish.  I'd rather see #1 & #2 make their 2nd start on normal rest.  Get to the off day.  Then go (on extra rest): 3, 4, 5, 1, 2... THEN insert the 6th SP for the 13th game of season keeping all on extra rest.

The other thing that caught my eye is we host LAD 4/16-18 for 3 games, then 4 games at LAD 4/22-25.  It sets up that, if on a 6-man rotation, whoever starts the 1st 3 games would be in line to start 3 of 4 the away series.  Too convoluted to "back into" this being our #1-3 SP, BUT... I wonder if Pads are eyeing one of those series for the return of Lamet?  Even as an "opener", could influence those games.