Quote from BoosterSD on March 4, 2021, 2:33 pm

According to Acee, Castillo to undergo TJ surgery. So his 40 man spot is now open via IL.

Does he have options left?

If not, would now be a good time to try and run him through waivers to get him off the 40 man? I know his 40 man spot can be used all season long with the IL; however, after the season, he will have to be added and carried for a period of time, before being able to go back to the IL, correct?

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 4, 2021, 3:48 pm

Javy  Guerra with a UCL strain.

Out 2-4 weeks.

Bad timing for this guy.

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 4:13 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on March 4, 2021, 2:33 pm

According to Acee, Castillo to undergo TJ surgery. So his 40 man spot is now open via IL.

Does he have options left?

If not, would now be a good time to try and run him through waivers to get him off the 40 man? I know his 40 man spot can be used all season long with the IL; however, after the season, he will have to be added and carried for a period of time, before being able to go back to the IL, correct?

Well he does have two option years left ... and since he has less than 3 years ML service he can be option “injured”. However, that occupies a roster slot for all of 2021.

Alternatively, could be put on the 60 day IL ... clear a roster slot for 2021 and deal with returning him to the 40 man at the end of the season ... by then who knows the flexibility for the 40 man. Basically, buy time to make the call.

Alternatively, alternatively ... put him on waivers and see if any team will take the gamble on his upside. Would some team take a pitcher having TJ and may not be available until 2023? Maybe since he is just 25 ... paid near league minimum ... 4 control years ... and can be kept on the 60 day IL if the 40 man is an issue. Remember the Padres signed Richards knowing he would not pitch the following year ... so not an unheard of concept.

From the Padres perspective ... do the Padres still see upside after TJ? If yes, and for a low price, probably go the 60 day IL route now and re evaluate next winter. Opens a roster slot if needed for the flexibility during the season (maybe trade deadline adds).

I will toss in one other consideration ... the Padres organization is building a reputation as being supportive of players and their well being ... not sure jettisoning a player after he gets injured fits that model. Good for Castillo but positive for the other players that they see the “concern” by the Padres. 60 day IL and ML pay doesn’t cost the Padres all that much by may earn a favorable response for the rest of the team.

Quote from fenn68 on March 4, 2021, 4:26 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 4, 2021, 3:48 pm

Javy  Guerra with a UCL strain.

Out 2-4 weeks.

Bad timing for this guy.

 

No options so would expect an initial move to the 10 day IL and Guerra being sent to that alternate site for “recovery” and then the 20 day “rehab” .... all that could stretch out for some time ... and this assumes the injury remains “minor”.

I guess if NOT TJ but a long recovery ... might be a 60 day IL candidate at some point but clearly Castillo goes on first with the TJ.

 

Quote from LynchMob on March 5, 2021, 7:35 am

A perspective from a "fantasy expert" ...

BUCK DAVIDSON PAN: Health concerns and several advanced stats tell me that Lamet is in for a significant regression in 2021. His 2020 walk rate and homer rate were well below his norms, and he was the beneficiary of a miniscule .234 BABIP. He should miss plenty of bats again, but I am not expecting elite ratios from him in 2021.

BUCK DAVIDSON PAN: Darvish still misses a lot of bats, but an uncharacteristically low homer rate and elevated strand rate during his stellar 2020 campaign tells me to prepare for a significant fallback in 2021.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 5, 2021, 7:59 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 4, 2021, 2:33 pm

According to Acee, Castillo to undergo TJ surgery. So his 40 man spot is now open via IL.

Does he have options left?

If not, would now be a good time to try and run him through waivers to get him off the 40 man? I know his 40 man spot can be used all season long with the IL; however, after the season, he will have to be added and carried for a period of time, before being able to go back to the IL, correct?

Pretty sure the players union would NOT be down with that.  You can't waive guys on IL, and I'm sure that also applies to guys who are obviously headed to IL with a real injury that doesn't allow them to play.  Being on the 40-man protects him... in a member of a union/workers' rights sense.

He'll ultimately be on 60-day IL all year opening a 40-man roster spot.  But you're right, he will have to come off when the season ends, and "count" against the 40-man, as will Clevinger & Wingenter (if not already active by then).  IMO despite the obvious talent, and having 2 minors options, he will be DFA/traded or non tendered.  These 3 guys on 60-day = the 3 "true" FA (Pham, Melancon, Kela).  Stammen a likely buyout, Profar likely to remain a Padre.  Bottom line, even with Gore being the only in -season "add to roster lock", just don't see Castillo remaining on 40-man this offseasson.

Same with Guerra?  He needed this ST more than anyone.  Really devastates his chances with Pads.  Can "slow roll" him working his way back  when healthy & teams have set their early season rosters.  Rules about how long he can officially rehab on a minors assignment once healthy enough to do so.  Then Pads will have a decision to make.  Will depend on health of rest of bullpen at that point, but with Strahm already in a similar position, chances Guerra is DFA/Traded increase.  There IS a better chance due to the injury & timing that if he's DFA no one claims him.  That would be ideal for the Pads: get him off 40-man & develop in minors.  But just seems like a bad team will still claim him with his upside.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on March 5, 2021, 8:43 am

Quote from LynchMob on March 5, 2021, 7:35 am

A perspective from a "fantasy expert" ...

BUCK DAVIDSON PAN: Health concerns and several advanced stats tell me that Lamet is in for a significant regression in 2021. His 2020 walk rate and homer rate were well below his norms, and he was the beneficiary of a miniscule .234 BABIP. He should miss plenty of bats again, but I am not expecting elite ratios from him in 2021.

BUCK DAVIDSON PAN: Darvish still misses a lot of bats, but an uncharacteristically low homer rate and elevated strand rate during his stellar 2020 campaign tells me to prepare for a significant fallback in 2021.

I looked into it, this is a guy who does not watch baseball but looks at numbers and trends.  Not horrendous, but pitchers can be drastically different from one year to the next.

Take Lamet's "norms"  In 2017 (rookie season) which usually is not great.  He went 2/3 of a season before going down with TJ.  Missed all of 2018 then in 2019 only pitched the last part of the season still rehabbing from the surgery.  So his "norms" constitute roughly one full season (187 innings) over two seasons sandwiched by a TJ surgery. ...  Great analysis

Darvish is slightly different, but again dont need analytics to explain.  In 2017 Darvish got blasted with the Dodgers in the World Series.  Report came out that he was tipping pitches (and the Astros were cheating).  He then spent most of the 2018 season injured.  He admitted that in both 2018 and 2019 he was so focused on not tipping pitches that he lost control.  He was falling behind batter after batter, which like most pitchers causes more walks and more HR.  He was averaging about 15 HR in the Texas bandbox but gave up 33 in Chicago?  Last year he gave interviews and said he essentially gave up, went back to his old form of not caring and his success returned.  So who is the real Darvish, the four time all-star or the pitcher that led the league in HR allowed in 2019?  Im optimistic that answer is obvious

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2021, 9:10 am

Regression to "norm" is always fraught with potential invalidating conditions.

The obvious young pitchers develop and older pitchers fade sending them away from the norm not towards it.

Was the 2020 Lamet better than the earlier version due to coaching and development ... Padres seem to think so.

Now with Darvish, his long history of quality results is a pretty good base but need to factor in moving from the more hitter friendly NL Central to the less hitter friendly NL West ball parks in SD, LA, SF. Basically way more to consider than regression to the norm ... and impossible to project correctly given the uncontrollable variables.

Quote from fenn68 on March 5, 2021, 9:30 am

Think they can put Castillo on waivers now (don't think they will). My understanding of the rule is that during the regular season a player cannot be put on waivers if he is on the IL and to come off the IL he has to be ready to play.

In Castillo's case, this is ST (off season) and he is not on the IL ... so should be free game.

At 25, 4 years of control, 2 minor league option years, league minimum contract, and (we think) still major closer potential post TJ ... IL makes the most sense (and the 60 day if need for roster space). Loose one control year in 2021 but in 2022 could activate him and option him preserving 3 control years as he recovers. Potential replacement for Pomeranz / Strahm preserved for 2023+ at a small price.

Too early to worry about the 40 man for next winter ... a lot of current bodies could be gone and not sure that (except for Gore) who will emerge as needing protection from Rule 5. Cross that bridge when they come to it.

Basically keep Castillo because you can for a reasonable price while opening up a 40 man slot in a pennant race if needed.